NCAA College Football 2009-10 Bowl Week 3 Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Bowl Week 3 Picks

Rick Gagliano | December 31, 2009 - January 1, 2010

All times Eastern

Armed Forces Bowl, Dec. 31, Fort Worth, Tex., ESPN, Noon, Air Force Falcons vs. Houston Cougars (-4 1/2, 62) - The Falcons, out of the Mountain West, should show up well here. Mountain West teams have been tough this bowl season, and the 7-5 Falcons were in every game until the end, including a 3-point loss to conference powerhouse, TCU. While the Cougars have a ton of offense and some quality wins (Oklahoma State, Texas Tech), they can be stopped and they have little in the way of defense. Case Keenum will get his points (their lowest point total of the entire season was 29), but if any team is going to be prepared it's got to be one of the military units, and Air Force was the best of that bunch this season.

Houston scored 43.9 ppg this season, second in the nation to Boise State. Air Force was the best in the nation defending against the pass (148.7 yards per game). Look for the Falcons to get a few picks and muster just enough offense to win.

PREDICTION: Falcons 37 Cougars 34

Sun Bowl, Dec. 31, El Paso, Tex., CBS, 2:00 p.m., Stanford Cardinal vs. Oklahoma Sooners (-9 1/2, 56) - Can the Sooners' tough defense stop Toby Gerhart, and what will their offense produce? One other factor is how much playing time Stanford QB Andrew Luck will see, if any. He's recovering from surgery on his throwing hand index finger, and is practicing, but may be limited.

The Sooners were supposed to be a powerhouse out of the Big 12 this season, but when Sam Bradford got injured against BYU, the Sooners turned into one of the season's biggest flops, finishing the regular season at 7-5.

What could confound handicappers even more in this game is how prepared each unit might be, and how motivated to play in a sub-BCS bowl. For the Sooners, it's a downer, but for Standford, the warm Texas climate and Midwest crowd might be a good tonic. The line seems overly generous, so the points may come in handy.

PREDICTION: Sooners 30 Cardinal 26

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Texas Bowl, Dec. 31, Houston, ESPN, 3:30 p.m., Missouri Tigers (-6 1/2, 62 1/2) vs. Navy Midshipmen - It's surprising the Middies aren't favored here, as they put together a very nice campaign in 2009. Their 9-4 record includes wins over Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Air Force, and their losses - Ohio State, Pitt, Temple and Hawaii - were all close except for a 27-14 loss at Pitt. The others were by 3, 4 and 7 points, respectively. Navy will run their spread option, which requires a quick, sideline-to-slineline, disciplined unit to defend, and Missouri doesn't quite have that, though they are improved over recent seasons. The Middies were the third-most-proficient run offense this season.

High-powered offenses give the Tigers trouble, as witnessed in their 33-17 loss to Oklahoma State and 41-7 thumping by Texas. QB Blaine Gabbert is an up-and-coming star (23 TDs, 7 INTs), but he will be facing a pretty good defense. Navy allowed just 19.9 ppg, 20th in the nation.

PREDICTION: Midshipmen 30 Tigers 24

Insight Bowl, Dec. 31, Tempe, Ariz., NFL Net., 6 p.m., Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2 1/2, 48) vs. Iowa State Cyclones - If you happen to miss this game, don't worry, it may be one of the least-watched and lowest-scoring games of the bowl season. The Gophers hold a slight edge over the Cyclones on offense, 21.6 ppg to 21.1. Iowa State has a slightly better defense, especially considering the offenses they faced in their 6-6 campaign. Against Missouri, Oklahoma St., Kansas, Iowa and Texas A&M, they allowed between 34 and 41 points, losing every game. Minnesota doesn't have that kind of firepower, so expect the Cyclones to keep this one close.

Minnesota was also 6-6, their worst losses coming against Ohio St. (38-7) and Penn St. (20-0) in back-to-back weeks. They limp in off a 12-0 loss to Iowa. This could be a 7-6 game or something of that order. It's a toss-up, but the Gophers have an edge in the kicking game and that should get them a win.

PREDICTION: Gophers 20 Cyclones 10

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Chick-fil-A Bowl, Dec. 31, Atlanta, ESPN, 7:30 p.m., Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Tech Hokies (-4 1/2, 50) - The Vols have a load of talent and will be a better football team next season, though QB Jonathan Crompton will not be a part of it. The senior thrower had an excellent season, with 26 TDs and 12 INTs, and the Vols played well against stiff SEC opposition, losing to Florida by 10 and Alabama by 3. Their only blowout loss was a surprising 42-17 beating at Mississippi, but they finished strong, with wins over Vandy and Kentucky.

The 8-3 Hokies are about as good as they come from the ACC, with just 3 loses against 9 wins, most of them lopsided. Both the offense and defense turned it up after consecutive losses to Georgia Tech and North Carolina kept them out of the ACC championship game, but they won their final four games by a combined margin of 132-35. This one's about conference pride, and both teams will show up and play hard.

If you don't like hard hits, don't watch, because this one may be brutal. Take the Vols in a minor upset because it's really too close to call.

PREDICTION: Volunteers 26 Hokies 24

Outback Bowl, Jan. 1, Tampa, Fla., ESPN, 11 a.m., Northwestern Wildcats vs. Auburn Tigers (-7, 54) - One of the sneakier programs in the country, the Wildcats may surprise once again. After back to back losses to Syracuse and Minnesota, Northwestern was 2-2, but won two more before a 24-14 loss at Michigan State. They finished very strong, winning four of their last five, including wins at Iowa and Illinois before shocking Wisconsin, 33-31, to finish 8-4. They are well-coached and should be highly motivated for an SEC test against Auburn. The Wildcats will be seeking their first bowl win since 1949.

The Tigers possess a balanced attack, but were mauled in their conference, losing 5 of 8. Their defense is not sound. After beating Louisiana Tech 37-13 in their season opener, the least they've given up in any subsequent game was 20 and they are susceptible to big plays, especially by the air. They're no powerhouse, and they're playing a team with a better record, so expect them to crumble in crunch time.

PREDICTION: Wildcats 31 Tigers 21

Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, Orlando, Fla., ABC, 1 p.m., Penn State Nittany Lions (-3, 44) vs. LSU Tigers - The Tigers are 4-0 in bowl games under Les Miles, but they'll be up against it when they face Joe Paterno and his decades of experience readying teams for bowl games.

The Nittany Lions were close to getting a BCS bid, with just two losses on their resume and a solid defense, especially against the run, an area in which LSU has had problems. Penn State was 4th nationally in scoring defense at 11.8 ppg. LSU allowed 16 per outing. Penn State may have a bigger edge offensively with experienced QB Daryll Clark and a balanced attack. It's no gimme, but Penn State should emerge with a close win.

PREDICTION: Nittany Lions 27 Tigers 20

Gator Bowl, Jan. 1, Jacksonville, Fla., CBS, 1 p.m., Florida State Seminoles vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-3, 60) - Bobby Bowden will be coaching his final game for the Seminoles, so there's plenty of motivation for the 6-6 squad. The problem is that there isn't enough talent, especially on defense, to contain Noel Devine, Jock Sanders and the rest of the West Virginia offense.

The 'Noles, once one of the best defensive teams in the nation, allowed 30.8 points and 443.5 yards per game in 2009. That's just not going to cut it, especially against the Mountaineers, who weren't exactly lights out, but generally could get the job done. The 9-3 Mountaineers finished the season strong, losing by 3 to undefeated Cincinnati, and beating Pitt and Rutgers in their final two games. This could be a major mismatch if West Virginia gets off the mark with early scores.

PREDICTION: Mountaineers 38 Seminoles 17

All times Eastern

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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