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Fearless Rick's NFL Conference Championships Picks
Rick Gagliano | January 24, 2010
All times Eastern
3:00 pm New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-7 1/2, 39 1/2) - Is this the end of the line for the Jets? Sure, they were one of just two teams that beat the Colts this season (The other was Buffalo, in the final week, when Peyton Manning and most of the offensive starters played just 3 series, and the game was played primarily in the middle of a blizzard.), but that was in week 16, without Peyton Manning and many other starters playing the second half.
Manning left with a 15-10 lead and 10:13 left in the third quarter. The Jets quickly turned that score around en route to a 29-15 victory and an eventual wild card spot in the playoffs. One wonders whether Indy head coach considered that they might have to play the gutsy Jets again. Whether he had or not, the decision to not end the Jets' hopes for the playoffs rests on his shoulders, and it would be the supreme irony if the Jets found a way to stifle the Colts and make their way to the Super Bowl.
The Jets have the defensive chops with which to do it, though they are going up against one of the top 3 quarterbacks to ever play in the NFL. When he's on his game, like he has been all season long, Manning is virtually unstoppable, and it doesn't seem to matter very much who his receivers are, though this group isn't particularly noteworthy beyond the talented Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark.
When the roles are reversed and the Jets have the ball is where the rubber meets the road in this contest. New York will have to depend on the running ability of Thomas Jones and surprising rookie Shonn Greene to gain field position against the Colts, because rookie QB Mark Sanchez isn't going to be called upon to throw the ball very often. At least that seems to be the Jets' game plan. There will no doubt be some wrinkles that the Colts haven't seen, but those things work both ways. Surely, the Indianapolis offense has yet to open up its bag of tricks and may not have to.
After the way the Colts handled Baltimore in their 20-3 win last week, they're going to be very tough to run against, even with New York's big, agile offensive line. Not only will they have to handle the top tandem of defensive ends in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, but Gary Brackett has been playing lights out at middle linebacker, so the Jets may want to pick on one of the two Indy corners - Jerraud Powers or Kelvin Hayden.
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That may not be exactly what the Jets want to do, but they may be forced into it if the running game stalls. The Colts offense, on the other hand, would be perfectly happy throwing the ball 90% of the time. That's how they hurt opponents and Manning will not be reluctant to throw against top defense in the league.
Getting the score to the over/under number of 39 1/2 is going to take some doing, especially in the case of the Jets. If they somehow manage to find the end zone more than twice, it will be a big story. Their offensive production may top out at about 20 points, but, looking at the blown opportunities created by the Ravens last week, New York's defense may notch a score itself or at least set up the offense in enviable field position.
Again, you could say the same thing for the Colts. They'll try to keep everything in front of them, a la former head coach Tony Dungy's cover-2 defensive scheme. Wideouts Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery may try some deep stuff, but it's risky. Sanchez is likely to be under pressure on long-developing routes.
In the final analysis, the Colts appear to be the team destined to play in the Super Bowl two weeks from now, but the Jets will surely not go down without a fight, and a vicious one, at that. A Jets win would require the supreme effort from everyone, plus some breaks along the way. The Jets will produce a turnover or two, which should keep them in this until the 4th quarter. New York does have the luxury of having met these guys before and, having beaten them once, have a psychological advantage.
Giving them a touchdown and 1/2 a point seems to be too much of a good thing. Colts will win a close one, a heartbreaker for the Jets and their fans.
PREDICTION: Colts 20 Jets 17
First, there's the Brett Favre story, a Louisiana native who returns to the NFL with the Jets, then the Vikings, and takes them all the way to the conference championship, with an eye on the Super Bowl.
Then there's the real New Orleans story, of a city devastated just a few years ago, it's team decimated but not discouraged, who, on the arm of Drew Brees and the legs of one Reggie Bush, reach the pinnacle of NFL success.
Both teams are extremely talented offensively. Both have reasons to move on to the final game. Both won in blowout fashion in the divisional round. This game should be one for the ages and presents an unusually difficult challenge in handicapping this late in the season, but somebody has to prevail and somebody's story ends here.
The Saints have a distinct advantage on their home field in the Superdome, where the fans will be at their raucous best. Minnesota will have to use hand signals and silent counts due to crowd noise and false starts could put them into first-and-15 or 3rd-and-long situations, which would be a huge advantage for the Saints.
Last week, when Favre's offense and extreme defensive pressure led to a 34-3 thumping of the Cowboys, the Vikings had that championship look. They won't enjoy the same level of success on defense against Brees and the Saints. The New Orleans QB was sacked just 20 times during the regular season. In last week's 45-14 throttling of the Cardinals, he wasn't even touched and consequently had his way with the Arizona secondary. Minnesota will apply more pressure, but Brees will be able to delivery under duress.
The Saints will have trouble handing Favre and his cadre of receivers, in addition to having to find ways to slow down running back Adrian Peterson. That's no easy task, especially since the Saints were 21st against the run (122.2 ypg), though that may be cancelled out by the fact that the Vikings were 19th against the pass (218.4).
The Saints have never been to the Super Bowl. Minnesota has been there four times and has never won, though it's ancient history, since the last time they played in the final game of the season was in 1977 when they were bumped off by the Raiders, 32-14. It's been 33 years. Brett Favre was 8, so the Vikings have as much a right to move forward as the Saints.
After all the analysis and insight, the winner will probably be determined by who makes more big plays and Minnesota seems to have the right mix in Favre, Peterson, the devastatingly quick Percy Harvin and wideout Sidney Rice. They also have playmakers on defense in the form of DE Jared Allen and tackle Pat Williams. Antoine Winfield is also a shutdown corner.
The Saints have Brees, Bush and lots and lots of prayers for their defense. While New Orleans has had a couple of great seasons with these players, and Bush is finally at full health, they're up against one of the game's best ever in Brett Favre. Like him or loathe him, Favre has been the difference-maker for the Vikings this season and he's a determined individual with his sights set on the Super Bowl.
The Saints won't deny him.
PREDICTION: Vikings 34 Saints 27
All times Eastern
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