NCAA College Football 2009-10 BCS National Championship Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football BCS National Championship Picks

Rick Gagliano | January 7, 2010

All times Eastern

BCS National Championship Game, Pasadena, CA, Alabama Crimson Tide (SEC) (-5, 45) vs. Texas Longhorns (Big 12)

In what could be one of the least-interesting "national championship" games in the BCS era, the Crimson Tide of Alabama should roll over the Texas Longhorns and stake their claim as the nation's top college football team.

The Tide has done everything right in 2009 under head coach Nick Saban, including coming from behind in their season finale against arch-rival Aubrun and demolishing the mystique of Tim Tebow and the Florida Gators in the SEC Championship by an embarrassing 32-13 score.

By contrast, the Longhorns seemed to have been barely tested during the regular season, with the exception of their 16-13 win over Oklahoma back in October. It wasn't until the Big 12 Championship tilt with defensive-minded Nebraska that the Texas vulnerabilities were exposed.

Though Texas won the game, 13-12, they needed a recall of the game clock and a last-second field goal to keep their perfect record intact and advance, almost by default, to this game. Nebraska picked off Texas QB Colt McCoy three times and recorded 9 sacks for a total of 52 yards. The Cornhuskers also limited Texas to just 18 yards rushing for the entire game.

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Had Nebraska been able to muster more than 5 first downs and 106 yards of offense in that game, we might have seen the BCS in panic mode, forced to make a decision have either Cincinnati, TCU or Boise State play Alabama for all the marbles.

The often-criticized-but-never-challenged BCS model might have chosen Cincinnati from the Big East - one of the so-called "power" conferences, or, at worst, TCU, which rolled through the Mountain West unscathed. with the assistance of hindsight, we can see that either choice would have been incorrect, as the Bearcats were humiliated by Florida in the Sugar Bowl and Boise State scorched TCU in the Fiesta.

Not to downplay the importance of this game, but the BCS has had it wrong for several years, though this season has finally raised the eyebrows of even the most ardent supporters. Just scanning the BCS rankings prior to the bowls, Cincinnati was ranked third behind Alabama and Texas, and ahead of not just Florida (5), but TCU (4) and Boise State (6). In each of the four BCS bowl games already played, the lower-ranked team has defeated the higher-ranked. Obviously, this imperfect system for determining a national champion needs to be scrapped.

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Getting back to the task at hand, Alabama should dominate the Longhorns with their imposing defense, ranked #1 in the nation in points allowed at 11 pr game and second - to TCU - at 241.8 yards per game.

That Alabama's offense scores 31.7 points per game as compared to Texas' 40.7 (4th nationally) is unimportant. The Crimson Tide doesn't need to score much, considering what their defense usually does to opposing offenses. In 10 of their 13 wins, Alabama has allowed 15 points or less. They've held opponents to 7 points or fewer six times. The most any team has scored against them was 24 points, by Virginia Tech, in Alabama's season opening, 34-24 win on September 5. That game was long ago and on the road, an indication that the Longhorns will be fortunate to find the end zone more than once, if at all.

Alabama's corners will shut down Texas receivers Jordan Shipley and Malcolm Williams, while their bruising defensive line and linebackers will have Colt McCoy running for his life. Texas will be fortunate to grind out more than 50 yards on the ground and will likely record a season low number of first downs - maybe 10 to 12.

Alabama's offense, led by Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, is likely to have one of their better performances of the season. Besides the downhill rushing of Ingram, back-up Trent Richardson has provided plenty of spark late in the season, and QB Greg McElroy has become a cool customer in the pocket. Success running the ball will open up routes for Julio Jones, Maquis Maze and Colin Peek, though the Tide may not have to toss the pigskin more than 20 times in order to secure the win.

This could turn out to be one of the most lopsided title games in the history of college football, even though the oddsmakers have Alabama as less than a touchdown favorite. The line should have been closer to 10 or 13, as the game appears to be distinctly one-sided.

College football will have its final game and a team it can call "champion," though critics of the BCS will have to sit and wonder "what if" once again. After all, Boise State did finish the season 14-0.

PREDICTION: Crimson Tide 37 Longhorns 10

All times Eastern

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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