NFL Pro Football 2007-2008 AFC Conference Championships Picks

NFL Pro Football 2007 Conference Championship Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Conference Championships (AFC)

Rick Gagliano | Jan. 17

All times Eastern

Click here for NFC Championship Pick

3:00 pm San Diego at New England (-14, 46 1/2) - As expected, the New England Patriots are heavy favorites to win the AFC Championship and head to their 4th Super Bowl in the last 7 years. Their opponent, the San Diego Chargers, knocked off Indianapolis last week to get to this game, though they are substantially banged up coming in. Quarterback Philip Rivers, running back LaDainian Tomlinson and tight end Antonio Gates are all sporting injuries, though they all are expected to play.

The teams met in Week 2, with the Pats coming away with a 38-14 win. The biggest difference may be at cornerback, where Antonio Cromartie, who did not play in that game, has made a huge difference in the San Diego secondary. Cromartie picked off ten passes during the regular season, and had one last week against the Colts. He's as close as the Chargers have to a shut down corner, and he may line up against Randy Moss, or in zones on the strong side.

While Cromartie and the San Diego secondary will show Tom Brady any number of different looks, don't expect them to play the "keeping everything in front of them" 2-deep zone that Jacksonville employed in last week's 31-20 divisional round loss. That defense is a recipe for losing in a close game, as the Patriots spread the field and easily moved into the red zone on every possession.

The Chargers will pressure Brady with some blitz packages as they have the right linebackers with which to get in on the QB - Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips. The two linebackers have terrorized opposing quarterbacks to the tune of 21 sacks. The Chargers preferred style of defense is one that is attacking, though against the Patriots and the slick moves of Brady, the results can be devastating.

Offensively, the Chargers have weapons all over the field, even if Gates and Tomlinson are slowed down. Chris Chambers was added to the receiving corps mid-season, and he's produced positive results. In the backfield, Michael Turner and Darren Sproles provide plenty of spark, plus, fullback Lorenzo Neal should play and be able to provide solid blocking in the passing and running game.

Obviously, the Chargers will have to deal with the highest scoring offense in the history of the NFL, one that is more adept at passing than running, though the Patriots can and will run the ball if the Chargers employ a 5 or 6 defensive back scheme. Last week, against the Jaguars, the Patriots took what they were given and won. This week, they will be looking to exploit the Chargers when they blitz and may use a good amount of misdirection and trickery to get the ball into the end zone.

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If there is one weakness on the Patriots, it is their defense. They've been exposed in the second half of the season as poor pass defenders, so if Philip Rivers is on (or if Billy Volek - who has a good deal of experience and actually engineered the winning drive last week - gets a hot hand) it could be a tedious afternoon in the New England secondary.

The Chargers are very good with screen passes, but that is also the play New England defenses best, so don't expect to see long gains by Tomlinson or Turner. The Chargers may actually choose to exploit the middle of the field more often, even though dangerous Rodney Harrison will be lurking. Short dumps, slants and draws may be San Diego's best formula for offensive success.

Weather may be a concern as it is expected to be cold and blustery. While the cold weather should favor the Pats, the Chargers will get a boost if it is excessively windy, as they can rely on a potent running game.

Bottom line is another New England win, but a very close contest. New England hasn't covered the spread in any of their past four games and haven't covered in 7 of their last nine. The Chargers have won 8 straight and covered all but one of those games. Those trends should continue. This game also should go well over the line.

Prediction: Patriots 35 Chargers 31

Click here for NFC Championship Pick

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