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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Bowl Week 2 Picks
Rick Gagliano | December 26-30
All times Eastern
Little Caesars Bowl, Dec. 26, Detroit, Mich., ESPN, 1 p.m., Ohio Bobcats (-3, 49 1/2) vs. Marshall Thundering Herd - Enjoy the post-Christmas leftovers and hangovers with a trio of bowl games, beginning with this match-up of also-rans from the Mid-American conference and Conference USA.
The entrant from the Mid-American, Ohio, looks to have quite the advantage, though the Vegas guys don't seem to agree. The Bobcats went 9-4 (7-1, conference), with losses to UConn, Tennessee, Kent State and Central Michigan, that last one for the conference championship, holding the powerhouse Chippewas to just 20 points in a 20-10 defeat. Otherwise, they blew through the opposition with a balanced run-pass attack and a defense capable of stepping up, especially in the red zone. Marshall was 6-6, finishing in the middle of the conference. Losers of three of their last four, the Thundering Herd were last seen being stampeded at UTAP, 52-21.
North Carolina had its ups and downs during the season, and were favored by many pre-season to win the conference title. After a rough 4-3 start, they won four straight, but dropped their season-ender to those same NC State Wildcats, 28-27. Both teams have defenses which can run and hit, but Pitt has an edge in the running game with the elusive Dion Lewis, who rushed for 1640 yards on 297 carries. If the Tar Heels can't contain him - and nobody has yet - that opens up the passing game for underrated Bill Stull, who could have a future at the next level. Pitt's defense should be able to force a turnover or two from QB TJ Yates, who threw 14 picks and was sacked 21 times. The Heels will have plenty of support from a partisan fan base, but lack of protection will be their undoing.
When BC got beat, it was usually by big numbers. In their losses to North Carolina, Virginia Tech and Clemson, their average losing margin was 23 points. They did, however, show a propensity to get up for big games, their biggest, a 20-16 loss at Notre Dame, in which they held the Irish offense down for most of the 4 quarters.
This one comes down to preparation and desire, and there's a very good chance that the Trojans will be flat while the Eagles, inspired. The line has dropped 1 1/2 points on this game since the open, a good sign that BC will upset. Defense is BC's secret weapon.
Kentucky will try to hold up the pride of the SEC, which is usually the case, but Clemson has something special going on, and it's unlikely the Wildcats will be able to contain the Tiger offense or keep up in the scoring department. They will get QB Mike Hartline back for this game. The QB has been out since October with an injured knee, though his mobility is questionable.
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Georgia probably received favoritism from the line-makers because they represent the SEC, even though the Aggies look like the superior team. Get ready for an upset that will fuel the SEC-Big 12 rivalry into the national championship game.
UCLA had an undistinguished season, finishing 6-6, with five straight conference losses in the middle and a season-ending 28-7 thumping at the hands of their main rival, USC, who finished mid-pack themselves. The Bruins have two distinct problems: they don't score enough and they allow too many points, which usually leads to defeats. While the Bruins go to bowl games just about every year, they don't usually impress, and the Owls will be well-prepared and highly charged. The tip-off is the 4 1/2 - 5 1/2 line. Even Vegas can't figure out this one. Temple's worth a shot, if only from the small conference vs. big angle. The Owls certainly have motivation in their corner.
Wisconsin enters the fray with a similar 9-3 record and just one blowout loss, a 31-13 beating at Ohio State that they simply threw away. They dominated the Buckeyes in the stats department, but turned the ball over twice on interceptions returned for TDs and also gave up another on a kickoff return. Other than that, this team is as capable as any in the nation, losing only to Iowa, 20-10 and Northwestern, 33-31. They don't exactly stop everyone, but nobody can hold down their offense, espeically their bruising back, John Clay.
Wisconsin has heft, Maimi has speed. last year the Badgers were outrun by Florida State, 42-13 in this same bowl. The Badgers are a better team this year and should have grown from that experience. They can control both sides of the line and that usually spells victory.
What, you think I know everything? At least I know that sometimes being lucky is just as good as being smart. This, one of 34 bowl games, qualifies on the luck quotient.
The Cornhuskers came within one second of beating Texas and sending the BCS into high-anxiety mode in their 13-12 loss in the Big 12 championship. The Cornhuskers are as good a defensive team as you'll find in the nation, but they lack consistency on offense and really don't have any big play potential. Their big plays come from the defense, especially from tackle Ndamukong Suh, a Heisman finalist. Nebraska was only blown out once, a 31-10 loss to Texas Tech. Besides that and the Texas beat, their other two losses were at Virginia Tech, 16-15, and Iowa State, 9-7, when they committed 8 turnovers.
Arizona head coach Mike Stoops and Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini will face each other here. The two grew up together in Youngstown, Ohio and are steeped in football tradition, but Pelini has Suh and the #2 scoring defense in the country, behind Alabama, at 11.2 ppg. They may hold Arizona to fewer than that. The additional time may help the Nebraska offense get some semblance of an attack formulated. There's nothing Stoops and his defense can do about Suh except pray he misses the plane.
All times Eastern
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