NCAA College Football 2009 Week 10 Picks early games

NCAA College Football 2009 Week 10 Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Week 10 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 5-7, 2009

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, November 5

7:30 pm Virginia Tech Hokies (-13, 51 1/2) at East Carolina Pirates - The Hokies have fallen on hard times, losing two straight conference games (Georgia Tech and North Carolina) and falling to 5-3. While they are still nationally ranked in some polls, they're hardly looking like a championship caliber team that usually is produced in Beamer-land. This game, on the surface, looks like an easy mark for the Hokies, who are in need of a win.

The Pirates are probably not going to fall easily. Also 5-3, East Carolina has two losses to ACC teams - West Virginia and North Carolina - by 15 and 14 - but both of those were road games. The burning question, were the oddsmakers just being cute, or do they really believe VaTech can't win by 2 TDs?

East Carolina is 4-1 in Conference-USA, tops in the Eastern division and headed for a showdown with Houston for the conference championship in December. This game can be used as a yardstick to gauge just how good they are. The offense will need to step it up, the defense is very good, and the fans will be pumped. They may lose at home, but not by much.

PREDICTION: Hokies 27 Pirates 22

Saturday, November 7

12:00 pm Virginia Cavaliers at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-13, 45) - The Hurricanes were nearly upset last week by Wake Forest, 28-27, a team which comes to play every week but is just short on talent. They're very similar to Virginia, which has had its moments in wins over North Carolina and Maryland, but back-to-back home losses to Georgia Tech and Duke have tarnished their upset image of late.

Miami has all the weapons on offense to rule this game right from the start, and, following last week's near-disaster, the coaching staff should have stressed the importance of focus and game preparation. Despite Miami's sullied reputation for lack of discipline, they still have enough talent to knock off the Cavaliers with relative ease. Expect the line to rise to 15 or 16 before kickoff, but the 'Canes can cover.

PREDICTION: Hurricanes 38 Cavaliers 17

12:00 pm Northwestern Wildcats at Iowa Hawkeyes (-16 1/2, 45) - At 9-0, the Hawkeyes find themselves in the unfamiliar position of being the hunted rather than the hunter in the chase for the Big 10 title. They're supposed to pound the Wildcats here at home, but they were also supposed to hammer Indiana last week, so why did they fall behind 24-14 in the 4th quarter only to rally for 4 TDs and win going away?

Much had to do with the wind conditions in that game. QB Ricky Santzi threw 4 INTs into the wind in the 3rd quarter, but his first two passes in the 4th (with the wind) resulted in TD passes of 92 and 66 yards.

At 5-4, Northwestern is competitive, actually beating Indiana two weeks ago, 29-28, but losing last week at home to Penn State, 34-13, so a similar score should be forthcoming. Expect Iowa to not make this contest as exciting as last week's and avoid looking ahead to next week's trip to Ohio State. The interesting stat is that both teams average exactly 25.7 ppg on offense, but Iowa is allowing only 15.8 compared to the Wildcats' 24.8. The Hawkeyes are due for a huge game, and this could be it.

PREDICTION: Hawkeyes 34 Wildcats 10

12:21 pm South Carolina Gamecocks (-7, 55) at Arkansas Razorbacks - After losing two of their last three games - albeit to Alabama and Tennessee - the Gamecocks need a win to regain some degree of swagger for their meeting with the Gators next week. Arkansas is as good a place as any to try to work out the offensive problems (averaging just 11 ppg over the past three weeks) and get the defense in attack mode.

South Carolina won this match-up 34-21 last year at home, but the 2009 Razorbacks are an enigma, losing at Alabama, 35-7, but then nearly winning at Florida, finally going down, 23-20. The Gamnecocks have a big edge on defense, but Arkansas enjoys an even larger bulge offensively, scoring at a 35.9 ppg clip - 7th nationally - compared to the Gamecocks' paltry 21.9. Add home field to the mix and an upset may be the result.

PREDICTION: Razorbacks 27 Gamecocks 21

2:00 pm Brigham Young Cougars (-13, 50) at Wyoming Cowboys - BYU took a week off after their humiliating, 38-7, loss to TCU and should be well-rested and prepared for their road trip into the Wyoming wilderness. The Cougars have a much more polished offense than the Cowboys, who have been shut out twice this season - by Colorado and Air Force - and held to just 10 points by Texas and Utah, though all but the Texas massacre (41-10) were on the road.

The Cougars need to begin impressing the pollsters and moving up the bowl ladder. Look for a real mauling here.

PREDICTION: Cougars 41 Cowboys 13

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2:30 pm Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-11, 55) - The Irish have had a difficult time stopping anybody, so Navy's triple option offense is probably going to present a huge challenge. The Middies are no knock-overs, as they have played Ohio State tough, losing 31-27, lost at Pitt, 27-14 and last week fell to Temple, 27-24, after winning five straight.

Statistically, games don't get much more even than this one, as the Irish aren't that awful against the run and the Midshipmen hold their own vs. passing QBs. It's easy to see how Notre Dame could grab an early lead and fend off the Navy attack, but it's just as easy to see this one as a low-scoring battle for field position. The Irish, perhaps looking ahead to Pitt next week, may not be as ready as they should be for the 3rd-best running game in the nation, and it will cost them.

PREDICTION: Misshipmen 30 Fighting Irish 24

3:30 pm Oregon Ducks (-6 1/2, 54 1/2) at Stanford Cardinal - That powerful win over USC was no fluke and the Ducks aren't about to suffer a letdown against a quality PAC-10 foe. Stanford is a solid contender, but that's all they are, whereas the Ducks are the real deal, the best 1-loss team in the nation and a near-lock to capture the conference title outright.

Oregon has won 7 straight by an average score of 40-13, and that's no misprint. The Ducks are an angry bunch, and while everyone marvels at their offense, led by Jeremiah Masoli and LaMichael James, but the defense is pretty good, too, allowing 300.9 yards and 17.1 points per outing.

PREDICTION: Ducks 38 Cardinal 17

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3:30 pm Ohio State Buckeyes at Penn State Nittany Lions (-3 1/2, 40) - Believe it or not, this game is the whole season for both of these Big Ten powerhouses. Penn St. already has a loss to Iowa - at home, no less, making the stigma even worse - and the Buckeyes host the Hawkeyes next week, but Ohio State already has two losses on their resume, so this is a must-win situation for them.

Penn State can hope that they win here and the Buckeyes beat Iowa next week, which would create at least a numerical tie in the standings. This game stacks up as one of the most even match-ups of the day, if not the entire season, with both teams sporting championship-caliber defenses and improving offense.

The last three meetings in Happy Valley resulted in a 1-point loss (2003, 21-20) one win (17-10, 2005); and a humbling defeat, 37-17, 2007, for the Nittany Lions, so home field hasn't offered much advantage. Ohio State has only had one hiccup, their 26-18 loss at Purdue, and can still win the Big Ten outright with a win here, a win next week and a season ending victory at Michigan. Their quest begins here.

PREDICTION: Buckeyes 23 Nittany Lions 20

3:30 pm Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-16, 60) - The Demon Deacons played their hearts out last week in a one-point home loss to Miami, and may be emotionally spent coming into this seemingly-impossible task against the 8-1 Yellow Jackets. That loss also left them two wins short of bowl eligibility at 4-5, and getting even here seems to be asking far too much. Wake Forest has lost every road game this season and are looking at making that record 4-for-4.

The Yellow Jackets probably aren't looking past this game, as they have Duke next week to close out their ACC schedule. A win here and next week would make them 7-1 and uncatchable in the ACC South.

PREDICTION: Yellow Jackets 44 Demon Deacons 21

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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