NCAA College Football 2009 Week 5 Picks early games

NCAA College Football 2009 Week 5 Picks

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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Week 5 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | October 1-3

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, October 1

7:30 pm Colorado Buffaloes at West Virginia Mountaineers (-17, 54 1/2) - After getting hammered by Colorado State and Toledo, the Buffs found their way on the range at Wyoming, September 19, winning, 24-0, and earning a week off. They come back on a Thursday night, nationally televised game to face the Mountaineers (also getting an extra week off before this game) who failed at Auburn, 41-30 in their last game. The 2-1 Mountaineers are one of the teams which will probably reach bowl status by year's end, but their defense is sorely lacking in tackling and pass defense skills. So too, the Buffaloes, who rank just a few spots ahead of West Virginia on defense.

While the Mountaineers hold a slight edge offensively, Colorado seems to have turned a corner on defense, though they certainly won't hold the West Virginia runners and receivers to 0 points as they did Wyoming. The Mountaineers have had trouble holding onto the football and turnovers could be costly here. The temptation to take the points is overwhelming, as Colorado won this meeting last year, 17-14, in OT, and, despite the change of venue, will manage to keep it close and maybe win outright.

PREDICTION: Buffaloes 27 Mountaineers 23

8:00 pm Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-10, 59) at UAB Blazers - Southern Miss nearly upset Kansas last week, losing late, 35-37, but covering the expansive line. The Golden Eagles will be without some key offensive players, including RB Damion Fletcher, their leading ground gainer, and a pair of receivers, DeAndre Brown and Damion Fletcher, but they have plenty of depth at wideout and QB Austin Davis has been sensational, tossing 8 TDs and just one pick in 4 games.

The Blazers will be seeking some level of respectability after being hammered by the Eagles, 74-14, and not having beaten Southern Miss in their previous nine meetings. At 1-3, UAB is looking at another losing season (4-8 last year), and this meeting comes on the heels of a 56-19 pasting at Texas A&M.

PREDICTION: Golden Eagles 41 Blazers 21

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Friday, October 2

8:00 pm Pittsburgh Panthers at Louisville Cardinals (-6 1/2, 53) - The Panthers were looking mighty confident after winning three straight over Youngstown St., Buffalo and Navy, but ran into a buzz-saw at NC State and a 38-31 loss. Still, Pitt is looking to capture the Big East flag this season and is generally solid on both sides of the ball, though least week's 20% 3rd down conversion rate led to their demise and is a troubling stat.

Louisville, despite consecutive road losses at Kentucky and Utah, actually held their own against two good opponents and should be ready for conference play, but face challenges, especially on offense, where they are scoring only 23 points per game, as compared to Pitt's 37.5. They've also turned the ball over too much and put pressure on their defense.

Pittsburgh is the better team, but they'll have to prove it by playing without turnovers and keeping the field position battle in their favor. It won't be easy, but a TD or better win is possible.

PREDICTION: Panthers 34 Cardinals 20

9:00 pm Utah State Aggies at Brigham Young Cougars (-24, 64 1/2) - BYU won this game 34-14 at Utah St. last season and they have owned the Aggies in this series the past decade. Making matters worse for Utah State, in addition to having to play BYU on their home turf, is that they're allowing 486 yards and 35.7 points per game.

As evidenced by their 53-34 win over Southern Utah last week, the Aggies have an offense, but the defense has big holes. With BYU fully recovered from their 54-28 loss to Florida State on 9/19, having topped a decent Colorado State team, 42-23, this one has the look of a complete thrashing.

PREDICTION: Cougars 58 Aggies 24

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Saturday, October 3

12:00 pm Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-2, 57 1/2) - The Wolverines hold the edge on both offense and defense, and it can be argued that they have played similar quality teams. The Spartans, however, are just 1-3, though the losses have been by 2, 3 and 8 points. It's interesting to note that Michigan State is a slight favorite, despite Michigan holding a perfect 4-0 record. The Wolverines have played well thus far and a better defensively than the Spartans.

The spread offense should give the Wolverines a distinct advantage in this annual rivalry. The Spartans won last season, 35-21, at home, but these two programs have gone in different directions. The Wolverines should improve to 5-0 while the Spartans search for answers.

PREDICTION: Wolverines 38 Spartans 27

12:20 pm Alabama Crimson Tide (-16, 46 1/2) at Kentucky Wildcats - Let's get real here. The Wildcats were completely outclassed by Florida last week, losing 41-7 at home, and while they get to stay put for this one, it doesn't get any easier. The Crimson Tide rolls into town ranked 3rd almost everywhere, and they're not about to let the Wildcats come as close as they did last year, when Alabama won a close call, 17-14, at home.

This is a more balanced Alabama offense than they had last season, tied with Kansas at #9 nationally at 40.5 ppg and the defense just dials up stops week in and week out. The closest anyone's come to beating Alabama through four games was Virginia Tech, who came within 10 points on their own field, and Kentucky isn't nearly of that stature. Besides, Alabama is probably a better team than they were then and this is their second straight SEC contest, so look for them to gain an early advantage and press it all the way to another resounding win.

PREDICTION: Crimson Tide 38 Wildcats 6

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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