 |  |
| HOME | PRICE GUIDE | STORE | SPORTS | BUSINESS | NEWS/UPDATES | CONTACT | ARCHIVES |
|
SNAP CENTRAL | PREVIEWS: NCAA Top 25 | NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West | AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West NFL: Preseason: 1 2 3 4 Reg. Season: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Playoffs: Wild Card Division Conference Super Bowl NCAA: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Bowls Weeks 1 2 3 4 BCS National Title |
NFL Pro Football 2007 Super Bowl LXII
Analysis, Rick's Pick
|
DTMagazine Home
|
Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLII Picks
Rick Gagliano | February 1
New England Patriots (-12, 53) vs. New York Giants
Sunday, Feb. 3 - University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz. (FOX)
The Pick: New England Wins, Giants Cover, Under 53
Since these two teams met at Giants Stadium in the regular season finale, there are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from that 3-point outcome. Head-to-head meetings provide real game simulations for the coaches and players. Adjustments will surely be made on both sides, but many of the scenarios that played out in their first meeting will bear repeating.
First, the Giants can definitely hang with the Patriots for the duration. Since the final score of their first meeting was 38-35, there's little doubt of the Giants' ability to move the football up and down the field against New England's somewhat strained defense. In fact, the Giants led at the end of each quarter - 7-3, 21-16 and 28-23 - except the last one, the only one that really matters. That's a testament both to the Giants' resilience and the determination of the Patriots.
Second, the Patriots will find running against the Giants very difficult. They only averaged 1.7 yards per carry (26 rushes for 44 yards), which forced Brady to unleash 42 passes, completing 32 of them. Alternately, the Giants did quite well running the ball, hammering out 79 yards on 19 attempts for a 4.2 average. With that kind of rushing success, the Giants were able to mix in the passing game as they pleased, and they will be able to do it against the Pats on Sunday, chewing up valuable clock as they march downfield.
The Pats will likely come out in their spread offense, and the Giants will try to counter with five DBs, so expect New England to go to a no-huddle offense to keep the NY defense from making changes.
In that December 29 game each QB was sacked just once, so the Giants must have come to the realization that to get to Brady, they are going to have to blitz. The success of those blitzes will be key to the outcome of Super Bowl XLII. If the Giants have success, they will at least cover the spread and possibly spring the upset, but Brady and the Pats probably know what's coming and will have hot reads available on just about every play.
Only one other significant stat shows up from their previous encounter: Kick returns. The Giants returned 8 for 221 yards, including one Domenic Hixson took 74 yards to the house. The Patriots returned four for 88 yards, 22 per return compared to the Giants 27.6. It's not a major difference, but solid returns by the Giants should provide relatively good field position.
Both quarterbacks will have plenty of opportunities to find open receivers because there will be no wind, rain or snow with which to deal and neither secondary matches up well with the opposing wideouts, backs and tight ends.
If there's any edge or trend at all, it has to be with the Giants' defense. In their key 21-17 win over Dallas in the second round of the playoffs, the defense held Tony Romo to 50% completions and just 201 yards. While it's unlikely that they'll keep Tom Brady under even 60%, the Giants' defenders have to know that they need only a few big plays in key situations to win this game.
On the flip side of that, the Giants offense may go through the Patriots like a hot knife through whipped butter. They've had two weeks to analyze the deficiencies of the Patriots defense and they will have a game plan designed to exploit every soft spot. When it gets right down to it, the Giants may actually have the better defense, but stopping the New England offense consistently has proven - over and over again throughout the season - nearly impossible.
As far as the line is concerned, Las Vegas has been piling up huge sums with sucker bets on the undefeated Patriots for seven of the last eight weeks. They installed the Pats as 14 1/2-point favorites and the line dropped quickly to 12, where it has settled. Since New England's three previous Super Bowl wins have each been by exactly three points (see Super Bowl Scores), winning this one by more than seven would be out of character. The Patriots are a great team, one that is just does things a little bit better than the best in the league. They are very methodical and they don't take big risks. This won't be a blowout and the Giants could very easily find themselves on the winning side of the scoreboard.
The most likely outcome, when it's all said and done Sunday night, is that the New England Patriots will once again be hailed a dynasty, even though they'll have won four Super Bowls by a total of 12-17 points.
I like the Giants with the points and under 53. It also makes great sense to bet the Giants flat, as the money is line is a huge +400 for the underdogs from Gotham.
PREDICTION: New England Patriots 27 New York Giants 24
 |
Onsite Sports Links
NFL Schedule
NCAA Football Schedule
MLB Baseball Schedule
NHL Schedule
NBA Schedule
NASCAR Schedule
NCAA Basketball Schedule
Support our Sponsors
Quick Links:
NFL.com
|
