NCAA College Football 2008 BCS Bowl Games Picks

NCAA College Football 2008 BCS Bowl Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2008 College Football BCS Bowl Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 1-5, 2009

All times Eastern

BCS Bowl Games

Thursday, January 1, 2009

5:00 pm Rose Bowl: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. USC Trojans (-9, 45) - At last we get a matchup with some teeth, pitting the respective victors of the PAC-10 and Big 10 in the Grandaddy of them all, the Rose Bowl. Both teams finished with impressive 11-1 victories, and a case can be made that these two could actually be playing for the national title. USC's lone loss to Oregon State preceded a nine-game win streak in which the Trojans shut out three opponents and held two others to 3 points (Cal and Notre Dame). USC led the nation in scoring defense at an incredible 7.8 ppg, though Penn State wasn't far behind at #4, allowing just 12.4.

Offensively, the teams match up well, with the Nittany Lions at 40.2 points and 452.2 yards per outing, while USC checks in with 37.5 and 453.1. Both are extremely well balanced, with passing yards just slightly higher than total rushing gains. A couple of differences - both advantages to Penn St. - emerge in 3rd down stats and penalties. Penn St. converted 52% of 3rd down opportunities, while USC converted 45%. The disciplined Penn Staters also were one of the least penalized teams in the country, having only 40 calls go against them this season. My contrast, USC was flagged 97 times, and that's a huge difference.

So, why are the Trojans favored by 9 points when the worst Penn State has done all season was a 1-point loss at Iowa? Good question. Call it West coast bias, proximity to Las Vegas, or the best sucker bet of the New Year, but Penn State is probably going to win this game outright because while USC is excellent on defense, they do free-lance and gamble, which will create big-play opportunity for Penn State. Also, the USC running backs rotate in and out, but none of them will be very successful against Linebacker U. That puts the onus on Mark Sanchez, who is not the most nimble of QBs and averaged nearly an interception per game. He's not a high-quality pro prospect like many of the other top-notch signal-callers this year, and his inaccuracy will prove fatal to the Trojans.

The points are simply too juicy to pass up because Penn State is as good, if not better than their West coast rivals. Look for PSU QB Daryll Clark to have a huge game running the USC defense ragged.

Prediction: Nittany Lions 27 Trojans 21

8:00 pm Orange Bowl Cincinnati Bearcats (-2 1/2. 42) vs. Virginia Tech Hokies - This is another exceptional pairing, as both teams survived in volatile conference environments, the Big East and the ACC. The Hokies, in particular, managed to produce a BCS-eligible team via an offense which only averaged 22.2 points per outing, and allowed 17.5. Uncharacteristically, their special teams were less than special, but in a year in which the ACC was loaded with unbalanced teams, the Hokies snuck in to the championship game despite a 5-3 record in the conference and losses to Boston College, Florida St. and Miami, all on the road. They didn't lose a game at home, including the ACC title game 30-12 win over BC.

The Bearcats, who finished 11-2 with a 6-1 conference record, embody the meaning of "team" as they suffered injuries to all of their starting QBs at various times of the season. The Hokies also went on the QB carousel, though they ended up with freshman Tyrod Taylor over senior Sean Glennon for most of the season. No matter who starts for either team (it should be Taylor for the Hokies and Tony Pike for the Bearcats), the edge goes to Cincy. Add to the mix special teams which are actually better than VaTech's, and the advantage gets even bigger.

Cincinnati should have little trouble stopping the Hokies, who may become one-or-none-dimensional, while their offense can generate 1st downs and scores via the run or the pass. Wideout Marshwan Gilyard is the biggest threat on the field and will likely be a large part of the difference.

Prediction: Bearcats 26 Hokies 13

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Friday, January 2, 2009

8:00 pm Sugar Bowl: Utah Utes vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (-10, 45 1/2) - Are the 12-0 Utes - now the only team in the country without a loss - the best team in the country? We may never know, thanks to those wacky losers who created and manipulate the BCS, but they will get a severe test against one of the best defenses in the nation. Alabama lost just once this season, 31-20, to Florida in the SEC Championship, and holding the Gators to just 31 points is a good trick (they'll probably score 50 against Oklahoma), so the Crimson Tide defenders deserve a tip of the cap. They are strong up front, fast and talented in the secondary and very disciplined all around.

Utah, which averaged 37.4 ppg, will find it difficult to maintain any continuity when they have the ball. When they are defending, they'll have to deal with an offense that loves to just shove the ball down opponents' throats, grind the clock and win football games. Alabama averaged 31.2 ppg themselves and did so by rushing for 300 more yards rushing than passing. Glen Coffee racked up 1347 yards in the tough trenches of the SEC, while speedier Mark Ingram averaged 5.2 yards per carry, mostly on the edges. If that's not enough, the Utes will have their hands full with world-class Julio Jones, who took in 51 of John Parker Wilson's passes for 847 yards.

The Utes will have to throw more often than they like against the Crimson Tide, because running against the Alabama front seven has proven futile all season. Other than Florida and Georgia, no team has scored more than 21 points against Alabama, so it will be tough for the Utes to produce any kind of numbers over that. It's more likely that the Crimson Tide will be at the top of their defensive might, and limit the Utes to less than three good scoring opportunities. That means the Alabama offense will be on the field for most of the game and will pull away late.

Prediction: Crimson Tide 34 Utes 14

Monday January 5, 2009

8:00 pm Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Texas Longhorns (-8 1/2, 53) - Thankfully, the Buckeyes lost twice this season (at USC and home to Penn St.) and didn't get any consideration for the national title game, which they've blown each of the last two seasons. Not that the Buckeyes aren't a quality team, they are just not of similar caliber of most of the championship contenders. The only reason they are playing in this game is because the Big 12 couldn't send 3 teams to BCS games. Otherwise, Texas Tech would surely be in here.

Another casualty of the BCS is the appearance of Texas here. The Longhorns should, by all rights, be playing Florida or Penn State for the national championship, having already beaten Oklahoma on a neutral site and registering just one close loss on the road at Texas Tech.

To say this is a mismatch would be putting it mildly. The Buckeyes will probably be starting freshman Terrelle Pryor at QB, which stands in start contrast to junior Colt McCoy, who only completed 77.6% of his passes this season, throwing for 32 touchdowns while being picked just 7 times. And forget about Bonzie Wells being a factor here. Once the Longhorns establish a 2-TD lead (second quarter), Ohio State may abandon the run and a Todd Boeckman appearance may be warranted. In any case, the Longhorns will own the second half and make their case for being the real national champs.

Prediction: Longhorns 34 Buckeyes 16

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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