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NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Super Bowl XLIV Picks
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DTMagazine Home Fearless Rick's Super Bowl Picks (Offense vs. Defense) Special Teams, Coaching, Intangibles Final Analysis, Picks and Props Super Bowl Scores, MVPs, 1967-2009
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Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLIV Picks
Rick Gagliano | February 7, 2010
All times Eastern
Indianapolis Colts
To provide the best fan experience, this year's Super Bowl picks is broken down on three pages:
Offense vs. Defense (released Friday, Jan. 29)
Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Special Teams
When it comes to special teams, the Saints have an advantage if Reggie Bush is returning punts. It was notable that Bush went back on punts against the Cardinals, and every time Arizona could not maintain offense, Bush loomed a huge threat and eventually delivered a return for a touchdown which put the game away.
Against the Vikings, Courtney Roby was the weapon on kickoffs, with 143 yards on 5 returns (28.6). Roby and Bush offer New Orleans potentially-great field position if they can get their hands on the ball. Especially in Bush's case, Indy's Pat McAfee would be advised to aim for the sideline whenever the Colts are forced to punt.
The Colts return men - Chad Simpson, kickoffs, and T.J. Rushing, punt returns, are not especially dangerous and New Orleans shouldn't have much of a problem containing them. With so much of the emphasis on the offense in Indianapolis, special teams are almost an afterthought, and though the Colts aren't especially proficient in that regard, they are competent.
Place-kicking could become an important aspect of this game, whether it's close or not. If either team has set-ups from inside 50 yards, their kickers are eminanetly capable of delivering the goods. Indy's Matt Stover is a proven commodity, with a career percentage of 83.7. This season with the Colts, he was 2-for-2 on kicks between 40 and 49 yards.
Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley was relatively unknown until he hit the winning field goal in overtime against Minnesota, propelling the Saints to the Super Bowl. Hartley played in just 5 games this season, but delivered on 9 of 11 attempts, though none were in the 40-49 range. In 2008, however, he was 13 of 13, including hitting all four from the 40-49-yard distance. Following his NFC Championship win, he's full of confidence and much younger than Stover, which means the Saints may try for 3s from deeper than would the Colts.
If the game comes down to one kick, both the Saints and Colts should be confident.
Coaching
The Saints have the edge in terms of coaching experience, though this will be the first Super Bowl experience for both New Orleans' Sean Payton and Indianapolis' Jim Caldwell, who is completing his first year as head coach of the Colts, following Tony Dungy's retirement at the end of last season.
Caldwell has been well-prepared and groomed under Dungy, and has an unflappable, unemotional style, much like his predecessor. Having been with the Colts since 2002, Caldwell spent the last four years with the title of Assistant Head Coach. Prior to that, he was the quarterback coach, so much of what Peyton Manning does offensively has been filtered and refined by Caldwell.
With all the time he's spent with the Colts, Caldwell is unlikely to make mistakes, especially when Indy has the football. Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore and Offensive Line coach Howard Mudd give Caldwell plenty of experience on which to rely. Defensive Coordinator Larry Coyer may have been the best find in the NFL in 2009. His pro experience with the Jets, Broncos and Buccaneers paved the way to his appointment and the Colts' defense has continued to improve under his tutelage.
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Saints' head coach Sean Payton is the Mike Leach of the pro ranks, a kind of mad scientist when it comes to offense, his scheme have propelled New Orleans to the top in his three years at the helm. Payton is much more emotional than Caldwell, and his enthusiasm filters down to the players.
Payton knows what he's got on the field and is also one of the best clock and game managers in the league. Seldom prone to mistakes, his tireless efforts with the offense make New Orleans a somewhat unstoppable force, once they get rolling in the right direction. Payton has been known to be unconventional, so New Orleans will likely have some surprises for the Colts come game time.
Offensive Coordinator Pete Carmichael has been with Payton since he came to the Saints, and much of what they do offensively is refined by him. Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams came to the Saints in 2009 with solid credentials. He previously was the head coach of the Bills (2001-03) and defensive coach with the Redskins and Jaguars after that. In his first year, he's turned the Saints into a ball-hawking unit that focuses on forcing turnovers.
Intangilbles
The biggest elements emotionally are the Saints desire to deliver a Super Bowl win to the people of New Orleans and the Colts' desire to win their second in the last three years. Saints players seem to thrive on the emotional boost they get from their fans, but this game will be on a neutral site without the noise and atmosphere of the Superdome. Still, the players will be pumped. Having come this far, they share a strong desire to close the deal.
For Indianapolis, this is more business than pleasure. The Colts have a very workmanlike attitude and are usually well-prepared. Getting their level of intensity to as high a pitch as New Orleans' will probably not be possible and it could be trouble in the early stages of the game as they try to match the Saints' fire with coolness.
The other major factor is that the game will be outdoors. Both the Colts and Saints play their home games indoors, though through the regular season, both teams had seven wins on the road, the lone road loss for both teams coming in the season's final week, when the starters were limited. The Saints won all six of their outdoor games by comfortable margins, as they marched through the NFC, except their last two: at Washington and Atlanta, both 3-point wins.
The Colts also dominated on the road early on, and, like the Saints, had close calls later in the season, with a 17-15 win at Baltimore, a 35-27 win at Houston and a 35-31 shootout win at Jacksonville.
For both teams, weather was not an issue, though there is the potential for rain and wind in Miami, which could turn the game into a battle of attrition. However, the prospects for fine weather in early February in South Florida are generally good, so the chances of a sloppy field or high winds are slight.
If there is some weather-related condition, the edge would probably go to Brees, who spent some years in San Diego, where conditions are usually fine, but did play quite a bit outdoors. His college career at Purdue should serve him well. Because the Colts' offense relies so heavily on the passing game, Indianapolis might find itself at a disadvantage should Mother Nature turn nasty on game day.
Next: Final Analysis, Picks and Props (Sun. Jan. 31)
All times Eastern
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