NFL Pro Football 2009-10 Super Bowl XLIV Picks

Untitled

Get Winning Football Picks!
Get NFL football predictions and NCAA College Football picks against the spread plus 2009 Super Bowl XLIV Odds.
www.nsawins.com

Beat the NFL odds and college football lines with expert NFL picks and college football picks.

Sports handicapping:
Get NFL picks from Top Ten Cappers, the best Football Picks on the web.
toptencappers.com

Beat the NFL odds and college football lines with expert NFL picks and college football picks.

Fearless Rick's NFL Super Bowl XLIV Picks

Rick Gagliano | February 7, 2010

All times Eastern

Super Bowl XLIV

Indianapolis Colts
vs.
New Orleans Saints

To provide the best fan experience, this year's Super Bowl picks is broken down on three pages:

Offense vs. Defense (released Friday, Jan. 29)
Special Teams, Coaching, Intangibles (Sat., Jan. 30)
Final Analysis, Picks and Props (Sun. Jan. 31)

Location: Sun Life Stadium, Miami, FL
Time: 6:00 pm EST
Line: Indianapolis Colts (-6, 56 1/2) vs. New Orleans Saints

Final Analysis, Picks and Props

Super Bowl XLIV should be a good one. Both teams have exceptional offenses and capable defenses, so there's a balance that will keep the score from getting out of hand. Holding both offenses down for extended periods of time, however, is unlikely. There's going to be plenty of scoring, and the outlook is for the game to meet or exceed the number set by Las Vegas (56 1/2).

Given that both teams will probably score more than 20 points, it won't take much, especially in the 4th quarter when the offenses have an edge due to fatigue, to get the score close to or into the 60s. Look for both teams to find the end zone at least three times, add in a field goal or two for each and a winning touchdown, and the score looks like it could surpass the over/under line at any point n the 4th quarter.

Figure on six touchdowns (42 points), three field goals (9) and another late touchdown (7) and you're staring at 58. The only way the score doesn't get into the 50s is if one team dominates or New Orleans finds continued success running the football. Turnovers deep in opponent territory are another possibility, but both teams take good care of the football. There aren't many fumblers on either side, and Manning and Brees - especially Manning - don't throw many picks.

As for propositions, any play with Reggie Bush should be a no-brainer, whether it be rushing yards, return yards, receptions or total yards. Bush should have an excellent game from wherever he lines up.

Another prop that could be played is what the first score will be. Almost certainly it's going to be a touchdown, either on a broken coverage or a big play from one of the running backs. There's too much offensive talent on the field to think differently.

Now it's time to determine which team will win Super Bowl XLIV. Almost every announcer, opinionator or talking head on radio or TV is taking the Colts, which leads me to believe that the game is going to be closer than the -6 line Vegas has imposed on Indianapolis.

Sure, Peyton Manning is one of the top three quarterbacks of all time, maybe the best ever, but that fact alone doesn't win anything. The New Orleans offense was far and away the best in the league this season in terms of producing points, and they're not about to pack up and call it a day on the biggest stage in sports. New Orleans will go toe-to-toe with the Colts and match them score for score.

Play in both secondaries is the key to the game and New Orleans has a decided experience edge. While Manning is more adept at matriculating the ball downfield in an organized manner than Brees, the potential for big plays rests with the Saints. Brees, Bush, Colston and Shockey can all deliver defining moments and undeniably, Reggie Bush is the most dangerous player on the field. The more touches he gets, the closer the Saints will be to victory.

--- Story continues below ---

Another key element will be emotion, and this may be the ultimate key to the game. It's tough to stop people who are determined to do a certain thing, so don't believe for a moment that the Saints are happy just to be there. Their desire to win the game for the people of New Orleans is offset by their relative inexperience, but any distractions should only endure through the opening 7 or 8 minutes of the game. After that, it's down to business.

I've picked plenty of Super Bowls, but none more vexing than this. As a retired gambler, I won't be making any wagers, but as a handicapper, with full knowledge of all the elements, the intangibles, the ebb and flow of emotion and momentum, I found this game extremely difficult, if not impossible to dissect and come up with an opinion either way.

That said, I believe in Peyton Manning's greatness. A sure Hall of Fame entrant after he retires, winning a second Super Bowl would only add to his greatness as a football player, and there's a very good likelihood that the Colts will win. However, the Saints appear to be the team of destiny, and with so many people blindly lining up with the Colts, I have to take the Saints with the points.

As mentioned in the opening segment, the pass rush of Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney may be neutralized by three components: Brees' quick release, loose coverage or confusion in the Indianapolis secondary, and solid blocking and blitz pick-ups by the Saints' line and backs. Add that to the emotional high the Saints will be experiencing and it adds up to, at the very least, a razor-close game that could come down to the final seconds. New Orleans may win, but even if they don't, the Colts aren't going to take the title by more than 4 points.

PREDICTION: Saints 34 Colts 30

Beat the NFL spreads each week when you sign up for the NFL expert picks offered by our NFL handicappers.

All times Eastern

Copyright 2008, 2009, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

Untitled

Check out the web's best Check out the web's best NFL Picks and Free NFL Picks from Picksnfl.com.

Beat the NFL odds and college football lines with expert NFL picks and college football picks.

Bankroll's free sports picks website has valuable football betting info, including NFL and college football picks. Check out their ncaa football top 25 and nfl power ratings lists which are updated weekly.

Looking for great football picks?
Get free NFL picks and College Football Picks from Wunderdog Sports Picks.
www.freeunderdog.com

Onsite Sports Links

NFL Schedule
NFL Standings
NFL Matchups

NCAA Football Schedule
NCAA Football Standings
NCAA Football Matchups

MLB Baseball Schedule
MLB Baseball Standings
MLB Baseball Matchups

NHL Schedule
NHL Standings
NHL Matchups

NBA Schedule
NBA Standings
NBA Matchups

NASCAR Schedule
NASCAR Standings
NASCAR Matchups

NCAA Basketball Schedule
NCAA Basketball Standings
NCAA Basketball Matchups