NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 13 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 13 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 13 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | December 3-7

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, Dec. 3

NY Jets (-3, 37) vs. Buffalo at Toronto, 8:20 pm - The Bills are sporting a new look on offense since letting go of failed head coach Dick Jauron and replacing him with defensive coordinator Perry Fewell. With the defense playing well all season, Fewell made some changes to the offense which produced a close loss at Jacksonville in his first game as head coach and a triumphant win over arch-rival Miami last week. All Fewell did was replace starting QB Trent Edwards with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and let the young arm get the ball in the hands of playmakers Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. Edwards would not throw deep or into coverage, but Fitzpatrick looks like the second coming of Sonny Jurgenson, a little floppy at times, but fearless in and out of the pocket.

Buffalo already has a win in hand over the Jets and a win in Toronto would even the two teams at 5-7. And while the Bills are currently surging with confidence, the Jets, after a 3-0 start, have dropped 6 of their last 8. New York's offense is suffering through the throes of having a rookie at QB. Mark Sanchez has been sacked 20 times and tossed 17 interceptions, and you can bet the Bills are drooling over the prospect of facing him again. The last time, they sacked him twice and picked him off five times. If that happens again, the score will be much worse than the 16-13 final from their first meeting. Hard to believe the Jets are favored.

PREDICTION: Bills 31 Jets 17

Sunday, Dec. 6

Philadelphia (-5, 44) at Atlanta, 1:00 pm - The Falcons will be without QB Matt Ryan for another week (turf toe), though his replacement, Chris Redman, did more than a capable job last week when he replaced him in the first half and led the Falcons to a 20-17 win over Tampa Bay. Redman gets the start again this week, though he'll be without the services of running back Michael Turner. The Eagles, at 7-4, have the inside track on a wild card spot, and a win here would put Atlanta (6-5) even further behind.

Philly will be without RB Brian Westbrook for the remainder of the season it seems, which does hamper their rushing attack and puts more pressure on Donovan McNabb to deliver. The Eagles have loads of talent on offense, but getting them the ball has been the issue. Since Westbrook's injury, the Eagles are 2-2, but their wins have been only by 3 and 4 points. Atlanta is 5-0 at home, and there's additional motivation to win with the return - in a Philly uniform - of Michael Vick. This one looks like it will come down to a late score for the win.

PREDICTION: Falcons 27 Eagles 26

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-6, 40 1/2), 1:00 pm - El stinko game of the week. even though Tampa Bay seems to be resurgent, they are still only 1-10. The Panthers aren't going anywhere this season, at 4-7, but they beat the Bucs back in Week 6, 28-21. This is a different Tampa team, however, having lost three straight, the two road losses were close calls, losing at Miami by 2 points and at Atlanta by 3 last week. Sandwiched in between those two was a home slaughter at the hands of the Saints, but that was expected. It's a bad game, but, if you must, take the points.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 17 Panthers 13

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St. Louis at Chicago (-9, 41), 1:00 pm - Of all the teams in the league, the most overrated has to be the Bears. They are, on any given Sunday, capable of beating some of the worst teams in the league, and falling apart against the best, as evidenced at Minnesota last week. Now 4-7, the dreams of salvation with Jay Cutler at QB are all but over, as is the Bears' season. At some point, Chicago will realize that Lovie Smith is not a very good coach and fans will be calling for his head, possibly after this game. The Bears have lost four straight; the Rams, 3 in a row. Something has to give, and it's likely to be the Chicago offense, which can't run the ball, and must rely too heavily on Cutler, who leads the league with 20 INTs. He'll make the Rams defense look good, which is a pretty neat trick.

PREDICTION: Rams 24 Bears 10

Detroit at Cincinnati (-13, 42), 1:00 pm - The problem facing the Bengals these days is keeping motivated until the playoffs. They have a pretty firm grip on the AFC North, with a 2-game lead on both the Steelers and Ravens, but there are still five games to play. Obviously, this is one they should win, especially with back-to-back games against the Vikings and Chargers to follow. If the Bengals play the kind of defense of which they are capable - currently tops in the league, at 15.8 points per game - this should be no contest. Considering that the Lions sport the league's worst defense and average only 17.5 points per outing, this could become a very one-sided affair.

PREDICTION: Bengals 41 Lions 21

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New England (-5 1/2, 46 1/2) at Miami, 1:00 pm - After that loss to the Bills last week, if would appear the Dolphins are slowly swimming out to sea, preparing to regroup for next season. But, the Patriots didn't look very high and mighty last week in New Orleans, and the Miami brain trust may have seen some defensive looks that they can exploit. The fish are just 2 games behind New England in the division, and a win would put them at 6-6 and the Pats at 7-5, which would give Miami some hope for the playoffs.

The upside for Miami is that all 4 New England losses have occurred on the road. Could it be that the Pats just don't travel well? Maybe so, plus, the Dolphins are 3-2 at home, with their only losses to New Orleans and Indy, two teams that also beat New England. Getting five points at home may be worth a shot if you believe the Patriots are past their prime.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 27 Patriots 24

Houston at Jacksonville (even, 46 1/2), 1:00 pm - Houston has had their chances at the Colts, but failed twice this season and now Indy has clinched the division, thanks to the Texans' loss to them and the Jags being beaten up at San Francisco last week. At 6-5, Jacksonville has a one game edge over the Texans and Titans in the division, but the best outcome would be a wild card for one or more of the three.

This logjam creates a must-win condition for both the Jags and the Texans, and while many believe that Houston is the second best team in this division, the Jags already have a win over them - week 3, 31-24 - and can sweep with a home job here. The Jags are 4-1 at home, with a 4-game win streak on their turf. Houston seems to create ways to lose, now having dropped three straight. Jacksonville can't stop the pass; Houston can't stop the run, which is why this game is even. However, Matt Schaub will have all day in the pocket to find receivers as Jacksonville has no pass rush of which to speak. Their 10 sacks are the league's low.

PREDICTION: Texans 38 Jaguars 24

Denver (-4 1/2, 38) at Kansas City, 1:00 pm - This game is trickier than it appears. Sure, the Broncos beat the Giants to a pulp on Thanksgiving and have had extra time off for this one, but beating the Giants is no big deal. New York has lost five of their last six games. And while the Kansas City defense may not be very solid, the Broncos haven't been exactly stopping anyone recently. Prior to their win over New York, they allowed 30, 28, 27 and 32 points during their own four-game swoon.

KC was swallowed whole by the Chargers last week, but that came as no surprise. San Diego may be the most balanced team in the AFC. Prior to being swamped in San Diego, the Chiefs won two straight, which has to be viewed as a very positive development. They are also at home and getting points, two more plusses. This being the first meeting of these divisional opponents this season, the Chiefs can make a statement here by keeping the Denver offense to short passes and maybe creating some turnovers. The big stat here is the offensive comparison. Denver scores at 17.8 per game; KC, 16.6. Not that much of a difference.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 19 Broncos 13

Oakland at Pittsburgh (-14, 46 1/2), 1:00 pm - Even with Ben Roethlisberger back behind center, the Steelers are obviously not the same team as least season's Super Bowl champs. The loss of Troy Polamalu in the secondary has been huge. Oakland's ability to exploit the absence of Pittsburgh's All-Pro safety, however, is questionable. The Raiders have had trouble moving the ball at all, though finally ditching JaMarcus Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski was the right move.

The issue here is whether the Steelers can put away the Raiders, something they haven't been able to do late in games all season. The largest margin of victory for Pittsburgh this season has been 13 points, in a win over the Browns, when they were favored by - you guessed it - 14. Pittsburgh really needs a win, since they've lost three straight, but the feeling is that the Raiders will look at old tapes from the 70s for inspiration and come out hitting. Pitt should emerge victorious, but badly bruised and not by much.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24 Raiders 17

Tennessee at Indianapolis (-6 1/2, 47), 1:00 pm - The Colts are on the verge of NFL immortality. With a win here, they would match the New England Patriots consecutive regular season win streak of 21. Interestingly, the last time they tasted defeat was October 27, 2008, when they lost to Tennessee in Nashville, 31-21.

So, despite Indy having already clinched the division with an 11-0 record, this game has plenty of meaning. Besides the obvious, a loss to the Titans, winners of five straight themselves, could set up a meeting of the two in the playoffs, something the Colts would surely like to avoid. The Titans have been on fire ever since Vince Young returned as the starting QB, and Indy hasn't exactly been bowling over opponents. In the four games prior to last week's 35-27 win over Houston (a game in which they were losing, 17-0), their winning margins were 4, 3, 1 and 2 points.

For the Titans, this is probably the most important game of the season. It would get them back to 6-6, with a legitimate shot at making the playoffs after an 0-6 beginning. The way it sets up, the team with the ball in its hands last should emerge with the win, and whether it's Indy or Tennessee, the generous point line says stick with the Titans.

PREDICTION: Titans 33 Colts 31

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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