NCAA College Football 2007 Bowl Games National Championship Pick

Fearless Rick's College Football Bowl Games National Championship Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 7, 2008

All times Eastern - check back on Dec. 19 for complete lines and picks.

BCS Championship Game
Ohio State vs. LSU (-4, 49 1/2) Jan. 7, 8 p.m. FOX -

Key Stats:
Ohio State: Overall record 11-1; Big Ten champion.

Offense: 32.0 ppg; 397.1 ypg;
Passing Yards: 2357; Rushing Yards: 2408

Defense: 10.7 ppg (1); 225.3 ypg (1);
Pass Yds. allowed:1778 (1); Rush Yds. allowed: 925 (1)

LSU: Overall record: 11-2; SEC champion.

Offense: 38.7 ppg; 448.2 ypg;
Passing Yards: 2980; Rushing Yards: 2846

Defense: 19.6 ppg; 283.8 ypg;
Pass Yds. allowed: 2350; Rush Yds. allowed: 1340

Stats only tell part of the story of how these two teams became unlikely participants in the game that will determine - for better or worse - college football's national champion.

Besides 11-1 Kansas, Ohio State is the only major conference team in ranked in the Top 10 with just one loss, and the BCS arithmetic managed to boost them into the #1 spot when both Missouri and West Virginia fell on the final week of the regular season. Missouri lost for the second time this season, to Oklahoma, in the Big 12 championship, while the Mountaineers dropped their final game to lowly Pitt.

Because the Big 10 doesn't play a conference championship, and because the conference was considered one of the weaker of the majors, Ohio State's 1-loss season has been scrutinized and criticized, but here they are.

--- Story continues below ---

LSU suffered two losses - both in overtime to ranked SEC opponents Arkansas and Kentucky - but managed to skip past Tennessee in the SEC championship and into the national title game past the likes of Oklahoma, USC and Virginia Tech.

Ohio State played two teams that are still ranked in the BCS Top 25 - Illinois and Wisconsin - and lost to one of them. Illinois beat the Buckeyes in Columbus, 28-21, on November 10, after easily handling Wisconsin a week prior. The Buckeyes boast the best scoring defense in the nation at 10.7 points per game and their offense is steady but hardly considered overwhelming.

LSU seemed to proceed through the season more on reputation rather than performance, though they did top four teams still ranked in the Top 25. Those were Virginia Tech, Florida, Auburn and Tennessee. Only the win over Virginia Tech was convincing. The Tigers beat Florida by 4 points, Auburn by 6 (on the last play of the game) and Tennessee by 7 (on a late interception). Curiously, the teams that beat them - Kentucky and Arkansas - are not currently ranked.

What stands out in this matchup is the discrepancy between the defenses. The Buckeyes held every opponent except Illinois to under 17 points, while the Tigers allowed opponent comebacks in a number of games. Ohio State's defense should be able to keep LSU in check for most of this game and will resort to smart play calling and field position to grind out a win.

In a game that has an incredible amount of meaning but will be doubted as the crowing of a national champion, the Buckeye defense will provide the winning margin. It isn't likely to be pretty, but Ohio State will finally break through their 0-8 record in bowl games versus SEC opponents.

Prediction: Buckeyes 20 Tigers 17

All times Eastern

Copyright 2007, 2008, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.