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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football BCS Bowl Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 1-5, 2010

All times Eastern

Sugar Bowl, Jan. 1, New Orleans, LA, Florida Gators (SEC) (-12, 56) vs. Cincinnati Bearcats (Big East) - With all the news surrounding head coach Urban Meyer and whether he'll be around next season, the Gators probably don't need much motivation heading into this one, and the departure of Cincinnati head coach Brian Kelly for Notre Dame prior to this game has to be a first. Never before has a head coach left an undefeated team before a bowl game.

It's too bad for the Bearcats because they have an incredibly talented offensive team, but little to offer on defense. Cincy will probably run the Gator defense ragged, but they offer little resistance to Florida's offense. Expect Tim Tebow to come through with an all-world performance, both running and passing. If Florida can slow down the Bearcats even a little, this should turn into a rout because Cincinnati simply is out-manned defensively.

PREDICTION: Gators 45 Bearcats 27


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Rose Bowl, Jan. 1, Pasadena, CA, Ohio State Buckeyes (Big Ten) vs. Oregon Ducks (PAC-10) (-3 1/2, 51 1/2) - In what will probably be the best of the BCS games (the committee did a horrible job of selecting which teams play which, mostly due to not wanting Boise State or TCU - from the "lesser" conferences - to have any success), the Buckeyes find themselves looking to do what no Big Ten team has done in a decade: win the Rose Bowl. Ostensibly, Ohio state has a very good chance of doing it, because the PAC-10 may have been a little less than exceptional this season. USC, which normally plays for a national championship, or, barring that, plays here, was down this year, allowing other PAC-10 teams to flourish.

The Ducks have plenty of firepower with Jeremiah Masoli running the offense, but the Buckeyes will bring it on defense and limit Masoli and LaMichael James on the edges. The Ohio State defense has been a pretty solid unit throughout the season and they have continued to improve.

Offensively, Ohio State seems to have come into its own late in the season, especially following their second - and last - loss of the year, at Purdue. Since that 26-18 defeat, the Buckeyes have limited the opposition to 10 points or less in 4 of their last five games, all wins. The only time they allowed more than 10 points was against Iowa, in a 27-24 overtime win.

If the Buckeyes can keep Masoli and Co. bottled up, the offense should run roughshod over the porous Oregon defense. QB Tyrrelle Pryor has matured over the course of the year and won't be prone to mistakes. He can run, pass or hand the ball off to a powerhouse bunch of backs and wideouts.

PREDICTION: Buckeyes 31 Ducks 24


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Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 4, Glendale, AZ, TCU (Mountain West) (-7 1/2, 55) vs. Boise State Broncos (WAC) - By just about any measure, TCU should win this game, though selling Boise State short is usually a recipe for disaster, as the Broncos have had plenty of success in bowls the past few years.

Both squads enter the game undefeated, and, arguably, one of them should be playing for a national championship, rather than against each other. Had Texas not gotten the greatest breaks of the season in their one-point win over Nebraska, the BCS would have been thrown into a panic. As it was, five teams ended their regular seasons undefeated and the way the BCS dealt with it was to have the two "lesser" conference champions face off rather than potentially upset one of the more favored conference champs.

Ideally, TCU would have played Alabama and Boise, Texas. The winners of those games could have played for the national championship. That would have removed all doubt, but, as usual, it's not going to work out that way.

Statistically, this is a great match-up. Boise St. leads the nation in scoring offense, at 44.2 points per game. TCU is third, scoring at a rate of 40.7. On defense, TCU was the stingiest defense in the country, allowing just 233.3 yards per game and 12.4 points. Boise wasn't far back, at 299.6 and 17.7, but TCU played against better teams in the Mountain West conference than Boise did in the WAC. Still, the game will be played on grass, not paper, so prepare for an entertaining game between two teams that could be the best in the country.

The difference will be TCU's intense defensive pressure on Boise's QB, Kellen Moore, who has had a remarkable season, but will get more heat than normal, primarily from TCU defensive end Jerry Hughes. If Moore can make plays on the run, Boise will stay in this game; if not, the Horned Frogs will have everything their way. TCU's offense should not be overlooked as well. They have murdered opponents this season with an explosive blend of run and pass and are equally adept at tearing up defenses either way.

These two played a year ago in the Poinsettia Bowl, with TCU coming out on top of a 17-16 score. Boise state had led almost the entire game, but TCU is a better team this year. That said, it could be a closer call than what the oddsmakers suggest. Boise can play with any team in the country, as they've proven time and time again.

PREDICTION: Horned Frogs 24 Broncos 20


Orange Bowl, Jan. 5, Miami, FL, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (ACC) (-4, 51) vs. Iowa Hawkeyes (Big Ten) - This will be a showcase game without much meaning in the final scheme of things, but the contrast in styles will be interesting to witness.

Georgia Tech comes into this game off a 39-34 ACC championship win over Clemson back on December 5th. That game followed a 30-24 loss to Georgia which ended the Yellow Jackets' 8-game winning streak. Their only other loss was to Miami back in September, in a game which was their third in 12 days, so it could be that the Hurricanes caught a tired team that Thursday night. In any case, the two other losses came against teams which have already won bowl games, a very positive read for the Jackets.

Coach Paul Johnson's spread offense has been tough to stop this year. Georgia Tech was second in rushing yards nationally, behind Nevada. There isn't much more to their offensive scheme than run, run and run some more. QB Josh Nesbitt, a magician with the football, leads the offense and has scampered for almost 1000 yards this season, in addition to throwing for 1689, 10 TDs and 4 INTs. The heavy lifting is done by Jonathan Dwyer, who had amassed 1346 yards rushing. A bevy of other backs will also get their hands on the pigskin. Iowa will be up against it to stop them.

The Hawkeyes do have one of the better run defenses in the country, so don't expect Tech to blow them away, but rather, try to grind them slowly, which is usually how Iowa beats opponents. They don't possess much explosiveness on offense, but they will have their leader, QB Ricky Stanzi, back from a high ankle sprain suffered near the end of the season, which caused him to miss the last two games - at Ohio State, a 27-24 OT loss, and Minnesota, a 12-0 win.

Stanzi and Iowa don't impress offensively, but they will grind out first downs and beat you as they did 10 times this season, against just two losses. It's not surprising that they're underdogs here, but just four points isn't much. That's probably owing to the idea that Tech doesn't do much of anything well on defense, and that's the real issue here.

Iowa should control the clock, the score and the game with a plodding, yet effective, offense, and solid, stifling defense.

PREDICTION: Hawkeyes 27 Yellow Jackets 21

All times Eastern

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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