NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 11 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 11 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 11 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 19-23

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, Nov. 19

Miami at Carolina (-3, 42 1/2), 8:20 pm - With Ronnie Brown out for the season, joining QB Chad Pennington, the Dolphins could easily just pack it in and mail in the remainder of the season. However, when Pennington went down, Chad Henne stepped in and kept the Dolphins going, winning 4 of 6. Now that Brown is gone, the wildcat doesn't necessarily go with him. Pat White, who set numerous records at West Virginia running a spread offense, should step up here.

Carolina, like Miami, at 4-5, is still considering the playoffs a possibility, especially after upsetting Atlanta last week. Jake Delhomme hasn't thrown an interception in 3 games, and with him playing well, the Panthers can hang with just about any NFL team. Tough call, but Miami's defense is solid against the run, putting more of a load on Delhomme. Miami should rally around their injured players and get to .500.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 31 Panthers 21

Sunday, Nov. 22

Indianapolis (-1, 44) at Baltimore, 1:00 pm - The Colts have a double-barrel advantage statistically here. They lead the league in points allowed at 15.8 per game and are 4th in scoring at 28 ppg. The Ravens check in at 17.1 and 24.7. As much as the Ravens like playing at home, where they are 3-1, this is a really tough spot, because they are overall 5-4 and trail both the Bengals and Steelers in the division.

Making matters worse is that the Colts have won the last 4 meetings - three of them in Baltimore - and the Raven defense is not getting any younger. Until the Colts lose, which could happen any week, they are still the pick. Besides, despite winning, they haven't covered the line in 3 weeks. They're due.

PREDICTION: Colts 20 Ravens 13

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Washington at Dallas (-11, 41 1/2), 1:00 pm - The Cowboys didn't look very solid or structured on offense last week at Green Bay. They seem content to keep giving the ball to Marian Barber, even though he's been running with much less authority than last season and despite the fact that they have two capable backs - Tashard Choice and Felix Jones - backing him up.

Against Green Bay, QB Tony Romo was pressured repeatedly, forcing him into a number of errors. Roy Williams remains a problem as well, fumbling once when he did get the ball and dropping another on a key third down. Williams' mistakes came at key moments in the game and cost Dallas dearly.

A win here by Washington would actually give them some hope in the NFC East. They'd be 4-6, with Dallas 6-4. New York and Philly have problems of their own and the Redskins still have to play each of their division rivals once more, so this actually becomes a must-win for them. Washington's season may have been saved by their unusual fake punt-TD last week, but the offense was on the money in the second half against Denver, with Jason Campbell hitting 9-of-9 after the break.

Dallas better be on notice that the Redskins come looking for live scalps. Washington won in Dallas last season, 26-24, so it's not like the upset can't occur.

PREDICTION: Redskins 27 Cowboys 23

Cleveland at Detroit (-3 1/2, 38), 1:00 pm - Well, this may qualify as the worst game of the season, though they'll have to go some to top the last Monday nighter in which the Browns stumbled to a 16-0 loss to the Ravens. As inept as the Lions are, the Browns are moreso. Cleveland has scored just 78 points this season, which is even less than the Raiders (88). As absurd as it sounds, the Lions have scored almost twice as many points (143) as the Browns. Cleveland has put up just 7 TDs and 10 field goals. They're so bad, kicker Phil Dawson missed the extra point on the last TD they scored, two weeks ago against the Bears.

Even with Brady Quinn at QB, the Browns are a mistake waiting to happen, but could Detroit actually enter this game overconfident? The Browns' one win came in a 6-3 snooze-fest in Buffalo, so Detroit is the right kind of team for them to beat - lousy.

PREDICTION: Browns 17 Lions 13

San Francisco at Green Bay (-6 1/2, 42), 1:00 pm - Outstanding match-up pitting two potential playoff teams at one of the NFL's best venues. The packers are fresh off a thrashing of not-so-mighty Dallas, while the 49ers continue their quest for respectability, ending a 4-game skid with a Thursday night defensive 10-6 score over the Bears, in which they picked off Chicago QB Jay Cutler 5 times. Those picks were critical because the 49ers only had 216 yard of offense in the game and just 12 first downs. They'll have to improve upon those numbers to stay in the game against the Packers.

A 49er win would put both of these teams at 5-5 and further cloud the NFC playoff picture.By Tuesday morning, there could be 7 teams which are not division-leaders at either 6-4 or 5-5. That's a crowded field.

Stats-wise, the Packers have the edge on offense, by about 90 yards and 5 points per game. The two are just about dead even defensively. Give San Fran a bit of an edge with the extra three days of rest/practice to get ready for this and you have your answer. Even if the 49ers don't win, they should keep the Packers close.

PREDICTION: 49ers 21 Packers 20

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Buffalo at Jacksonville (-9, 42), 1:00 pm - The Bills fired Dick Jauron and replaced him with interim head coach Perry Fewell, about 7 weeks too late. Fewell was the Bills' defensive coordinator, and he's done well in that department. How he plans to fix the offense, which is where the real problems lie, is another matter. He'll start Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, but getting Terrell Owens motivated won't be easy. Buffalo has the 4th-worst passing offense in the league and their 14.4 first downs per game is the 3rd-worst in the league. Playing on the road will probably help. At least they won't be booed. At 3-6, the Bills look like a team already looking ahead to 2010. Oddly enough, this will be their 6th road game in 2008 (they're 2-3 away from home), so with only 2 more trips on the agenda, maybe they'll begin to put things together.

As far as this game is concerned, they're about to be splattered all over the field by the Jags, who have upped their game and are 5-4, with consecutive wins over KC and the Jets.

The Bills have already lost two straight to AFC South teams. Houston busted them, 31-10, and the Titans crushed them in the 4th quarter, winning 41-17. This is also their second straight road game.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 30 Bills 13

Pittsburgh (-10, 40) at Kansas City, 1:00 pm - The Chiefs haven't even come close to respectability this season, but now that they've rid themselves of Larry Johnson, perhaps they'll begin to improve. Unfortunately, improving against the Steelers isn't going to help much. Even without Troy Polamalu - who isn't likely to play after re-injuring his left knee - the Steelers have a big edge here on both sides of the ball, especially on offense.

Pittsburgh will have to shake off their second loss to Cincinnati this season and get on with the task at hand, and they're an experienced enough bunch to do so. KC, on the other hand, won for just the second time this year, beating Oakland on the road, 16-10. That's not saying much, and the Chiefs haven't won at home this season (0-4). The Steelers are 2-2 on the road.

PREDICTION: Steelers 26 Chiefs 10

Seattle at Minnesota (-11, 46), 1:00 pm - Seattle is a tough team to figure, but the Vikings are not. Minnesota just keeps rolling along, and they are especially tough in the dome. The Seahawks are facing one of the best teams in the league, and, after blowing a 14-0 lead at Arizona last week, appear to be on the verge of collapse. At 3-6, the Seahawks are headed back into the NFC West cellar along with the Rams. Besides St. Louis, the Seahawks have only beaten Detroit and Jacksonville and all three wins were at home. Winning a game on the road, against a sure playoff team that is red hot, just doesn't seem to be in the cards.

PREDICTION: Vikings 35 Seahawks 13

Atlanta at NY Giants (-6 1/2, 46 1/2), 1:00 pm - Why the Giants are nearly a TD fav is one of the great mysteries of the week. OK, Atlanta has probably lost Michael Turner for this game, but they've won the last 5 times they've met the Giants at the Meadowlands.

New York has lost four straight and not looked well doing so, though their last loss - to San Diego - was on a final seconds drive. Still, if the defense couldn't stop Philip Rivers at the end of the game, could Matt Ryan find similar success? The Falcons need a win after being stunned last week, 28-19, by Carolina. Ryan tossed a pair of INTs in that game, while the Panthers played error-free.

The Giants come off a bye week and were given extra rest by head coach Tom Coughlin. That still doesn't fix the problems New York has had in their running game, passing attack or the secondary. The Giants are a play or two away from implosion, and Atlanta can't afford another loss. Something has to give, so the points look like nice insurance.

PREDICTION: Falcons 23 Giants 20

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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