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NFL Pro Football 2007 Week 1 Picks
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DTMagazine Home Pro Football Week 1 Picks - late games
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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 1 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | Thursday, Sept. 6 - Sunday, Sept. 9
All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games.
Thursday, Sep. 6
New Orleans at Indianapolis (-6, 52) 8:30 pm - What a great game to kick off the NFL season. Peyton Manning and the Colts are certain to come out firing against the Saints, and just as certainly the Saints will run the ball down Indy's throat. When you break it all down, the advantage is clearly on the side of the Saints, because while the Saints were 3rd in the league defending the pass in 2006 (the Colts were 2nd and the Raiders, 1st), Indy was dead last against the run.
Even though Indy will have safety Bob Sanders in, the defense was significantly retooled in the off-season, with key players lost to free agency, outright release, or, as in the case of Anthony McFarland, out for the season with injury. The new defense will be up against the league's top-rated offense in 2006, which averaged 391.5 yards per game.
Drew Brees, Reggie Bush, and a cadre of receivers should have a field day against a defense that is still learning how to play together. Chalk up an early upset win for the Saints.
Prediction: Saints 31 Colts 27
Sunday, Sep. 9
Atlanta at Minnesota (-3, 36) 1:00 pm - It's only the first week of the season, so hopes are high in both camps, though neither team is expected to reach the playoffs. Minnesota may have more upside with one of the league's best run defenses and a backfield which will feature playmakers Tarvaris Jackson and rookie running back Adrian Peterson. The Falcons and Vikings ranked 25th and 26th respectively on offense in 2006, and one would have to conclude that Atlanta's number will fall off without Michael Vick. Home field is another reason to like the Vikes.
Prediction: Vikings 24 Falcons 10
Carolina at St. Louis (-1, 42 1/2) 1:00 pm - The Rams are really running on borrowed time. Receivers Tory Holt and Isaac Bruce are 31 and 34 years old, and Marc Bulger isn't exactly Kurt Warner from 1999, though he did pass for over 4300 yards and 24 TDs last season. These Rams would rather ram Steven Jackson at defenses repeatedly than throw long balls, but Carolina will be ready, as the Panthers ranked 6th overall on defense in 2006. While Jake Delhomme and the offense looked shaky in preseason, they are an experienced, stable group that should be able to put up a handful of scores on the inconsistent Ram defense.
Prediction: Panthers 27 Rams 17
Denver (-3, 37) at Buffalo 1:00 pm - The Bills open their season as home dogs, against the unpredictable Broncos, in somewhat of a surprise. Buffalo's defense, which wasn't very good last season, may be worse, and the Bills have retrofitted their offensive line and will be trying to get Marshawn Lynch untracked in the backfield. The steadying force for Buffalo, believe it or not, will be J.P. Losman, who's beginning his third season as the starting QB, and he's got one of them most talented and explosive receiving corps in the league, with Lee Evans, Peerless Price, Josh Reed and game-breaker Roscoe Parrish.
Denver is still seeking answers from QB Jay Cutler, and running back Travis Henry is new to the mix. Denver's secondary gave up 213 yards per game in 2006, and will be tested repeatedly should Losman get off to a good start. While this game may be close, Buffalo could turn it into a runaway. Expect plenty of fireworks.
Prediction: Bills 31 Broncos 20
Kansas City at Houston (-3, 38) 1:00 pm - While these are two of the worst teams in the AFC, Houston has more reason to be enthusiastic about 2007. QB Matt Schaub has fit neatly into the offense and running backs Ahman Green and Ron Dayne are proven commodities, though hardly game-breakers. Kansas City will have Larry Johnson in the backfield, after the star back ended his 25-day holdout. Johnson carried 3 times for 12 yards in KC's final preseason tune-up against St. Louis. He may not be very effective. The Chiefs will likely start Damon Huard at QB, though neither he nor Brodie Croyle seem to be long-term solutions. This may be one of the uglier NFL contests this week, but Houston should prevail.
Prediction: Texans 20 Chiefs 10
Miami at Washington (-3, 35) 1:00 pm - Whew! I thought that KC-Houston game might be ugly. This one may be coyote ugly. Miami probably has a slight advantage with Trent Green throwing to Chris Chambers and Marty Booker, as the Washington secondary is more physical than good in coverage. A game to bet only if you absolutely love risk.
Prediction: Dolphins 20 Redskins 17
Will the Jets be able to capitalize? Probably, but the real test will be on defense, trying to contain Laurence Maroney and Tom Brady throwing downfield. The Jets weren't exactly spectacular on defense, but they know the Patriot schemes well enough and steady doses of Thomas Jones on offense may keep the Pats offense on the sidelines. Home dogs. Ya gotta love 'em.
Prediction: Jets 24 Patriots 23
Philadelphia (-3, 43 1/2) at Green Bay 1:00 pm - Green Bay is a few years removed from the playoffs, but Philly, with a full contingent of offensive players headed by Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, is a superior team. Philly's defense, especially in the secondary, is especially good, and they will likely pick off a few errant Brett Favre tosses. The high hopes of Packer fans will be dashed early on.
Prediction: Eagles 27 Packers 14
Pittsburgh (-4 1/2, 36 1/2) at Cleveland 1:00 pm - Cleveland will be a home underdog against divisional foe Pittsburgh for maybe the last time in many years. The Browns are on the verge of breaking out of their multi-season losing record streak and can put a thumping on the enthusiastic Steelers. This will be one of the more physical games of the weekend, and probably a very low-scoring affair. No team made it through preseason without a loss, though the Browns came the closest at 3-1, their only loss a 23-20 setback to Detroit. These guys are ready to start winning.
If Charlie Frye can produce a couple of scores, the defense will do the rest. Look for Ben Roethlisberger to be running for his life against multiple blitz packages.
Prediction: Browns 17 Steelers 13
All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games
Copyright 2007, 2008, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.  |
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