NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 12 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 12 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 12 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 26-30

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, Nov. 26

Green Bay (-11, 47 1/2) at Detroit, 12:30 pm - The Packers are probably good enough to beat Detroit indoors, since they've already shut them out on natural grass in Green bay, 26-0. However, Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson both missed that game, and even backup QB Daunte Culpepper only lasted until the third quarter, so having the full complement of players healthy should work in the Lions' favor. Stafford is slated to start; Johnson is listed as probable.

Being that this game is to be played at home, one would expect the score to be closer as well, but the Lions and Packers are two different teams. The Packers are seeking a return to the playoffs, while the Lions are just seeking wins. Detroit has only lost one home game by more than 8 points, and that was in Week 2, when they dropped a 27-13 decision to the Vikings. A win would even their home record at 3-3. The Packers are 2-2 on the road and lost their last away game at Tampa Bay, 38-28.

Add to the mix the talk about taking the traditional Thanksgiving game away from the Lions, and you have reason to believe that Detroit will come out flying and maybe pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Packers 24 Lions 20

Oakland at Dallas (-14, 40), 4:15 pm - Can we really trust the Cowboys to beat anyone by 14 points? Especially after just slipping past the Redskins last week, 7-6, nothing about the Cowboys is currently convincing that they can continue to lead the NFC East. They are playing one of the real patsies in the league, however, no matter how you want to spin Oakland's wins over Philadelphia, Kansas City and Cincinnati. The Raiders might be a better team with Bruce Gradkowski at QB, but it will take more than one win to convince anyone.

The Raiders haven't beaten anybody except KC on the road, and last week's win came at home, after a bye and a home game. Playing in Dallas will be a different, out-of-conference experience. The Raiders are among the league's worst at stopping the run, and if that's what Dallas has a mind to do, they should be able to do it at will. Just a hunch that people will look at last week's scores and wrongly conclude that the 14 points are worth taking.

PREDICTION: Cowboys 34 Raiders 14

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N.Y. Giants (-7, 42) at Denver, 8:20 pm - Here are two teams which both started out hot and cooled off just as quickly. The Giants went 5-0, and then 0-4. They won last week in overtime against Atlanta and are now in a position to challenge for their division lead. The Broncos started out 6-0 and have dropped their last four. Denver has not looked good in any of their last four, losing by an average margin of 20 points. The trouble for Denver is that they simply do not have a vertical passing game, so opposing defenses can roll up their corners and keep their safties close to the line of scrimmage, really squeezing the Bronco offense. In turn, that puts more pressure of the defense, as they have to remain on the field longer.

The Giants at least were competitive during their losing streak, but they still have a long way to go before being a top team. The defense is getting healthier, however, and the Giants should get back to running the football with big Brandon Jacobs.

PREDICTION: Giants 24 Broncos 10

Sunday, Nov. 29

Tampa Bay at Atlanta (-12 1/2, 46), 1:00 pm - The line on this one has moved all over the map, from 11 1/2 to 13, and it may matter because Tampa is just competitive enough to hang in against the Falcons. Last season, with the Falcons headed to the playoffs, the Buccaneers stormed Atlanta and held them to 13 points in a 13-10 loss, but a win for dogs players.

This is the first meeting of 2009 for these two NFC South foes, but it's clear that Atlanta is the better team and also in need of a win after losing in OT to the Giants last week. Tampa's lost all four road games this season, while Atlanta has won all four of their home games, just not by huge margins. This one should be no different, with the Bucs maybe getting a late, meaningless score to cover the line and ruin many parlays.

PREDICTION: Falcons 27 Buccaneers 17

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Miami (-3, 39) at Buffalo, 1:00 pm - The Bills still can't win even when TO goes for a buck 90 and change against the Jags, so how can they be expected to compete against possibly the most motivated team in the league? The 5-5 Dolphins find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt, though they are currently behind three 6-4 AFC teams and on the outside looking in. They do have dates with two of those 6-4 teams - Pittsburgh and Jacksonville - down the road, but in order to make those games meaningful, they must win this one, and they will.

Buffalo's defense deserves a great deal of credit for not completely folding up their tents in a very tough situation, but one wonders when they will collapse. Miami already mauled these guys, 38-10, in October, and there's no reason to believe they can't do it again. It's been warm in the Northeast this fall, so weather should not be a factor.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 33 Bills 21

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-14, 39), 1:00 pm - Should the Bengals be worried after their unsightly loss in Oakland last week? Probably not, since they've already beaten Pittsburgh and Baltimore twice each this season and their next two games are against these Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions (both at home).

Realistically, the only thing the Bengals should be concerned about is becoming either overconfident or complacent. Following the Detroit game, they have back-to-back roadies at Minny and San Diego, but then finish against KC and at the Jets. The Bengals should waltz into the playoffs as either the 3rd or 4th seed, no problem. Getting to a #2 seed and a bye week is a matter out of their hands, though they can make it easier by continuing to win. The message from last week came through loud and clear: FOCUS. The Bengals should dominate this game.

PREDICTION: Bengals 38 Browns 10

Indianapolis (-3 1/2, 48) at Houston, 1:00 pm - Houston's hopes for a playoff spot were badly damaged by the Titans on Monday night and now they must contend with the 10-0 Colts. The one advantage is that they have them in their own crib, but they're just 2-3 at home this season. Houston lost at Indy, 20-17, just 3 weeks ago, when their place-kicker, Kris Brown, missed a 42-yard field goal as time expired.

There's no guarantee that having made the kick would have produced a win, but at least they would have gone into overtime. The same thing happened Monday night, when Brown's 49-yard attempt sailed to the right. Same score, too, 20-17.

The Texans deserve a better fate, and they will be all out to win this game. Of course, they're capable, as they've done it before, and Indy will eventually lose. Give Houston the nod for hanging tough.

PREDICTION: Texans 21 Colts 20

Carolina at NY Jets (-3, 41 1/2), 1:00 pm - If Jets' QB Mark Sanchez hadn't tried to force the ball into his receivers against the impossible-to-crack New England secondary last week, the Jets could have covered the 10 1/2-point line. Instead, the game was essentially handed to the Patriots by the rookie, as he tossed 4 picks. With that effort, Sanchez moved past another rookie, Matthew Stafford, into second place on the picks list with 16, just 2 behind the Bears' Jay Cutler.

That's not where the Jets envisioned their rookie superstar to be at this point in the season, but, maybe they should have. The NFL is especially hard on rookie QBs.

This one may come down to which QB throws the least number of picks. With both teams at 4-6, winning is imperative. The Jets have an arguably better secondary and Ryan has probably gotten the message through to Sanchez. Jets win a homer.

PREDICTION: Jets 22 Panthers 13

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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