Rick Gagliano | December 20-23
All times Eastern
Poinsettia
Utah (-8 1/2, 66) vs. Navy Dec. 20, 9 p.m. ESPN - In this matchup of a pair of 8-4 teams, the Utes have the unwelcome pleasure of dealing with the #1 rushing offense in the nation . The Midshipmen's numbers are truly sensational, as their runners have rambled for 4218 yards in 12 games (351.5 ypg) through the nearly exclusive use of the option formation. Beyond their stunning execution, what makes Navy's offense so dangerous is their ability to pass, once they've convinced a team that they're running on every down. The Utes will counter with a solid rush defense, but preparing for the option look is difficult and the additional time may not be a benefit for the defense.
Utah will have to contain the Middies, as the Utes' offense is not spectacular and could have a difficult time if forced to come from behind. Utah allowed more than 27 points just once, giving up 35 at Louisville, in a game they won. Navy has only been beaten by double digits twice - by Rutgers and Wake Forest - and have won four straight.
Prediction: Midshipmen 24 Utes 21
New Orleans
Florida Atlantic (-2 1/2, 67) vs. Memphis Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ESPN2 - A 7-5 entrant from the Sun Belt, the Florida Atlantic Owls rely on a big play offense, centered around Rusty Smith (28 TDs, 7 INTs) and a bevy of receivers led by Cortez Gent and Jason Harmon, who accounted for 117 catches between them. With the evident deficiencies shown by 7-5 Memphis - they twice allowed 56 points in losses to UCF and East Carolina - the Owls should have little problem putting up points and may win this one handily.
The Owls beat a very good Troy team on Dec. 1 to capture the Sun Belt title and four of their five losses came outside their conference, to Oklahoma St., Kentucky, Florida and South Florida. The Memphis Tigers allow 31.3 points per game and have hold only two opponents under 21.
Prediction: Owls 41 Tigers 27
Papajohns.com
Cincinnati (-11, 56) vs. Southern Miss Dec. 22, 1 p.m. ESPN2 - In what may be the worst pairing in the entire three weeks of bowl games, 7-5 Southern Miss comes in as the 2nd-largest underdog on the board. Beaten by more than 20 points by Tennessee, Boise St. and UCF, they are a team with limitations on both sides of the ball. Not so for Cincinnati, which played in the rugged Big East and lost only three times, to Louisville, Pitt and West Virginia, all conference opponents. The Bearcats average 36.8 points per outing, and allow only 18.6. A statistical mismatch which should manifest itself on the field.
Prediction: Bearcats 48 Golden Eagles 17
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New Mexico
Nevada vs. New Mexico (-3, 59) Dec. 22, 4:30 p.m. ESPN - In what may turn out to be somewhat of a mismatch, the 8-4 Lobos have a real weapon in kicker John Sullivan, who made 25 of 28 filed goals this season and was a perfect 9-for-9 from 40-49 yards. That means whenever the Lobos get to the Wolf Pack 35, there's a good chance they'll put up at least 3 points. And they figure to have plenty of opportunities as 6-6 Nevada's defense is a serious weak spot, having held only 2 opponents under 20 points.
While the Wolf Pack can put up plenty of points (36.3 ppg), they allow an average of 32.9 and that certainly spells trouble. Of New Mexico's four losses, three came against quality teams, Utah, BYU and TCU.
Prediction: Lobos 43 Wolf Pack 35
Las Vegas
UCLA vs. BYU (-6, 47) Dec. 22, 8 p.m. ESPN - An unusually up-and-down season for 6-6 UCLA culminated in losses in 5 of their last 7 after a 4-1 start. Oddly, those two wins came against Cal and Oregon, two of the better teams in the PAC-10. The losses occurred mostly because of an ineffective offense, while the Bruins' defense is actually pretty good.
The BYU Cougars may be one of college football's best unheard stories. They went 10-2, sweeping the Mountain West conference (8-0), with their only losses at UCLA and at Tulsa. Both of those games were in September, however, and BYU has strung together 9 straight wins since. Usually notable for their offensive prowess, this Cougars squad relies on a swift, hard-hitting defense which held 7 opponents to 16 points or less.
Prediction: Cougars 27 Bruins 16
Hawaii
Boise State (-10 1/2, 70) vs. East Carolina Dec. 23, 8 p.m. ESPN - One has to question the thought process that went into this mismatch. Boise State rumbled to a 10-2 record, losing only to Washington and Hawaii, while mostly demolishing their WAC competition. The Pirates, on the other hand, stumbled to a 7-5 mark with losses to the likes of Southern Miss, NC State and Marshall, though they did manage a 6-2 mark in Conference USA games. The Broncos have nearly double-digit advantages on both points scored and allowed. Good thing this game will be played on Sunday in Hawaii, where almost nobody will have to see it.
Prediction: Broncos 56 Pirates 17
All times Eastern
