NFL Pro Football 2007 Divisional Playoff Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Divisional Playoffs

Rick Gagliano | Jan. 10

All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games.

Divisional Playoffs

Saturday, January 12

4:30 pm Seattle at Green Bay (-8, 42) - Divisional playoff weekend opens with a rematch of the 2004 playoff game won in overtime by Green Bay, 33-27. These are two of the most balanced teams in the NFC. Green Bay led the conference in yards per game (370.7), and 6th in yards allowed (313.3). Seattle isn't far behind, ranked 4th in offense (348.9) and 7th defensively (321.8), though they may be better than the stats imply, especially following the thorough manhandling of Washington in last week's 35-14 win.

In that game, Seattle's defensive front harassed Redskin QB Todd Collins all day long, sacking him three times and forcing a pair of interceptions that were returned for scores. That kind of pressure will be necessary to keep Brett Favre from ripping apart the secondary, as he has done to a score of teams this season.

Green Bay took a bye last week, as they finished with a regular season record of 13-3, tied with Dallas for the conference lead. Favre has been the story of the season, throwing for 4155 yards while tossing 28 TDs.

The Seattle offense is a bit more generic, though they are the epitome of the "West Coast Offense", reliant upon short to mid-range passes and timely runs from Shaun Alexander and Maurice Morris.

The spread is a little steep, as this is a fairly even match, and it's possible that the Seahawks are the better team. They played in the Super Bowl two years ago and the same team that lost to the Steelers is intact and improved at quite a few positions. The Seahawks are a better team than their record indicates and an outright win would not be a surprise.

Their receivers are more experienced than the Packers' and their defensive front may wreak havoc on Favre.

Prediction: Seahawks 27 Packers 24

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8:00 pm Jacksonville at New England (-13 1/2, 49 1/2) - Naturally, the Patriots come into this game as prohibitive favorites following their perfect 16-0 season. Though the Jags and Pats didn't play each other this season, there are comparisons available in common opponents.

Foremost among them are the Colts, whom the Pats beat, at Indy, 24-20, while the Jaguars lost twice to them, 29-7 (without David Garrard at QB), and 28-25 at Indy. The Patriots beat the Steelers convincingly in New England, 34-13, while the Jaguars beat them twice, 29-22 and 31-29, both in Pittsburgh. Both beat San Diego at home, Jacksonville winning 24-17, and the Patriots winning 38-14. Both teams hammered the Buffalo Bills.

There's a lot of similarity there, but New England's wins were, in every case, by wider margins, confirming that the Patriots are truly a team for the ages.

The game can be broken down in all manner of methodologies, but what it boils down to is a battle in the trenches. New England will have to contain the Jacksonville running game, while the Jaguars' front line defense will try to pressure QB Tom Brady and prevent downfield throws to his dangerous trio of receivers, Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker.

It's readily apparent that the Patriots have the more manageable task and should be able to stuff most of Jacksonville's runs for short gains. That puts the ball in Garrard's hands, and he's neither skilled enough nor experienced enough to handle the load all day without making mistakes.

The Patriots are other-worldly, with far too many weapons to stop on a consistent basis. Some may view this line as overly generous, but when the game clock begins winding down in the 4th quarter, the realization that it was indeed another sucker bet will begin to sink in for Jacksonville fans. The Jaguars are a good, capable team, but they have run into something special in the Patriots, and, on top of that, they're playing on New England's turf, where the average margin of victory has been 21.5 points.

The Patriots take another step closer to their ultimate destiny.

Prediction: Patriots 38 Jaguars 17

All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games

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