NFL Pro Football 2008-09 Super Bowl XLIII Picks Offense/Defense Analysis

NFL Pro Football 2008-09 Super Bowl XLIII Offense/Defense Analysis

Jan. 22: Overview, Records, Stats
Jan. 23: Offensive Analysis
Jan. 24: Defensive Analysis
Jan. 25: Special Teams Analysis
Jan. 26: Key Players, Injuries
Jan. 27: Coaching and Intangibles
Jan. 28: The Pick, plus Props

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Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLIII Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 22-28, 2009

SUPER BOWL XLIII
(AFC) Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 47) vs. (NFC) Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, February 1, 2009, 6:00 pm ET

Schedule of posts.

Offensive Analysis

Pittsburgh: The Steelers ranked 20th in scoring during the regular season, at 21.7 ppg. Ideally, Pittsburgh likes to run the ball, especially when Willie Parker is healthy, which he has been over the final weeks of the season and through two playoff games. However, in the playoffs, the running game has taken somewhat of a back seat to the passing and pocket dexterity of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is big enough and mobile enough to avoid being sacked while keeping plays alive with his feet.

Roethlisberger's experience and play-making ability in big games has proven to be the winning element for the Steelers. He's arguably become one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in the league, with solid fundamentals and a great understanding of down and distance situations. His savvy in the backfield puts pressure on defenses because Big Ben has proven adept at beating blitzes with slants to receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, who is also the team's primary deep threat.

The Steelers will also make use of screens and short dump-offs to backs - especially Mewelde Moore (46 receptions) - and tight end Heath Miller, who is as good a receiver as he is a blocker. And speaking of blocking, the entire offensive squad, from the linemen down to the wideouts, all work together through every play. They are as workmanlike and blue collar as the city they represent. Though they may not score a ton of points, they are well-managed and expert at clock management and field position-style games.

They only scored more than 27 points four times this season, and once in the playoffs, 35-24 over San Diego in the divisional round. The Steelers are averaging 29 points per game in the playoffs, second only to Arizona, at 31.7.

Arizona: Over the course of the past two seasons, the Cardinals have established themselves as one of the most explosive offensive units in the NFL. with Kurt Warner having regained his poise in the pocket, his accurate throws to the best tandem of receivers in the league - Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin - keeps opposing secondaries on their toes.

The Cardinals don't rely exclusively on their wideouts to move themselves down the field. Slot receiver Steve Breaston was a star in collage and has continued his development into a legitimate threat. He would be a starter on most NFL teams. That trio: Breaston, Boldin and Fitzgerald each had over 1000 yards during the regular season. If they need to go four wide, they have talented Early Doucet, fresh out of LSU, to fill out the lineup.

Arizona struggled with its run game during the regular season as they averaged only 73.6 yards per game, last in the league. In the playoffs, however, Eggerin Jammes, Tim Hightower and J. J. Arrington combined for an average of 111 yards over the three wins. The Cardinals also managed to covert 46.7% of their third downs, the best of any team in the playoffs.

Larry Fitzgerald is the key man in Arizona's offense, finishing second in the league to Houston's Andre Johnson with 1431 yards. Because his running mate, Boldin, runs great routes and is dangerous in his own regard (1038 yards in just 12 games), defenses cannot always double Fitzgerald, and even then he's a mismatch for most secondaries all by himself. If Fitzgerald is afforded man-to-man coverage, he'll generally eat his opponent alive. And those teams that have resorted to playing zone against the Cardinals have suffered the tight seam-busting throws of Warner, who can seemingly fit a ball into any space, no matter how tight.

Warner was exceptional in 2008, finishing second in the league in passing, with 4583 yards, a 67.1 completion percentage, 30 TDs to just 14 INTs and 286.4 yards per game. He was sacked 26 times, as he is not the most mobile of quarterbacks, though he's nimble enough to move around in the pocket and is seldom rattled or confused by defensive looks.

The Cardinals offense is a well-oiled machine, playing at the top of their game as they enter the Super Bowl.

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Defensive Analysis

Pittsburgh: Defense has been the key to Steeler success throughout 2008 and it won't change in the Super Bowl. Their ability to limit opponent's touches, give the ball back to the offense and use the clock to their advantage are the goals of this unit.

All of Pittsburgh's defensive success starts with their line play. Through the regular season, the Steelers recorded 51 sacks, which put them 2nd in the league behind Dallas (59). Since their base set is a 3-4, Pittsburgh's sacks have been generated on the edges, by their outside linebackers, LaMarr Woodley (11.5) and the incomparable James Harrison (16).

The Steelers also are nearly impossible to run against. Casey Hampton, at 6'1" and 325 lbs., is the anchor of Pittsburgh's line and an immovable force in the middle. He is also the main reason why so many teams have failed on 3rd or 4th and short situations.

While the heart of the Pittsburgh defense is focused on the front, the backside, in the form of safety Troy Polamalu, who is a ball hawk (7 picks). pure tackler and probably the best pure athlete in this unit. Polamalu makes up for whatever small deficiencies exist on the corners, who are adequate, though not necessarily spectacular one-on-one defenders. Ike Taylor is probably the best of the bunch, who, along with Deshea Townsend, will see most of the action.

Considering the offense the Cardinals are likely to put on the field, don't be surprised to see Pittsburgh employ variations of the nickel and dime defenses, which puts into play safties Tyrone Carter and Anthony Smith. At free safety, Ryan Clark has quietly put together a solid season, 4th on the team in tackles, with 88.

Arizona: The defense was not one of the Cardinals' strong points in 2008. They were near the bottom in one important category in the regular season, finishing 28th in scoring defense (26.6 ppg), though their ranking for yards allowed - 19th - wasn't an embarrassment.

On the turnover scale, the Cardinals were better than Pittsburgh, surprisingly recording 33 (13 INTs and 20 FF) to the Steelers' 32 (20 and 12), but their overall defense simply didn't make the cut in a number of games, especially the 56-34 loss to the Jets, the 48-20 beating by the Eagles and the 47-7 pounding at New England. This is a unit that gives up big plays, but otherwise is relatively sound, and, they've stepped it up during the playoffs.

The two areas which produced the most dramatic improvements in the playoffs were scoring defense (20.7 vs. 26.6) and rushing defense (77.3 vs. 110.3). The Cardinals also made an impact with turnovers, picking off 8 passes and forcing three fumbles in 3 playoff games. They also recorded 7 sacks versus just 31 during 16 regular season games.

The Cardinals play a base 4-3 defense, with the center of it all focused on linebacker Karlos Dansby, who led the team with 119 tackles, while contributing 4 sacks and a pair of interceptions. He is the hitter and enforcer of the Arizona defense and the scheme is to keep running plays forced to the inside and passing plays in front of the secondary.

The cornerbacks, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Roderick Hood are better than average, especially Rodgers-Cromartie, a rookie with exceptional speed and ball skills. Safties Antrel Rolle and Adrian Wilson are underappreciated, having accounted for 164 tackles between them. While the numbers seem stacked against the Arizona secondary, it has to be understood that the Cardinals were often in shoot-out style contests as their offense put up loads of points.

Overall, the Arizona defensive unit has improved over the course of the season and now play well together. Their one detriment is that they don't exert enough pressure on quarterbacks with their front four, though Bertrand Berry and Chike Okeafor are able to force the issue from their defensive end outposts.

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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