NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Super Bowl XLIV Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLIV Picks

Rick Gagliano | February 7, 2010

All times Eastern

Super Bowl XLIV

Indianapolis Colts
vs.
New Orleans Saints

To provide the best fan experience, this year's Super Bowl picks is broken down on three pages:

Offense vs. Defense (released Friday, Jan. 29)
Special Teams, Coaching, Intangibles (Sat., Jan. 30)
Final Analysis, Picks and Props (Sun. Jan. 31)

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Line: Indianapolis Colts (-6, 56 1/2) vs. New Orleans Saints

When the Colts have the Ball:

No quarterback has ever demonstrated as acute an understanding of defenses and how to attack them than Colts' QB Peyton Manning. His uncanny ability to read defenses and not be fooled by shifting coverage, blitzes and line stunts sets him apart from almost every other player to ever take a snap in the NFL. He may be the best ever and for that reason the Colts' offense starts and ends with him.

Manning is also one of the most accurate passers ever. His throws, which often have to be dead-on, usually find the chest or hands of his receivers. Manning almost never has a bad game, and tosses at players' knees or over their heads are for other pigskin-chuckers, not Manning.

New Orleans will try to get to him with their big, agile front four and occasional blitzes. Defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis and DE Will Smith are the main pass rushers. Smith led the team with 14 sacks; Ellis accounted for five. The Saints aren't likely to blitz as often as usual, because Manning is deadly against it, but any of the linebackers can come, but watch for strong safety Roman Harper to possibly come off an edge.

The Colts were dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game, and the trio of Joseph Addai, Mike Hart and Donald Brown will spend more time helping out in protection than carrying the football. The Saints aren't worried about Indy's runners and shouldn't be. Their linebackers, especially Scott Fujita and Johnathan Vilma can fill any hole and run sideline to sideline. The Colts will try to run in the middle, setting up play action.

When Manning drops back to pass, though, that's when the fun begins for the Colts. With a year of working with newcomers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie, the Colts will use four wideouts 40-60% of the time, making life miserable for the New Orleans secondary. The main targets - Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark - haven't had to do much during the playoffs, so they'll be fresh, fit and ready to fly.

The Saints' secondary is very capable. Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter are more than adequate in coverage, and they'll get plenty of help from All-Pro free safety Darren Sharper, the best defensive weapon on the team. A ball-hawk of extraordinary talent, Sharper has seen enough film to understand the Colts' tendencies and may pick off a pass, but as good as he is, Manning will know where he's going on almost every play.

New Orleans will be fortunate if they can hold the Colts to less than five scoring opportunities. Unless something changes radically by game time, the Colts should be on track to score in the 30s.

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When the Saints have the Ball:

As deadly as is the Colts offense, the Saints led the league with 31.9 points per game during the regular season, and continued to pile up points against both Arizona and Minnesota. With Drew Brees at the helm, Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas as backs, New Orleans possesses the best all-purpose backfield in the league today.

The Saints will grind Thomas in the middle, try to get Bush loose on the edge with pitches or screens and, if successful, will open the playbook for Brees to go downfield to Marques Colston, Devery Henderson and tight end Jeremy Shockey, who was hobbled against both the Cardinals and Vikings, but is expected to be at nearly full strength.

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Trying to contain the Saints' organized madness on offense, the Colts' defense better be at their best. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis accounted for 24.5 sacks this season, but may not be much of a factor here because the Saints' line is solid and Brees has a quick release. The Colts also don't blitz much, relying on a disciplined zone defense to handle most passing situations, of which there will be plenty.

Indianapolis may be more concerned about stopping the run, as they ranked 24th against it, allowing an average of 126.5 yards per game, though they did well in their two playoff games, against the Ravens and Jets, both teams with impressive rushing attacks. Stopping Thomas inside and Bush outside will be the first order of business, a task that falls squarely on the shoulders of middle linebacker Gary Brackett, who has solidified this unit.

In the secondary, there may be issues at the corners. Kelvin Hayden and Jerraud Powers are both young and inexperienced. Neither played every game this year, and while Hayden is in his third year, Powers is a raw rookie. Brees will have his sights set on beating him deep.

While the Indianapolis corners are young, they will get plenty of help from safties Antoine Bethea and Melvin Bullitt. Both have good instincts and can cover plenty of ground. Bethea is an exceptional hitter who will make the Saints' receivers wary of running routes in the middle of the field. That said, New Orleans should find more than enough space - both running the ball and in the secondary - to move down the field with alacrity.

Next: Special Teams, Coaching, Intangibles (Sat., Jan. 30)

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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