Rick Gagliano | December 26-29
All times Eastern.
Holiday
Arizona State vs. Texas (-2 1/2, 62) Dec. 27, 8 p.m. ESPN - Odd matchup, though the line may be even more odd, making the 9-3 Longhorns a slight favorite over a Sun Devils team that ran off 8 straight wins before suffering losses to Oregon and USC and ended 10-2. While ASU generally cruised by most of their West Coast opponents, Texas had some close calls, winning three games by 3 points, and losing key contests against Kansas State, Oklahoma and Texas A&M, with the 38-30 loss to the Aggies their season finale. The Sun Devils have more firepower on offense and a defense that can hold their own against most of the better teams in the country. A PAC-10 win should not be a surprise here.
Prediction: Sun Devils 35 Longhorns 28
Texas
Texas Christian (-3 1/2, 59 1/2) vs. Houston Dec. 28, 8 p.m. NFL Network - There may not be much interest in this game outside East Texas, but the participants will play like it's the Super Bowl. At 7-5, 2007 was a down year for the usually-ranked Horned Frogs. Their losses came to quality teams for the most part, with BYU, Utah, Texas, Air Force and Wyoming chalking up the wins. The Houston Cougars defense was the Jekyl-and-Hyde of college football, helping the team to an 8-4 record, but sometimes not showing up much at all. While TCU holds a substantial edge on defense, Houston's offensive punch should carry the day. The Cougars averaged 36.3 ppg, and only once scored less than 24 points.
Prediction: Cougars 34 Horned Frogs 20
Champ Sports
Boston College (-3 1/2, 56) vs. Michigan State Dec. 28, 5 p.m. ESPN - Somewhere out there in football-land, somebody thinks the Big Ten can match up with any conference, thus we get this Big East vs. Big Ten showdown. In all likelihood, the Boston College Eagles will win this game by 10 or more points. Michigan State went 3-5 in conference play and are bowl eligible thanks to wins over the likes of UAB, Bowling Green, Pitt and Notre Dame. BC has only 3 losses, all to quality teams - Maryland, Florida State and Virginia Tech. The Eagles have a solid defense to go along with one of the more proficient in the country and at one time were 8-0. It's surprising that this line isn't much larger.
Prediction: Eagles 31 Spartans 21
Emerald
Maryland vs. Oregon State (-5, 48 1/2) Dec. 28, 8 p.m. ESPN - Both of these teams had successful 2007 campaigns which included big wins over ranked opponents. Oregon State finished up at 8-4 with a win over a wounded Oregon team, but they had already knocked off potent Cal, 31-28, earlier in the year. Maryland put their stamp on the season with a 34-24 win at Rutgers in September, and then beat Boston College, 42-35 in November. The Terps only finished 6-6, due to a really rugged ACC and non-conference schedule. Neither of these teams put up many points, so the focus should be on defense and turnover potential. Always wise to take the points in this kind of contest, and Maryland's propensity to rise up on defense give them an edge.
Prediction: Terrapins 17 Beavers 14
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Meineke Car Care
Wake Forest (-3, 48) vs. Connecticut Dec. 29, 1 p.m. ESPN - The UConn Huskies proved this season that they were the real deal, playing all the way to their last game before yielding the Big East title to West Virginia, in a 66-21 thumping. Before that, however, they beat down some of the best teams in the East, including Rutgers, Louisville and South Florida. Their only losses besides the Mountaineers were at Cincinnati and at Virginia. They are relentless on defense and feature a bruising rushing attack. The 8-4 Demon Deacons are very similar. Rough and ready on both sides of the ball, they were only blown out once, 44-10, at Clemson, and interestingly lost to Virginia by one point - the same margin as UConn's loss to the Cavaliers. If you like football played with passion and physicality, this is your game. Picking a winner will be tougher, though the Deacons earn a small vote of confidence for preparedness.
Prediction: Demon Deacons 24 Huskies 17
Liberty
Central Florida (-3, 58 1/2) vs. Mississippi State Dec. 29, 4:30 p.m. ESPN - Want to see a no-name team do a number on a big conference squad? The talented Central Florida Knights won the Conference USA title with a 44-25 thumping of a very good Tulsa team, extending their winning streak to seven games. In that streak against all conference foes, the Knights' average margin of victory was 21 points. Other than a 64-12 pounding by South Florida, 9-3 UCF handled every comer, losing in overtime to Texas, 35-32, while dropping a 52-38 decision at East Carolina. Keying their explosive offense is Kevin Smith, who led all Division 1 rushers with 2448 yards, an average of 188.3 yards per game.
The Bulldogs went through the SEC at 4-4, and were 7-5 overall, but played a solid schedule, including powerhouses LSU, Tennessee and West Virginia (all losses). They managed to chalk up wins over Kentucky, Auburn and Alabama along the way, but it's doubtful they'll have an answer for Smith and the UCF offense. What is likely to be overlooked here is the UCF defense, which is very effective against the run.
Prediction: Knights 41 Bulldogs 21
Alamo
Penn State (-5 1/2, 51 1/2) vs. Texas A&M Dec. 29, 8 p.m. ESPN - Each of these teams puts up around 30 points per game, but the Nittany Lions only allow 17.3 per game as opposed to the Aggies' average of 26.1 allowed. Both of these teams lost key games to conference opponents and beat the lower tier teams, though three of Penn State's four losses were by seven points or less and the other was to Ohio State. When the Aggies lost, they lost big: by 17 to Miami, 28 to Texas Tech, 28 to Oklahoma and 14 to Missouri. Their closest loss by by 8 at home against Kansas.
With Anthony Morelli maturing at QB, a stout defense and JoPa's success in bowl games, Penn St. looks very strong here.
Prediction: Nittany Lions 41 Aggies 17
All times Eastern
