NCAA College Football 2008 Week 4 Bowl Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2008 College Football Week 4 Bowl Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 2-6, 2009

All times Eastern

Thursday January 1, 2009

11:00 am Outback Bowl: South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (-4, 43) - If you're looking for a defensive struggle, welcome to the Outback, where the Hawkeyes and Gamecocks should endure one of the lowest-scoring games of the bowl season. Iowa ranked 8th nationally in scoring defense, allowing just 13.3 ppg. The Hawkeyes were the only team to beat Penn St. this season, despite their overall 8-4 record. Their losses were to relatively solid teams - Pitt, Northwestern, Michigan St. and Illinois - by a combined total of 12 points. They finished strong, winning 5 of their last 6, including a season-ending 55-0 walloping of Minnesota - on the road.

South Carolina is one of the more offensively-challenged teams playing on January 1, scoring at a snail's pace of just 21.7 ppg. By contrast, the Hawkeyes look like a powerhouse, clicking at 30.3. The Gamecocks played a tough schedule, with losses to Vanderbilt, Georgia, LSU, Florida and Clemson, though those last two were blowouts - 56-6 and 31-14 - both on the road. The Gamecocks stop opponents at 20.3 ppg, but they are double stats underdogs here and have the look of a loser.

Prediction: Hawkeyes 21 Gamecocks 10

1:00 pm Gator Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Clemson Tigers (-2 1/2, 56) - One of the more intriguing New Year's Day bowls here. Clemson was supposed to compete for the ACC and possibly the national title, but by mid-October, the team was in disarray at 3-4. Managing a 4-1 record down the stretch, the Tigers snuck into this bowl slot at 7-5, but they are a far cry from a complete team, finishing 4-4 in the ACC Atlantic division and losses to every ranked team they played. The defense is their strong suit, as the offense often goes through long stretches of ineptitude.

The Cornhuskers are making their way back to prominence, but it's a long road. They also lost all three of their games vs. ranked opponents - Missouri, Texas Tech and Oklahoma - though they played the Red Raiders nearly to a draw, losing on the road, 37-31, in OT. Nebraska finished on a high note, winning their last three, scoring 45, 56 and 40 points in conference wins. Nebraska holds a huge edge on offense; similarly, Clemson is clearly superior at defense. Tough call, but the Tigers seemed a little short in the heart dept. all season and that may be their downfall here, apathy.

Prediction: Cornhuskers 27 Tigers 24

1:00 pm Capital One Bowl: Georgia Bulldogs (-7 1/2, 54) vs. Michigan State Spartans - Despite finishing a disappointing 9-3 with a defense allowing 25.3 ppg, the Bulldogs are favored over one of the better Big 10 teams still playing. The Spartans also finished 9-3, with losses to Cal, Ohio St. and Penn St., are actually a tad better than the Bulldogs on defense, and can run and throw with almost any team in the nation.

Georgia surely got more press during the season, with stars on offense in QB Matthew Stafford and RB Knowshon Moreno, but the Spartans feature Javon Ringer on the ground and the capable, but unspectacular Brian Hoyer at QB. If the Spartans don't turn the ball over, they can win this game, and Ringer is not one to cough up the pigskin, so the chances that Michigan state can keep this close and win with a late score are very good.

Prediction: Spartans 30 Bulldogs 27

Friday January 2, 2009

2:00 pm Cotton Bowl: Mississippi Rebels vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-4 1/2, 70) - Here's a game you won't want to miss. The Red Raiders have one of the more explosive offenses in the nation, scoring at a rate of 44.6 ppg, though they allow 26.3 per outing. They finished 11-1, losing only to Oklahoma, but still did not get a BCS bowl bid. This is the next best thing, however, being played for the final time at Cotton Bowl Stadium in Dallas. QB Graham Harrell and wideout michael Crabtree should provide plenty of highlight reel stuff.

The Rebels are probably the best 8-4 team in the nation, and the only one to have beaten the Florida Gators. Their losses were to Vanderbilt (23-17), at Wake Forest (30-28), at South Carolina (31-24) and at Alabama (24-20), so they were within striking distance in all of those. The Rebels finished up in strong fashion, winning their last five, including a 59-0 shutout of Louisiana-Monroe and a 45-0 romp over Miss. St. to close out the season. The defense shut down everything in sight over the final four games, allowing just 20 points.

This sets up for a fun time. Texas tech will use multiple formations and the spread offense to get downfield quickly. Mississippi uses a more traditional approach, though quarterback Jevan Snead has come into his own in the late stages of the season.

Prediction: Rebels 45 Red Raiders 34

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5:00 pm Liberty Bowl: Kentucky Wildcats vs. East Carolina Pirates (-3, 41 1/2) - Fortunately, the Rose Bowl will be televised at the same time as this stinker. The Pirates claim to fame was beating Virginia Tech in the season opener and West Virginia the following week. Since then, they went 7-4, (9-4 overall) and beat Tulsa in the Conference USA championship, 27-24. The Pirates rely on a stingy defense, which allows only 20.8 ppg, which isn't all that grand, considering they only score 23.8 per outing. They won 5 games by 4 points or less, so it would behoove backers to note that they aren't going to rally strongly if they get behind.

The Wildcats got off to a 4-0 start and then went downhill, beginning with a 17-14 loss at Alabama, going 2-6 down the stretch. Maybe it was the SEC opposition, but they just didn't stop anyone, especially in their 63-5 loss to Florida. They may be excused for being a year or more away from re-emerging to the national scene, and life is surely tough in the SEC, but Kentucky seems at least capable enough to keep the Pirates honest and win a tight one.

Prediction: Wildcats 20 Pirates 18

Saturday January 3, 2009

12:00 pm International Bowl: Buffalo Bulls vs. Connecticut Huskies (-5, 52) - Plenty of good things came out of Buffalo this season, and coach Turner Gill was responsible for much of it. The Bulls went 8-5, ending the season with a stunning, 45-24 wipeout of undefeated Ball State in the Mid-American conference championship. These guys play aggressive, hard football, much like their Husky counterparts. UConn is a pretty good program, but they took a step backwards this season, finishing 7-5, but only 3-4 in the conference. Worse, they were pounded by North Carolina, West Virginia and Pitt, 38-12, 35-13 and 34-10, respectively. Other than their stunning 40-16 rout of Cincinnati, they were just barely average, and that's not going to be good enough to beat a highly motivated Buffalo squad, playing just over the border and up the road in Toronto.

Prediction: Bulls 33 Huskies 26

Tuesday January 6, 2009

8:00 pm GMAC Bowl: Ball State Cardinals (-2, 77) vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane - Call this one the Redemption Bowl. Both the Cardinals and Golden Hurricane lost their respective conference championships and are seeking to make amends. This is a tough call because both teams play in minor conferences from different parts of the country. Tulsa scored over 44 points 8 different times this season, compiling a 10-3 record, but they seemed to hit a wall late in the year, losing 3 of their final 5 games.

Ball State was tripped up by Buffalo in the Mid-American championship, but finished 12-1. Other than that loss, their closest win was a 7-point victory at Central Michigan, so it seems odd to see them favored by only two points. The Cardinals may rip the Hurricane if the defense gets some early stops.

Prediction: Cardinals 38 Golden Hurricane 31

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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