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NCAA College Football 2009 Week 7 Picks
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Fearless Rick's 2009 College Football Week 7 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | October 14-17
All times Eastern - Click here for late games.
Wednesday, October 14
8:00 pm Boise State Broncos (-9, 53) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane - On paper, this looks like a pretty good match-up. Sadly, for the Golden Hurricane, the game will be played on grass. Tulsa usually has an explosive offense and almost no defense, the kind of scheme that plays perfectly into the hands of the Broncos. At 4-1, Tulsa looks promising, and they're at home, another strong point, but that one loss was a 45-0 beating put on them at Oklahoma.
Considering that Boise State is well on its way to an undefeated season (5-0) and this game was circled by the coaches early on as a possible bump in the road, watch out for a complete blow-out by the Broncs. Under the national spotlight once again, Boise will be out to impress, and between their wickedly effective offense and specially-designed hybrid defense (4-2-5), Tulsa should be prepared for the worst.
PREDICTION: Broncos 41 Golden Hurricane 16
Thursday, October 15
7:30 pm Cincinnati Bearcats (-3, 49) at South Florida Bulls - Is it wise to give Suth Florida points at home? Remember last season, when a highly-ranked Kansas team visited Raymond James Stadium as 7-point favs and left with a 37-34 loss? And just this year, the Seminoles came in as double-digit favorites only to be handed a 17-7 ticket home.
Now, the Bearcats are a fine team, but both of these squads are 5-0, and only Cincy is ranked, so how do you think that makes South Florida's fans, coaches and players feel? Slighted? Unloved? Angry?
The Bearcats have the better offense, no doubt, but they probably haven't faced a defense as good as South Florida's (5 TDs, 54 points allowed over 5 games, 263 ypg), so even getting a win won't be easy. Being from the East myself, I'm biased in favor of both teams. The winner should be ranked within the top 10, but probably won't be. Look for South Florida to deliver the first shocker of the week.
PREDICTION: Bulls 23 Bearcats 21
8:00 pm Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 50) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights - Another Big East contest with some conference title implications involved, mostly for 5-1 Pitt, though Rutgers, following an opening weekend crushing by Cincinnati (47-15), has had time to regroup against four straight pushovers, including a 34-13 win at Maryland (no surprise there), so they should be ready to get back into the race. Once again, the home team is getting points, and the Panthers, while very good offensively, aren't exactly adept at stopping the other guys. Pitt is allowing 335.8 ppg, and the Rutgers offense has had enough time to get the offensive kinks out, though their defense will probably have much more to do with getting their 5th straight win over the Panthers.
Pitt has not beaten Rutgers since coach Dave Wannstedt took the coaching reins in 2005, including last year's crushing 54-34 loss. Going out on a bit of a limb, this year's Rutgers team doesn't seem to have the skill players to stay with the Panthers for the whole 60 minutes. Pitt will prove itself here.
PREDICTION: Panthers 34 Scarlet Knights 21
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12:00 pm Oklahoma Sooners at Texas Longhorns (-3 1/2, 51) - Well, Sam Bradford seems to be OK and the Sooners are sure ready for this one, especially with a pair of losses already and coming off a steadying 33-7 win over Baylor.
The Longhorns surely remember last year's win over Oklahoma, which took place in Dallas, and this time around they get to play in Jerry Jones' new playground, Cowboy Stadium. That 45-35 win last season proved to be inconsequential, because after a last-seconds road loss at Texas Tech, the Big 12 rules gave the Big 12 South division title to the Sooners, only because they had the higher BCS ranking, keeping the Longhorns from the National Championship game.
Having already beaten Tech this time around, Colt McCoy and the burnt orange gang won't be burned again. You can do all the statistical analysis you like on this one, but the teams are fairly matched. Texas, however, is undefeated, with a chance at running the table, while the Sooners can only hope to play a spoiler's role.
PREDICTION: Longhorns 38 Sooners 30
Noting that, it's no surprise that the Badgers are favored over the unbeaten Hawkeyes, but this game will be no picnic. Unlike the usual Big Ten season, in which Michigan and Ohio State are the dominant teams, this game may represent the class of the conference. Iowa has already downed Penn State and the Badgers look like the only obstacle between them and a Big Ten title (well, except maybe that Nov. 14 meeting with the Buckeyes in Columbus). Right now, the Hawkeyes stand atop the conference with Ohio State, who closes out their season at Penn St., home vs. Iowa and at Michigan. A win here would go a long way toward the Hawkeyes' chances to take it all. This game will have everything - great offense, big hits, trickery and a shaking stadium. Iowa, with points, is just too good to pass up.
PREDICTION: Hawkeyes 23 Badgers 20
QB Joey Elliott just has to be more careful with the football (12 TDs and 9 INTs), because he's got a nice flotilla of receivers and the Boilermaker offense could give Ohio State fits. The key for Purdue may be the defense, which is just average, but if the offense doesn't turn the ball over, they stand a fighting chance. A loss by the Buckeyes would make everyone in the conference happy and Purdue just might be the team to do it. They're at home and they have absolutely nothing to lose.
PREDICTION: Boilermakers 34 Buckeyes 33
After bouncing LSU into the ranks of the defeated (5-1) with a 13-3 victory at the Swamp, the Gators are just going to get better and better as Tim Tebow fully recovers from his concussion and the team gets back to normal after a huge win. Arkansas already has losses in the conference to Georgia and Alabama (who beat them up by a 35-7 score), so look for conference loss #3 here, roughly along the lines of that Crimson Tide beating.
PREDICTION: Gators 38 Razorbacks 6
All times Eastern - Click here for late games
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