NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Divisional Picks Saturday games

NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Divisional Picks - Saturday games

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Fearless Rick's NFL Divisional Picks - Saturday Games

Rick Gagliano | January 16, 2010

All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games.

4:30 pm Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7, 57) - Probably the best way to play this one is to just take the over 57 approach and hope the game unfolds like last week's OT marathon in the desert, won by the Cardinals, 51-45. Kurt Warner and Drew Brees are adept at lighting up any defense, but Warner was simply amazing against the Packers - 29-33, 379 yards, 5 TDs, no picks - and he figures to be similarly sharp against the Saints.

The Cardinals did this last season, as they ran all the way to the Super Bowl, beating teams senseless with their aerial assault. They're doing it again. Last season was no fluke. This is a team that can throw with extreme efficiency, and they might be better with Early Doucet replacing Anquan Boldin and moving into the slot. Remember, Doucet was an All-American on a national championship team at LSU just a few years ago. He runs great routes and rarely drops anything in his vicinity. Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerlad on the wings give Warner plenty of open looks.

Defense? Forget about it. Even though there's been a lot of talk about the improvement to the Saints' defense, they're not even as good as Arizona's, so that argument doesn't hold up. This one's pretty simple. Do you want to give Kurt Warner and his trio of wideouts 7 points in a must-win situation on a fast track?

I didn't think so.

I made the mistake of picking against Warner and the Cardinals (my only miss of the weekend), but, I did warn everyone. I'm not going to make the same mistake again. These guys are hungry and the Saints haven't been that impressive in the second half of the season. They come into this game cold, with a week off following three straight losses to finish the regular season. They peaked in that 38-17 blowout over the Patriots, and we now know that the Pats were just patsies. Since that game, in the final five weeks of the season, they won by 3 at Washington, by 3 again at Atlanta, and then lost to Dallas, Tampa Bay and Carolina. Arizona might just bury them.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 38 Saints 31

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8:15 pm Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-6 1/2, 44) - The Ravens came out breathing fire against the Patriots last week and virtually ended the game in the first quarter. With a 24-0 lead at the end of that period, the only questions were just how monstrous was the win going to be and whether Tom Brady would survive the Ravens' relentless pass rush.

Brady, who was sacked just 16 times during the regular season, ate turf three times and was harassed and surrounded just about every snap. Consequently, Baltimore picked him off three times and rolled to an easy, 33-14 victory.

Now, the Ravens roll into Indy, and will be up against Peyton Manning, who has taken only 10 sacks this season. Manning has the quickest release in the game, and no doubt he'll be prepared for Baltimore's blitzes with hot reads, screens and draws, so don't expect the Ravens to jump out to a big, early lead here. In fact, there's every indication that Manning will guide the Colts to an early score. He may be the best QB ever to take the field in the history of the NFL, so even Baltimore's pressure isn't likely to faze him.

These teams did meet earlier in the year, with the Colts winning 17-15 in Indianapolis. In that game, the Ravens were held to a field goal in the 4th quarter after failing to punch it in from the one-yard line. Manning rallied his guys to a winning field goal by Matt Stover with 7:02 left in the game, but neither team could muster enough offense for another score.

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The Ravens did pick off Manning twice in that game, so they know this offense well. If any team can stop Manning this is the one. They have many different defensive looks, ranked 8th in the league against the pass, and besides Ray Lewis playing like a man possessed, Terrell Suggs has had a Pro Bowl season and Ed Reed has been the league's best safety for the last five years. The Colts, past Manning, don't have a running game, and besides Reggie Wayne, their receivers are young, inexperienced and untested in critical playoff scenarios.

On defense, the Colts will have trouble stopping Baltimore's punishing rushing game. Led by Ray Rice, a stout, bruising back, the Ravens change it up with Willis McGahee and fullback Le'Ron McLain. Unless Baltimore's huge offensive line suffers flu symptoms, the Ravens should run over, around and through Indy's defense. QB Joe Flacco, who only completed 4 of 10 last week against New England, may not have to do much for the second week in a row.

These teams have met 7 times since 2002, with the Colts winning every time, mainly by large margins. Colts' starters haven't played a full game in almost a month, when they won at Jacksonville, 35-31. They're surely well rested, but may not be as sharp as they'd like to be. This figures to be closer than the line suggests, and Baltimore could actually win handily. With an unstoppable running game against a team that allowed 126.5 rushing yards per game (26th, just ahead of Detroit), you have to respect the Ravens.

Besides, the Colts were dead last in rushing, at 80.9 yards per game. Don't be surprised to see the Ravens line up with three down linemen, Ray Lewis and 7 DBs. Manning will have nowhere to throw and nowhere to hide.

PREDICTION: Ravens 27 Colts 24

All times Eastern - Click here for Sunday games

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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