NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 10 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 10 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 10 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 12-16

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

(Byes: Houston, N.Y Giants)

Thursday, Nov. 12

Chicago at San Francisco (-3, 43 1/2), 8:20 pm - A fairly smart football coach once said, "emotion will get you through the first half." That seems to be the case for the San Francisco 49ers, who played with emotion and passion and intensity though the first few weeks of the season, but lately have fallen victim to reality. And the reality is that they are not a playoff-contending team.

In case you haven't looked at the standings lately, the 'Niners are now 3-5, with four straight losses on the books. when they were 3-1, everybody loved them, but, love fades, and quickly, in the NFL. Interesting twist to this game (besides the fact that more than 2/3rds of the nation won't see it) is 49er coach Singletary hosting the team from his playing days, the Bears, a team in a not-so-special place themselves, losers of 3 of the last 4 games.

A tough call, but for all the hype surrounding Alex Smith, he's yet to produce a win in his three games as starting QB for the 49ers. The ratio of 6 TD passes to 5 INTs doesn't help his karma either. The Bears seem to be on the improve and Jay Cutler can thread a ball through a needle. They should win this one and create some separation between themselves and the "maybe's" out there.

PREDICTION: Bears 24 49ers 17

Sunday, Nov. 15

Atlanta (-1 1/2, 43 1/2) at Carolina, 1:00 pm - The amazing resurgence of the Carolina Panthers - 3-2 after an 0-3 start - has been primarily due to the lack of quality in their opponents and Jake Delhomme not throwing many INTs. The panthers are a tough team to figure, however. A week after losing at home to Buffalo, they go out and win at Arizona. The difference was three picks against the Bills and none against Arizona.

So, which Jake Delhomme will show up on Sunday? Probably the one that is fairly accurate and throws less than 2 picks, since the Falcons are near the bottom with just 7 interceptions. Atlanta is, however, adept at forcing fumbles, with 11 this season, tied for second behind the Giants' 14. Since the Panthers like to run the ball, they may cough it up a couple of times here. Atlanta also hold significant statistical advantage on both sides of the ball, so it makes one wonder why the oddsmakers are dithering over 1/2 points in the lines. The Falcons should roll here, as they did in their week 2, 28-20 win.

PREDICTION: Falcons 24 Panthers 18

Tampa Bay at Miami (-10, 44), 1:00 pm - The Dolphins get back home a little bit bruised after their 10-point loss at New England, though still in the hunt for a playoff spot. The trouble is that they probably aren't going to rally much from 3-5, considering the games ahead. Now, they should win this one, but they're really catching the Bucs at the wrong moment in team history. Tampa just knocked off Green bay last week with their new starting QB, rookie Josh Freeman, leading the way.

For the Buccaneers, the win was essential, as the season was quickly slipping away after 7 straight losses. The 38 points the Bucs pasted on the Packers is also significant, it was the most points scored by Tampa since week 11 of last season. Miami has a better defense than Green Bay, but the trip to South Florida is a short one and the Bucs will keep this one close. Take the points and ride the pirate ship.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 27 Buccaneers 21

Detroit at Minnesota (-17, 47), 1:00 pm - There are usually a couple of blowouts every week, and with the Vikings coming off their bye week, this game qualifies as a potential masher. The statistical advantage alone is enough to suggest a score of 31-14, which just happens to correspond to the line. It should actually be worse than that, especially considering the way rookie QB Matthew Stafford has been treated by the rest of the league. The Vikes aren't going to give up many points here.

PREDICTION: Vikings 44 Lions 13

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Jacksonville at NY Jets (-7, 40 1/2), 1:00 pm - The garbage game of the week, pitting two nothing teams - both 4-4 - against each other for what? One week bragging rights. "Look at us, we're playoff contenders." How the Jets can be 7-point favorites against anyone except the worst teams in the league - and they were 10-pont favorites against the Bills and LOST that game - is an open question. They're not good enough to win this by more than 4, and they might even lose at home. Look for the Jags to pick off Sanchez for at least one score.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 24 Jets 16

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7, 41 1/2), 1:00 pm - Pittsburgh looked really good against the offensively-challenged Broncos last week, but Steeler nation is in for a shock this time around. The Bengals aren't backing off from anybody, and have already notched one win over the Steelers this season. Seven points is too much for the reigning champions to be giving here; Vegas is begging you to suckers to lay it all on the Steelers so they can take your money. DON'T DO IT! The Bengals are good enough to win this division and even if they don't win this game, it's very likely to be very close.

PREDICTION: Bengals 21 Steelers 19

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New Orleans (-14, 50) at St. Louis, 1:00 pm - The Saints have won 8 straight, but haven't covered the line in two weeks. Somehow, one gets the impression that they're about to break out for a huge win, and, playing in a dome has to help. The Rams are about as careless on pass defense as any team in the league (238 pass yards allowed per game), plus, they are the lowest scoring team at 9.6 ppg. Of course, the Saints are the highest scoring team in the NFL, racking up 37.9 ppg. Right there is a 28-point differential, and in case you need convincing that this is the best play of the week, consider the Saints' D leads the league in interceptions, with 16, 5 of which have been returned for touchdowns. Ouch!

PREDICTION: Saints 45 Rams 7

Buffalo at Tennessee (-7, 44), 1:00 pm - Buffalo was great last week, taking a bye to try to figure out where they're going at 3-5 and down at the bottom of the AFC East. Buffalo has a pretty good defense, about mid-pack, but their offense is ranked 28th in the league at 15.4 points per game. And now, there's a QB controversy brewing. Trent Edwards hasn't been very good, but his back-up, Ryan Fitzpatrick, has started and produced one win in two tries. plus, he guided the Bills to the win over the Jets in which Edwards was injured. Edwards gets the start this week, though he's 1-4 as the starter this season. He'll likely be without the services of Terrell Owens, which won't matter much, as Edwards seldom threw to the star wideout.

Tennessee is under no pretenses about their season - it's a lost cause, but they can build for next year with Vince Young back as the starter and two straight wins under their belts. On the outside chance that they win out, the Titans would finish 10-6, though nobody is calling for that. In any case, they can clearly see the road ahead and the rest of the league should watch out because they aren't quite as bad as their record would indicate. They are, in fact, far superior to Buffalo, and should crush the Bills.

PREDICTION: Titans 31 Bills 7

Denver (-3 1/2, 37) at Washington, 1:00 pm - The Broncos, after peeling off 6 straight wins to open the season, are now reeling under the weight of two consecutive lopsided losses. At first glance, one might say it's a good thing they're playing the Redskins this week, but, after looking over their offensive stats for the past two games, and considering the Redskins' penchant for defense, this game is going to be a tough one for the Broncos to win.

Washington is allowing just 286.3 yards per game, 6th-best in the league. They are the #1 pass defense in the NFL, at 159.9 yards allowed per game. Noting that the Broncos like to throw short passes and can't run the ball, this looks pretty bad for Denver, which has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season.

Here's another interesting stat: the 'Skins offense possesses the ball 2 fewer minutes than the Broncos', and score only 5 fewer points, plus, the Redskins only wins (2) have come at home. Denver's offense has found the end zone just once in the past two weeks. Take those points because the Broncos come in here favored on reputation, not facts.

PREDICTION: Redskins 17 Broncos 10

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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