NFL Pro Football 2008 Week 12 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2008 Week 12 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 12 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 20-24

All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games.

THU, NOV 20

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-10 1/2, 34 1/2) 8:15 PM - Nobody in their right mind would take the Bengals even if they were given 20 points. The Steelers have endured the most challenging schedule ever devised in the NFL, including winning a fixed game (last week's 11-10 fiasco over San Diego), so there's nothing that this team can't handle. Judging by their high level of play, the Steelers normally would appear to be a near-certain lock for a playoff spot this season. With a one-game lead over the Ravens, however, they not only have to play at Baltimore, but also must endure games at New England and Tennessee, plus host the Cowboys over the following four weeks before inviting Cleveland in for the season finale.

This is a game the Steelers cannot afford to lose, and they won't. Pittsburgh allows the least amount of yardage in the NFL, and that was accomplished against some of the best teams in the league. The Bengals have the least-productive offense in the league. The math is simple and obvious.

Prediction: Steelers 31 Bengals 9

SUN, NOV 23

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-2 1/2, 40 1/2) 1:00 PM - While both of these teams are thinking playoffs, the fact of the matter is that one, or both, will be home for the holidays and watching on TV. At 4-6, Jacksonville is especially in need of a home win. Following an Oct. 12 win at Denver and a bye week, the Jaguars lost 3 of their next four, beating only Detroit during that span. With an offense that sputters on third down (39.4%) and a defense that can't find a way to get off the field, Jacksonville needs to step up in a big way because Minnesota will run the ball down their throats if they allow solid gains on first and second downs.

The Vikings, however, are converting only 35% of their third down opportunities, so there is some hope that Jacksonville can get closer to .500. Home field will help, but both offenses are somewhat on the inept side, so don't expect much scoring here.

Prediction: Jaguars 19 Vikings 14

Philadelphia at Baltimore (-1, 39 1/2) 1:00 PM - The Eagles shot themselves squarely in the foot by ending last week's game at Cincy in a 13-13 tie, dropping them to last place in the NFC East and putting the entire season in peril. The Ravens continue to play well, despite being overwhelmed by the Giants last week, and the geographical proximity of these two clubs makes this game a natural rivalry.

Both teams usually play solid defense, but the sense of urgency for the Eagles is so great that a win is paramount. How well Philly can run the ball against Baltimore is key, as the Ravens are the #2 run-stopping team in the league. Since the Eagles aren't exactly known for pounding the ball, this one leans in favor of the Ravens who should get better production from Ray Rice than they have from Willis McGahee, who saw most of the second half against the Giants from the bench.

Prediction: Ravens 24 Eagles 13

New England at Miami (-2 1/2, 42) 1:00 PM - Is this payback time for the Patriots? Miami unveiled their "wildcat" offense in week 3, much to the surprise of the unsuspecting Pats and left the Boston area with a 38-13 win. Having now had two months to plot his revenge, coach Belichick should be prepared for whatever wrinkles the Dolphins have in mind.

Statistically, the two teams are nearly mirror images of each other, so this should be a close, well-managed contest throughout, a style which should favor the Patriots. QB Matt Cassell has shown great improvement over the course of the season and won't make costly mistakes, but they are a banged up bunch and will sorely miss LB Adalius Thomas, who is out with an arm injury. Given that both teams are 6-4 and chasing the Jets in the division, there's a distinct possibility that Miami will hold up at home and send the Patriots back to New England still searching for answers.

Prediction: Dolphins 26 Patriots 21

Chicago (-9, 43) at St. Louis 1:00 PM - The Bears are almost certainly a better team than the one that limped through last week's 37-3 shellacking at Green Bay. As for the Rams, however, they really are as bad, if not worse, than their 2-8 record indicates. Chicago is only 2-3 on the road, but the good news for the Monsters of the Midway is that the Rams are 1-3 at home. Bears' QB Kyle Orton was probably not fully recovered from a high ankle sprain last week, so the extra time should have him back to peak form. All indications are for the Bears to regain some of their moxie, get the win and prepare for the home stretch.

Prediction: Bears 31 Rams 13

Houston at Cleveland (-3, 49 1/2) 1:00 PM - Holding on for a crucial 29-27 win at Buffalo Monday night, the Browns may be able to salvage what's left of the 2008 campaign, starting with a win against the Texans. However, if that Monday nighter wasn't enough excitement, Houston will provide plenty of fireworks. The Texans have one of the more efficient offenses in the league, scoring 23.6 ppg, compared to the Browns' 20.1. Cleveland's stats are getting better, though, every time Brad Quinn gets behind center, so the Browns are now capable of running up the score with the best of the league.

Houston's defense is a cause for concern, allowing 28.7 ppg, 30th in the NFL, and a primary reason the Texans are just 3-7. But, let's face the facts. The Browns are only 4-6, probably aren't going to reach the playoffs and they have a young, inexperienced quarterback. This one has all the elements necessary for a shoot-out, which Houston can win.

Prediction: Texans 34 Browns 31

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San Francisco at Dallas (-10, 47) 1:00 PM - Tony Romo returned in good form for the Cowboys, but perhaps more impressive was the Dallas defense which held the Redskins to 228 total yards and just 10 points in last Sunday's 14-10 win. If the defense can step up like that again, this one looks like a severe rout in the making. Sure, the 49ers rang up 35 points against the Rams last week, but that was at home and against one of the league's weakest defenses. San Fran was also the beneficiary of four St. Louis turnovers. That's not going to happen in Big D. Chalk up another win for the Cowboys, who are on a mission for a wild card spot.

Prediction: Cowboys 30 49ers 13

Tampa Bay (-9, 41) at Detroit 1:00 PM - The 0-10 Lions are still trying to figure out how to get a win in this league. Sadly, they've come close a number of times and actually have lost by 9 points or less five times in their last six outings. The problem with that is they still lost.

There are lots of numbers that point to some potential for improvement in Detroit, but the most glaring numbers are the losing margins at home for the Lions. In four home games they have lost by 23, 27, 8 and 24 points. Maybe the pressure of playing in front of their "fans" is too much to overcome, or maybe the team just doesn't like playing indoors. Whatever it is, the 7-3 Bucs are going to become the 8-3 Bucs when the final gun sounds. Barring turnovers, this should be a double-digit affair.

Prediction: Buccaneers 27 Lions 10

Buffalo (-3, 43 1/2) at Kansas City 1:00 PM - The Bills are really in a bad way. After starting out red hot with four straight wins, they've cooled off just like their local climate, losing five of their last six and four straight, culminating in Monday night's 29-27 gut-spilling loss to Cleveland. The problems are mostly with the offense, which continues to turn the ball over. Buffalo coughed it up four times against the Browns, including three Trent Edwards picks. Additionally, leading receiver Lee Evans, who often goes missing for long stretches in games, pulled a complete vanishing act Monday night, with no catches for the first time in his NFL career.

The Chiefs have lost six in a row themselves, but arguably are playing better than Buffalo. In their last four games, they've been close, losing by 4 to the Jets, 3 to Tampa, 1 at San Diego and by 10 last week against the Chiefs. They are on the cusp of success and the Bills are just the kind of dispirited squad they can beat.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 Bills 22

NY Jets at Tennessee (-5, 40 1/2) 1:00 PM - This game will offer a glimpse of what to expect in January, as both the Jets and Titans are right now poised to make the playoffs. Brett Favre has performed admirably in his encore in New York and has the Jets atop the AFC East at 7-3. Of course, the Titans are other-worldly, with that gaudy 10-0 record and the best defense seen in this league in some years.

The Jets have two road losses, and got a win at New England last week, but having to travel for the second straight week is the kiss of death, especially when the destination is Nashville. The Titans are almost certain to either force Favre to fumble or throw interceptions, or both. They will be in his face and on his wideouts from the opening kickoff to the final gun. Tennessee plays a superior ball control and field position game and though the Jets will hang in, this one will end the way the first ten have, with Tennessee victorious. All hail Jeff Fisher, the NFL Coach of the Year!

Prediction: Titans 30 Jets 20

All times Eastern - Click here for late Sunday and Monday night games

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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