NFL Pro Football 2008-2009 Conference Picks

NFL Pro Football 2008-09 Conference Picks

Untitled

Sports handicapping:
Get NFL picks from Top Ten Cappers, the best football picks on the web.
toptencappers.com

Beat the NFL odds and college football lines with expert NFL picks and college football picks.

Looking for great football picks?
Get free NFL picks and college football picks from Wunderdog Sports Picks.
www.freeunderdog.com

Fearless Rick's 2008 NFL Week Conference Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 18, 2009

All times Eastern

3:00 p.m. Philadelphia Eagles (-4, 47) at Arizona Cardinals - Of the two games, this one is probably the more difficult to pick, despite Philadelphia's 48-20 win back on Thanksgiving night. Of course, that game was played in Philadelphia, and marked the 5th consecutive East Coast loss for the Cardinals. Arizona ended 0-6 on treks to the East, culminating with a 47-7 thrashing in the cold of New England.

Now, that game vs. the Patriots was essentially meaningless for the Cardinals and they could be excused for not playing very hard. They had already wrapped up the NFC West and could do nothing to improve their position in the playoff seedings.

But last week in Carolina, all of that East coast failure talk went down the tubes as the Cardinals amped up and crushed the Carolina Panthers (in Carolina), 33-13, thus eliminating the #2 NFC seed. That outcome was somewhat predictable, as, of all the East coast teams to which Arizona had suffered defeat, their closest game was against the Panthers. And, Arizona did what it had to do to win: play better defense and keep the turnovers down. The defense allowed just 269 yards and picked off Jake Delhomme five times. Kurt Warner tossed two TD passes and was picked off just once. The Cardinals also led the Panthers in rushing yards, 145-75.

All said, their performance was outstanding, and, to some degree, expected. They rose to the occasion, as all good playoff teams must. Despite the idea that Delhomme threw repeatedly into double coverage, the Arizona defense should be given some credit for their excellent preparation, especially limiting the Panthers' main threats, Steve Smith, to just 2 catches and 43 yards, and D'Angelo Williams, to 63 yards on 12 carries.

No team is hungrier for playoff success than the Cardinals, who are in their first NFC championship since their move to Arizona.

For the Eagles, the game plan is simple: stuff the run, keep a lid on Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston, and move the ball via short passes by Donovan McNabb to wideouts and backs and dump-offs to Brian Westbrook.

The offensive side of that formula worked well in defeating the NY Giants last week, though Westbrook gained only 36 yards on 18 carries. Those numbers will have to improve in order for the Eagles to maintain some semblance of balance and disallow the Cardinals to cheat on defense.

McNabb, who was 22-40 for 217 yards, a TD and 2 picks against the Giants, didn't really impress anyone with that performance, but he was effective enough when needed. The Philly defense was on their game, limiting the Giants to 3-13 on third down conversions which resulted in 6 NY punts and much frustration for Eli Manning and his teammates. Once the Eagles took a 13-11 lead into the half, the game was essentially over. High winds were wreaking havoc on Manning and the Eagles were able to stuff 7 or 8 defenders in the box and shut down the Giants' vaunted run game.

Much has been made of the Eagles' rise through the second half of the season, and, it's true, they're red hot, having won 6 of their last 7, but the offense, which is the most West Coast style of any team still alive, isn't going to scare the Cardinals secondary, whose job it will be to contain receivers after the catch.

From the Philadelphia perspective, containing the Arizona trio of receivers and handling a resurgent Eggerin James in the middle, remains the most daunting task. The Eagles are among the most talented in the league in the secondary, but Arizona's receivers are shifty, fast and Kurt Warner is one of the most accurate throwers in the game.

Therein lies much of the difference. while the Eagles have been a playoff mainstay for the past seven years, they've yet to grab the ultimate prize and much of that failure can be traced directly to coach Andy Reid and QB McNabb, both of whom seem to suffer brain lock in times of extreme pressure.

Kurt Warner suffers from no such problems and coach Ken Whisenhunt hasn't made any mistakes thus far. The Eagles will only be able to contain the Arizona offense for only so long. While the Cardinals are likely to give up at least three scores, the Cardinals are capable of putting up much more.

A few notes on that Thanksgiving Day game. Warner threw three interceptions - two on the opening two drives - and the Eagles started four drives in Arizona territory, one on the 19-yard line. The Cardinals, by contrast, started all 11 of their drives in their own territory, with the average starting position being the 25-yard line. If Warner doesn't throw the ball to the wrong guys and the Cardinals get any momentum via either field position or time of possession, Sunday's game is going the other way.

Prediction: Cardinals 31 Eagles 24

--- Story continues below ---

6:30 p.m. Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6, 34) - As I mentioned in picking the other game above, this one is an easier call, by quite a bit.

The two opponents have already played each other twice, with Pittsburgh winning 23-20 at home in week 4, and again, at Baltimore, 13-9, in week 15.

So, the Steelers have already established their domination over their runner-up Baltimore brothers in the AFC North. The Steelers, who played the toughest schedule of any team in the history of the league, finished 12-4, with the Ravens right there every step of the way, at 11-5.

To say that the two teams know each other would be putting it lightly. Playing each other twice a season in one of the most lopsided divisions (Cincy and Cleveland finished 4-11-1 and 4-12, respectively) makes this 3rd time something akin to a sleep-over, without the girly talk and pillow fights. Expect at least six injury time outs as these two go hammer and tong for 60 minutes.

Both defenses are notable, having finished the season #1 and #2 in yards allowed and #1 and #3 in points allowed, with the Steelers having the upper hand - though by slim margins - in both categories. The two teams advanced in typical fashion, with Pittsburgh winning at home over the Chargers, 35-24, though the game wasn't even that close. When Willie Parker scored from the 3-yard-line with 40 seconds left in the first half, the game was essentially over, as the Steelers took a 14-10 lead into the break and expanded it to 28-10 early in the 4th quarter. With the game in hand, the Steelers let up a little on defense and allowed the Chargers to creep closer with a pair of TDs in the 4th quarter. The truly remarkable stat was holding San Diego to just 15 yards rushing for the game. The score could easily have been worse.

Baltimore took out Tennessee, 13-10, in the best defensive game of the season. The Titans weren't the most explosive offensive team around, and neither are the Ravens, but Baltimore was the beneficiary of three Tennessee turnovers, all deep in Raven territory. Rookie QB Joe Flacco has proven unflappable in the post-season, and the Ravens' running game is pretty solid, though it won't be enough against the Steelers, as has been already proven.

Pittsburgh has a veteran squad with years of playoff experience on both sides of the ball, especially in Heinz Ward and Ben Roethlisberger on offense. Having a healthy Willie Parker in the backfield doesn't hurt, and home field, where it's expected to be cold and windy, also favors Pittsburgh.

The Ravens are listing both TE Todd Heap and WR Derrick Mason (their only reliable receiver) as questionable. The question becomes not whether Pittsburgh will win or not, but by how much? They've beaten the Ravens by 3 and by 4, so the progression says 5 is the number but with a desperate Ravens taking moe chances than they should it likely will be more than that, and maybe the Steelers win this by 10 or more.

Prediction: Steelers 27 Ravens 17

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

Untitled

Beat the NFL odds and college football lines with expert NFL picks and college football picks.

Sports Handicappers Lounge
Check out the web's best sports handicapping forum - get free service plays from Capper's Lounge.
www.capperslounge.com