NCAA College Football 2009-10 Bowl Week 4 Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Bowl Week 4 Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 2-6, 2010

All times Eastern

International Bowl, Jan. 2, Toronto, ESPN2, Noon, South Florida Bulls (-6 1/2, 50) vs. Northern Illinois Huskies - The Bulls have one major offensive weapon, freshman QB B.J. Daniels, who led the team in rushing with 798 yards and also provided 1766 yards of passing offense. Beyond Daniels, this offense doesn't offer much, but stopping the frosh flash is a chore.

Because of the lack of playmakers, South Florida was a rung below the elite Big East teams, and they were hammered by Cincinnati, Rutgers and Pittsburgh, though they did upset West Virginia. The offense is a one-man show, the defense, porous.

The good news for the Bulls is that the Huskies aren't exactly the overpowering type, going an identical 7-5, but in the Mid-American conference. South Florida has better athletes at most positions, and should enjoy some significant advantages over the Huskies, though they must stop the run. Northern Illinois led the MAC in rushing offense.

PREDICTION: Bulls 34 Huskies 24

Cotton Bowl, Jan. 2, Dallas, FOX, 2 p.m., Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Mississippi Rebels (-3, 50 1/2) - Mississippi was projected by many to crack the top 10 this season and fell well short, finishing 8-4. Now, they must prove themselves against a solid Oklahoma State team which lost just three games - to Texas, Oklahoma and Houston.

This will largely be a match-up of opposing quarterbacks. Zac Robinson leads the Cowboys; Jevan Snead takes snaps for the Rebels. Snead has the bigger arm, but he's also more prone to make mistakes. He tossed 20 TDs, but gave up 17 interceptions. To take some of the load off him, Mississippi will hand the ball off to sensational Dexter McCluster, who was unstoppable by season's end. The Cowboys defense will have to be disciplined to keep him in check.

The defenses, like the offenses, are about even, making this one a possible last-second shoot-out. The Cowboys get an advantage geographically, with the game in Dallas, and friendly fans could help overturn the Rebels. A very tough call goes in favor of Oklahoma State, which should win the turnover battle and maybe finish the game with either a pick or a score.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 30 Rebels 28

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Papajohns.com Bowl, Jan. 2, Birmingham, Ala., ESPN, 2 p.m., Connecticut Huskies vs. South Carolina Gamecocks (-4 1/2, 52) - It's good to see that Randy Edsall and his never-say-die Huskies found their way to a bowl game and getting to play against the old ball coach (Steve Spurrier) and the Gamecocks makes for an exciting match-up, but South Carolina just seems to be on the verge of something big. With all the confusion in the SEC, don't be surprised if they come out winging next season.

The Gamecock offense really suffered late in the season with consecutive lopsided losses to SEC teams, Tennessee, Arkansas and Florida, but finished strong with a win over Clemson to close out the season. This will be a hard-hitting affair. Both teams really bring it, but the feeling is that South Carolina just has better personnel and can contain the surprising Huskies' offense.

PREDICTION: Gamecocks 31 Huskies 21

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Liberty Bowl, Jan. 2, Memphis, Tenn., ESPN, 5:30 p.m., East Carolina Pirates vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-7 1/2, 63 1/2) - The SEC has another strong entrant in Arkansas, a team which came from nowhere to nearly beat Florida (lost, 23-20) and LSU (33-30). If the Pirates aren't on top of their game defensively, Arkansas QB Ryan Mallett (29 TDs, 7 INTs) will tear them apart with their pass-first offense.

Defensively, East Carolina has the edge, but the SEC offers more than what they faced in Conference-USA, even though they emerged as the conference champion with a 38-32 win over Houston. Particularly telling are the out-of conference losses by the Pirates: 35-20 at West Virginia; 31-17 at North Carolina; 16-3 vs. Virginia Tech. Arkansas is as good or better than those teams, so a win for the Razorbacks seems a near certainty.

PREDICTION: Razorbacks 34 Pirates 21

Alamo Bowl, Jan. 2, San Antonio, ESPN, 9 p.m., Michigan State Spartans vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders (-8, 60 1/2) - This game will be largely impacted by internal disciplinary actions taken at Michigan State where 10 players have been barred from playing in this bowl. Leaving the Spartans with less than their usual team allotment, the suspended included two starting wide receivers and a number of other starters.

Though the defense was less-affected by the suspensions, the Spartans probably were not going to be able to slow down the Red Raiders very much anyway. Texas Tech is ranked second in the nation in passing, and, if they can avoid costly turnovers, may blow away the 6-6 Spartans.

Late-breaking news on Dec. 28: ESPN reports that Tech head coach Mike leach has been suspended indefinitely for possibly mistreating a player, notably, Adam James, the son of ESPN's Craig James. That should even up the game a bit and likely change the odds back to -7. Confused? Don't feel alone. Take the points in what could turn out to be more a circus than a football game.

PREDICTION: Red Raiders 33 Spartans 28

GMAC Bowl, Jan. 6, Mobile, Ala., ESPN, 7 p.m., Central Michigan Chippewas (-4, 63) vs. Troy Trojans - It will be up to the Trojans to defuse the connection between QB Dan LeFevour and wideout Antonio Brown. The two Chippewas connected for 1020 yards and 9 TDs during Central Michigan's 9-2, MAC Championship season. The Trojans, champions of the Sun Belt, may not have much success in that department, though they can counter with the duo of QB Levi Brown and WR Jerrel Jerrigan, who hooked up for 62 completions and 947 yards.

Brown will spread the ball around against the Chips. There are 12 players on the team who caught 10 or more passes during the season. If Central Michigan wants to win, they're going to have to score 40 points, because it's unlikely they'll be able to slow down the Trojans, the 4th-most-prolific passing team in the country with 3972 yards through the air. The Trojans have scored 40 or more in each of their last 6 wins. The Chippewas will have to try to keep up.

PREDICTION: Trojans 44 Chippewas 38

All times Eastern

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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