NFL Pro Football 2008-09 Super Bowl XLIII Picks with Props

NFL Pro Football 2008-09 Super Bowl XLIII Picks

Jan. 22: Overview, Records, Stats
Jan. 23: Offensive Analysis
Jan. 24: Defensive Analysis
Jan. 25: Special Teams Analysis
Jan. 26: Key Players, Injuries
Jan. 27: Coaching and Intangibles
Jan. 28: The Pick, plus Props

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Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLIII Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 22-28, 2009

SUPER BOWL XLIII
(AFC) Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 47) vs. (NFC) Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, February 1, 2009, 6:00 pm ET

Entry for January 22, 2009

Since the Super Bowl is the most important prediction of the year (it's the big game, after all, the one that generates the most gaming interest in Vegas and around the world), I decided that just as the teams get two weeks to figure out their game plan, then I should have two weeks to prepare as well.

Being that many users are impatient and don't want to wait to see my pick, I've decided to do most of my analysis on this and subsequent pages, adding info as I receive and digest it.

By Wednesday, January, 28, I'll have my final pick posted. For those who can't wait, I am leaning towards the Cardinals and Over 47. Whether I remain in that frame of mind as the game approaches on February 1, remains to be seen.

Here's the schedule of how I'll be breaking down the matchup between the Steelers and Cardinals.

Overview, Records, Stats

Pittsburgh: Champions of the AFC North division, the Steelers finished the regular season with a record of 12-4, an even 6-2 at home as well as on the road. A perfect 6-0 in their division and 12-2 in the conference, meaning they were 0-2 against NFC teams (9/21, at Philadelphia, 15-6; 10/26, home NY Giants, 21-14) The AFC losses were 31-14, at Tennessee, and at home, 24-20, to Indy. All of the Steeler losses were to playoff teams. Pittsburgh played the roughest schedule in NFL history, based on previous year's records, so they are a perfect fit for the Super Bowl. Note that in all but one of these losses they scored 14 points or less and the average margin of loss was 9.25. They ended the season winning six of their last seven games, and won two straight in the playoffs, beating San Diego by 11 and Baltimore by 9.

The Pittsburgh offense averaged 311.9 yards per game, 22nd in the league, with 105.6 on the ground and 206.3 via the air. They scored 347 (21.7 per game) points (20th).

Defensively, the Steelers were overwhelmingly good. They led the NFL in total defense at 237.2 per game, with 80.3 rushing (2nd) and 156.9 passing (1st), allowing a league low of 223 (13.9 per game) points.

In the playoffs, offensive numbers were similar, 308.5 total offense, with almost the same exact balance. In their two playoff games, the Steelers converted 40% of their 3rd down opportunities and committed only 13 penalties, for 111 yards.

If anything, the Steelers improved their rushing defense in the playoffs, limiting opponents to just 44 yards per game. Allowing 200 yards passing and 244 overall isn't bad considering how one-dimensional their run defense made the opposition. Pittsburgh allowed 19 points per game, but that figure is a little misleading. They were in complete control of San Diego in the first game and controlled the pace through most of the Baltimore win.

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Arizona: The Cardinals were not the most impressive team in the league. In fact, they suffered severe letdowns in repeated trips to the East coast, resulting in 5 losses in their 9-7 overall record. Arizona wrapped up the NFC West title in week 14, so their 47-7 loss to New England has to be treated like a horse who had a bad day on an off track. In the past performances, you'd just draw a line through it and forget about it. Surely, that defeat is the furthest thing from the Cardinals' players minds. The Cardinals were 6-2 at home and only 3-5 on the road, though they were a perfect 6-0 in their division and 7-5 in the conference. Besides the New England loss, their only other defeat to an AFC team was a 56-35 loss to the Jets on 9/28.

While the regular season was nothing to shout about, even though it was the first division title for Arizona in many years, their playoff run is much more impressive. After knocking off Atlanta at home, 30-24, they made their way back to Carolina and won their first East coast game of the season in smashing style, whipping the Panthers 33-13, and picking off Carolina QB Jake Delhomme 5 times. Returning home to arizona, the Cardinals dispatched the Eagles 32-25. Like Pittsburgh in their conference-clinhing win over Baltimore, the Cardinals relinquished a lead to the Eagles only to come back in the 4th quarter for the win.

If the Steelers are all about defense, the Cardinals present an offensive challenge, amassing 365.8 yard per game during the regular season (4th), with 73.6 (32) on the ground and 292.1 (2nd overall) on Kurt Warner's arm during the regular season. They scored 427 (26.7 per game) points (3rd).

On defense, Arizona did not excel. In the regular season, the Cardinals allowed 331.5 yards per game (19th), giving up 110.3 rushing (16) and 221.3 (22) passing. They allowed a whopping 426 (26.6) points (28th).

The Cardinals stepped things up in the post-season, leading all playoff teams at 31.7 points per game. They gained an average of 362.0 points over 3 games, 111 on the ground and 251 through the air.

The biggest improvement was on scoring defense, as the Cardinals allowed just 20.3 over the trio of playoff games, though the overall yards was similar to their regular season figs, 324.3 per game, but they forced 11 turnovers (8 INTs, 3 fumbles).

Offensive Analysis

Pittsburgh: The Steelers ranked 20th in scoring during the regular season, at 21.7 ppg. Ideally, Pittsburgh likes to run the ball, especially when Willie Parker is healthy, which he has been over the final weeks of the season and through two playoff games. However, in the playoffs, the running game has taken somewhat of a back seat to the passing and pocket dexterity of QB Ben Roethlisberger, who is big enough and mobile enough to avoid being sacked while keeping plays alive with his feet.

Roethlisberger's experience and play-making ability in big games has proven to be the winning element for the Steelers. He's arguably become one of the top 3 or 4 quarterbacks in the league, with solid fundamentals and a great understanding of down and distance situations. His savvy in the backfield puts pressure on defenses because Big Ben has proven adept at beating blitzes with slants to receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, who is also the team's primary deep threat.

The Steelers will also make use of screens and short dump-offs to backs - especially Mewelde Moore (46 receptions) - and tight end Heath Miller, who is as good a receiver as he is a blocker. And speaking of blocking, the entire offensive squad, from the linemen down to the wideouts, all work together through every play. They are as workmanlike and blue collar as the city they represent. Though they may not score a ton of points, they are well-managed and expert at clock management and field position-style games.

They only scored more than 27 points four times this season, and once in the playoffs, 35-24 over San Diego in the divisional round. The Steelers are averaging 29 points per game in the playoffs, second only to Arizona, at 31.7.

Arizona: Over the course of the past two seasons, the Cardinals have established themselves as one of the most explosive offensive units in the NFL. with Kurt Warner having regained his poise in the pocket, his accurate throws to the best tandem of receivers in the league - Larry Fitgerald and Anquan Boldin - keeps opposing secondaries on their toes.

The Cardinals don't rely exclusively on their wideouts to move themselves down the field. Slot receiver Steve Breaston was a star in collage and has continued his development into a legitimate threat. He would be a starter on most NFL teams. That trio: Breaston, Boldin and Fitzgerald each had over 1000 yards during the regular season. If they need to go four wide, they have talented Early Doucet, fresh out of LSU, to fill out the lineup.

Arizona struggled with its run game during the regular season as they averaged only 73.6 yards per game, last in the league. In the playoffs, however, Eggerin Jammes, Tim Hightower and J. J. Arrington combined for an average of 111 yards over the three wins. The Cardinals also managed to covert 46.7% of their third downs, the best of any team in the playoffs.

Larry Fitzgerald is the key man in Arizona's offense, finishing second in the league to Houston's Andre Johnson with 1431 yards. Because his running mate, Boldin, runs great routes and is dangerous in his own regard (1038 yards in just 12 games), defenses cannot always double Fitzgerald, and even then he's a mismatch for most secondaries all by himself. If Fitzgerald is afforded man-to-man coverage, he'll generally eat his opponent alive. And those teams that have resorted to playing zone against the Cardinals have suffered the tight seam-busting throws of Warner, who can seemingly fit a ball into any space, no matter how tight.

Warner was exceptional in 2008, finishing second in the league in passing, with 4583 yards, a 67.1 completion percentage, 30 TDs to just 14 INTs and 286.4 yards per game. He was sacked 26 times, as he is not the most mobile of quarterbacks, though he's nimble enough to move around in the pocket and is seldom rattled or confused by defensive looks.

The Cardinals offense is a well-oiled machine, playing at the top of their game as they enter the Super Bowl.

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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