NFL Pro Football 2008 Week 11 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2008 Week 11 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 11 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 13-17

All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games.

THU, NOV 13

NY Jets at New England (-3 1/2, 42) 8:15 PM - A treat for Brett Favre fans and lovers of the AFC East. This one will determine - for the time being - the leader in the division. Both teams are 6-3. The Patriots are home for the second straight week after dumping the Bills rather convincingly, 20-10, while the Jets head up I-95 following their blistering 47-3 win over the inept Rams.

The Jets are on a serious roll, having won 5 of their last 6, the only loss a 16-13 OT loss at Oakland. Story lines abound here, especially the coaching rivalry between the Jets' Mangini and his former boss, Pats' coach bill Belichick. The Pats won the first meeting, in week 2, 19-10, but Favre is now on the same page as his receivers and will make good on fans' wishes to deliver the Jets to the playoffs. New England is pretty banged up and the offense is fairly defensible as short passes and no running game is pretty much the Patriots' game plan.

Prediction: Jets 21 Patriots 13

SUN, NOV 16

Denver at Atlanta (-6, 51 1/2) 1:00 PM - At 5-4, the Broncos are still atop the AFC West. While a loss may not cost them (San Diego is 4-5 and playing at Pittsburgh later), it would keep Atlanta (6-3) in the NFC South hunt. The Broncos have one of the worst defenses in the league, whereas Atlanta is #9 is points allowed at a solid 19.1. Better yet, the Falcons are the second-best rushing team in the league - behind the Giants - at 157 yards per game. If the Falcons defense comes to play, the offense should have little problem scoring often. This looks like a no-brainer.

Prediction: Falcons 31 Broncos 16

Oakland at Miami (-10 1/2, 38 1/2) 1:00 PM - OK, the Raiders are not very good, but their defense sometimes comes to the rescue of the very suspect offense and that may be the case here, as they travel across the country to the warmer climate of South Florida. The Dolphins have won three straight and actually are thinking about the possibilities in the AFC East, where they are 5-4 and tied for last with the Bills, but only a game behind the Jets and Patriots. Maybe they should think a little more about stopping teams from throwing against the Swiss cheese secondary, which is allowing 234 yards per game. Even the Oakland offense, dead last in the league at 12.6 ppg and 139.2 yards per outing, should find some holes.

The Raiders have scored just 35 points over the last 5 games, which isn't nearly enough in the NFL, but with a solid defensive effort and any kind of break in either the passing or return game, should be able to keep this one close until the end, with the possibility of an upset. Miami was favored by 10 against Seattle last week and just held on to win by 2 points.

Prediction: Raiders 23 Dolphins 19

Baltimore at NY Giants (-6 1/2, 41 1/2) 1:00 PM - Think the Giants aren't the best team in the NFL? Think again. New York is tied for 6th defensively, at 17.8 ppg and is second on offense, clicking for and average of 29.1 points each week. As good as the G-Men are, this one figures to be close, however, as the Ravens are a tad better on defense (16.7) and nearby offensively, scoring an average of 23.6 ppg.

At 8-1, the Giants have a comfortable 2-game lead over the Redskins in their division (the NFC East is still the best in the league with 24 wins total), but the Ravens are 6-3 and tied with the Steelers for the top spot in the AFC North. Baltimore should put up a good fight, especially if they can keep Joe Flacco away from onrushing linemen, which is the heart of the matter. The Ravens' signal-caller has been sacked 17 times, tossed 7 INTs and fumbled away 7 balls. If Baltimore can limit turnovers and sacks to 1 or 2, they have a chance to win.

Prediction: Giants 19 Ravens 16

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-4, 39) 1:00 PM - The Vikings are not so good on the road (1-3), and they face a Tampa Bay team that's perfect at home (4-0). This one has all the makings of a defensive struggle, unless Vikings' RB Adrian Peterson finds a way through the Bucs' defense for a score or two or Gus Frerotte can keep the INTs down (he nearly gave away last week's 28-27 win by throwing 3 to Green Bay defenders). Either scenario is likely, as Peterson and the Great Gus have led the Vikes to 4 wins in their last 5 games.

The 6-3 Buccaneers have been very much up and down of late and are coming off a bye after slipping past the Chiefs 30-27 on Nov. 2. They are very banged up on offense, with 5 receivers or backs listed as questionable. Since they're not a big scoring threat normally, that's an edge for the Vikings, who should be able to keep them in check most of the afternoon.

Prediction: Vikings 20 Buccaneers 14

Detroit at Carolina (-14, 40) 1:00 PM - For some odd reason, I keep picking the Lions to cover big point spreads. The oddsmakers must be laughing all the way to their various banks over my stupidity. Detroit is easily the worst team in the league, having not won a game and recently starting the fumbling, stumbling Daunte Culpepper at QB. There's a reason, Culpepper was out of football until getting the call from the Lions: he stinks, which makes him a perfect fit for this poor excuse for an NFL franchise. Carolina is second in the league in scoring defense (14.8 ppg), and while they're no offensive juggernaut, they should limit the hapless Lions to less than 150 yards total offense. Put another L in Detroit's sad column, making them 0-10.

Prediction: Panthers 28 Lions 6

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Chicago at Green Bay (-3 1/2, 43) 1:00 PM - Aaron Rodgers will start for the Paxkers while Kyle Orton is still a question mark, but listed as the probable starter for the Bears at QB. The Packers are desperate for a win after road losses at Tennessee and Minnesota have them at 4-5 and staring up at the Vikings and Bears, both at 5-4. Assuming Orton starts, he should be able to lead the Bears to at least two TDs and any number of deep penetrations into the Green Bay side of the field. 21-23 points should be enough for the Bears to win this one. Even though the defense is having an up-and-down season, they should come up with a solid effort here to stay at least tied with Minnesota on top of the NFC North. The Packers are beginning to regret giving Brett Favre the heave-ho as their former QB has the Jets in good position to make the playoffs.

Prediction: Bears 23 Packers 17

Philadelphia (-9, 42 1/2) at Cincinnati 1:00 PM - The Eagles are still smarting from the beat-down put upon them by the Giants last Sunday night and may be looking at the Bengals as a kind of bye week, and with good reason: the Bengals are 1-8 and have the second-worst offense in the league, scoring just 13.9 ppg.

But, hold on a minute. The Bengals got off the schneid on November 2, topping Jacksonville, 21-19, and has last weekend off, so they should be about as well-prepared as a team can be for this contest. While that's encouraging, consider that this game falls into the "must win" category for the 5-4 Eagles. They can hardly afford a loss here if they expect to make the playoffs. Also, their 4 losses have been by 4, 4, 6, and 5 points, but their five wins have been by wide margins (35, 9, 14, 13 and 19). Expect the Eagles to get on the board early and turn the game over to their very capable defense for another lopsided win.

Prediction: Eagles 33 Bengals 17

New Orleans (-5 1/2, 50) at Kansas City 1:00 PM - You have to hand it to the Chiefs. Despite winning just once this season, they keep trying. They do, however, continue to fall just short of victory. Over the past three weeks, they lost by 4 at the NY Jets, by 3 at home to the Bucs, and last week, by a point on the road at San Diego. Can they get over the hump this week?

Well, considering that the Saints are visiting and this qualifies as the 5 1/2 sucker line of the week, the Chiefs are look at a pretty solid opportunity. The 4-5 Saints have beaten only one team with a winning record, and that was Tampa Bay in week 1. Their defense should be arrested for gross negligence, as they are just a shade better than that of the Chiefs. The Saints also haven't won a road game this season, unless you count their 37-32 win over the Chargers in London. Of course, the Chiefs haven't won at home, but, they haven't won but once in 9 tries. This one's for the home faithful.

Prediction: Chiefs 28 Saints 24

Houston at Indianapolis (-9, 51) 1:00 PM - Finally, the Colts look like they've turned the corner and are playing championship-caliber football once again. Peyton Manning connected for 240 yards and 3 TDs and the defense limited the Steelers to 55 yards rushing and dominated the second half, allowing only a 4th quarter field goal in their 24-20 road win.

That sets the Colts up for a wild card run, as they're not likely to catch the 9-0 Titans in their division. But, at 5-4, they do have some teams just in front of them. Houston, however, is not one of them, and while the Texans have played well at times, they are not going to stay competitive against the better teams in their conference down the stretch.

The Texans' defense is allowing a touchdown more than Indy against what has to be assumed to be weaker opposition. And, while the Colts are averaging just 21 points per game on offense, their last three have been against the Titans, Patriots and Steelers, three of the top six defenses in the league. Houston blew a big lead to Indy in a week 5, 31-27 loss, so the Colts can sweep the season series here and improve their divisional record.

Prediction: Colts 34 Texans 14

All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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