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NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Divisional Picks - Sunday games
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DTMagazine Home Pro Football Divisional Picks - Saturday games
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Fearless Rick's NFL Divisional Picks - Sunday Games
Rick Gagliano | January 17, 2010
All times Eastern - Click here for Saturday games.
1:00 pm Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2 1/2, 45 1/2) - Arguably, no team has been playing better defense than the Dallas Cowboys the past 4 weeks. Following a tough, 20-17 loss to San Diego, Dallas beat New Orleans 24-17 at the Superdome, then blanked Washington and Philadelphia in successive weeks before smothering the Eagles, 34-14, to advance into the divisional round.
While the media focuses on Tony Romo and the offense, the Dallas defense has grown ferocious. In last week's win, they allowed just 56 yards rushing to the Eagles and forced four turnovers. Given the predictable fumbling by Viking running back Adrian Peterson, and Brett Favre's propensity to sometimes wing it and pray, there's a good chance that Dallas will win the turnover battle, and thus, the game.
The Cowboys actually ended the regular season 2nd overall in points allowed, at 15.6, behind the Jets. Minnesota's defense was tenth (19.5), but they ranked higher than Dallas in both rushing and passing yards allowed, though not by much. Minnesota's offense was second in the league at 29.4 points per game, with Dallas at 22.6, but the Cowboys generated an average of 20 yards more offense per game than the Vikings, suggesting that Minnesota will be dealing with a team that too often settles for field goals rather than touchdowns in the red zone.
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Minnesota's been phenomenal at home this season, going 8-0, but they haven't faced a quality team in the dome since October, when they beat the Ravens in the final seconds, 33-31. Prior to that they topped the 49ers, 27-24, on an absolute prayer throw by Favre, and beat the Packers by 7, so they are capable, though the winning margin may be slim.
Some of the Viking's early season luster was wiped away in losses at Arizona, Carolina and Chicago, though it's important to note that all of those games were played outdoors. Favre will have the luxury of a non-wether environment no matter what pending a Vikings win, as they'll host the Cardinals or play at New Orleans, depending on the outcome of that game.
This should be a close game until the end, but the Cowboys may get the better of Minesota's suspect secondary with Romo's mobility. These are two sack-happy defenses, so expect both QBs to be under the gun throughout. A turnover or two could really change the outcome, and Dallas has been getting most of those lately.
PREDICTION: Cowboys 24 Vikings 17
Whenever I see a line I think might me off a few points, I generally check the Over/Under to see if I can figure out the mind-set of the Vegas crowd. At 42, there isn't much to go on, but are they thinking Chargers 28 Jets 14, or more along the lines of 24-17? 42 points is exactly 6 touchdowns, so, unless it's going to be a Chargers blowout, there are going to be scores other than TDs.
The Chargers have won 11 straight, but 6 of those wins were by 7 points or less. During that span, against teams with good defenses - Oakland, the Giants (Week 9, before they fell apart), Dallas and Washington, the most they managed to score was 27 points (Oakland). If the Jets offense grinds like it did last week at Cincy - and there's no reason to believe they won't - Philip Rivers won't have the ball in his hands very often, and when he does, his receivers are going to be pretty well covered. He'll have a hard time putting it into the end zone more than 3 times, if even that many.
New York's defense has been downright stingy over the past 7 games (6 wins), allowing just 63 points in those games, an average of 9 per game, so it becomes very difficult to believe that the Chargers are going to overwhelm them with their pass-oriented offense.
The Chargers were second-last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (88.9), ahead of just Indianapolis (80.9). It's amazing that those two teams are the picks to advance to the AFC championship, devoid of running games, but there you have it.
I'm not buying it. The Jets led the league in rushing offense, and the Chargers were a middling 20th against the run. This should not come as a shock, but it will to the casual fan. The Jets will dominate time of possession, shut down San Diego's one-dimensional offense and persevere late in the game on some gutsy Mark Sanchez throws and runs.
PREDICTION: Jets 23 Chargers 20
All times Eastern - Click here for Saturday games
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