NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 15 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 15 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 15 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | December 17-21

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, Dec. 17

Indianapolis (-3, 42) at Jacksonville, 8:20 pm - The Colts have been winning by narrow margins, or late, or both, coming from behind in a good number of games this season, but they remain the only team in the AFC with a perfect record and now an NFL record 22 straight regular season wins. They've clinched home fi8eld for the duration of the playoffs and face a perennial nemesis in Jacksonville, which has a legitimate shot at reaching the playoffs as a wild card.

The Colts will play their starters until they lose a game, which may be some time next season, because they play the Jets and Bills in the next two weeks. A win here virtually ensures a 16-0 season. Jacksonville knows the Colts well and played them tough in Week 1, losing a 14-12 decision. This could be a close call, though the Colts will probably find a way to get the job done by a touchdown or more.

PREDICTION: Colts 24 Jaguars 13

Saturday, Dec. 19

Dallas at New Orleans (-7 1/2, 53), 8:20 pm - With their season on the line, the Cowboys have a very tough task against the unbeaten Saints. Besides the obvious threat of Drew Brees stroking through the Dallas defense for any number of big plays, the Cowboy offense is in a definite funk. Take away the late TD last week against the Chargers' prevent defense, and the Pokes look pretty pokey. The truth is that the Cowboys have three underutilized backs and a QB-receiver corps that just can't get the job done. Yes, Tony Dorsett is correct: Tony Romo has accomplished nothing yet. He should go down in Dallas football history as the most overhyped player since Thomas (Hollywood) Henderson. While Henderson's habit was cocaine, Romo seems to have a gambling (or maybe girl) problem as he seems to spend more time in Las Vegas than in Cowboys practices.

At issue is whether the Saints, who have already clinched their division will keep playing hard. Since they can clinch at least a tie for home field advantage through the playoffs with a win here (Minnesota is 11-2 and doesn't play until Sunday night), they will have all of their starters in place and mop up with Dallas.

PREDICTION: Saints 34 Cowboys 17

Sunday, Dec. 20

Chicago at Baltimore (-10 1/2, 40 1/2), 1:00 pm - A match-up of teams which have lost momentum at mid-season, though the Bears seem to have almost no mojo left whatsoever. The Ravens have large statistical edges on both sides of the ball, but the Bears will be playing with absolutely nothing to lose and reputation to gain.

Despite the apparent lack of direction in game planning and overall play fostered by coach Lovie Smith, this could be his final game guiding the Bears if they fail badly. The Ravens, despite appearances to the contrary, aren't that much better than the Bears and may have a tougher task than expected. If any defense should pose problems for interception-prone Jay Cutler (a complete bust) it's the Ravens, but their offensive missteps may limit the scoring off turnovers. Look for a sloppy game and possible upset.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23 Bears 20

New England (-7, 40) at Buffalo, 1:00 pm - Truth is, the Bills should have beaten the Patriots in Week 1, and blew it. Now, they get a chance to right that wrong under a new head coach with a new QB and maybe even a new mental attitude. In their past four games, the Bills have a 2-2 record, and the two losses were a 3-pointer at Jacksonville and a six-point loss to the Jets in Toronto, so they've been competitive.

The Pats have exactly the same record in their last four, including a slaughter at the hands of the Saints and a blown game at home to Miami. Last week's comeback win over the Panthers was all the more remarkable for the fact that the Patriots turned the ball over three times compared to none for Carolina. In the Bills, they face a similar situation with a relatively untested QB in Ryan Fitzpatrick, but a better secondary and a division rival with nothing better to do than take it to the team that's pounded them for the better part of the past 5 seasons.

If you're looking for ugly, this is it. Buffalo will pull out all the stops to win one at home over their main rival in the division.

PREDICTION: Bills 20 Patriots 16

Arizona (-12, 46) at Detroit, 1:00 pm - After the debacle in San Francisco (7 turnovers), the Cardinals can still manage to clinch at least a tie for their division with a win over the Lions. If they can't get it done here, they have the Rams at home next week, but there's little doubt that the organization and players want to do a number on the Lions, who have the distinction of having the worst scoring, pass and yardage allowed defense in the league. If the Cardinals don't win this by at least three TDs, something is very wrong. They get to play on a carpet, albeit away from home, but against one of the weakest teams in the league.

PREDICTION: Cardinals 38 Lions 14

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Cleveland at Kansas City (-1 1/2, 37), 1:00 pm - This game will only determine which team gets the higher draft pick, as the Chiefs are 3-10 and the Browns 2-11. Since Cleveland has the edge already, there's no reason to believe they'll want to forsake that, so expect them to play with all the fire and passion of a wilted turnip. KC actually has an offense that clicks on occasion, though the same cannot be said of their defense. Both teams are really bad with capital Bs, so only take sides here if you are coerced by gunpoint.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 22 Browns 13

Atlanta at NY Jets (-6, 40), 1:00 pm - The Jets' defense is the real story here. They've held together all season, even when their offense was giving up the ball with alarming frequency. They picked off Josh Freeman three times in last week's 26-7 pounding of Tampa Bay and are at the top of their game, currently leading the league in points and yards allowed. With the Falcons severely banged-up, it really won't matter whether Chris Redman or Matt Ryan starts.

The Jets, likewise, have a QB decision to make. Mark Sanchez, sidelined since a Dec. 3 injury, has returned to practice, but Kellen Clemens has filled in admirably and probably would be the better starter here. It won't matter, as the Jets stifle the Falcons.

PREDICTION: Jets 27 Falcons 10

San Francisco at Philadelphia (-9, 43 1/2), 1:00 pm - The amazing Eagles have wrested control of the NFC East, for now, but have a tough finishing act with Denver coming to town next week and the season finale at Dallas. If the Eagles' players were watching Monday night as the 49ers dismantled the Cardinals, they know what awaits them this Sunday: a team with purpose and committment and a desire to make the playoffs or die trying.

If San Francisco can maintain some of the momentum from their Monday night triumph, they will be very difficult to defeat, even on the road. The Eagles, winners of four straight, may be a little overrated, as their recent wins have come against flawed opponents (Bears, Redskins, Falcons and Giants), and all but the Atlanta game were won by 7 points of less. Besides, where was the defense last week against the Giants? San Francisco should put an end to any thoughts the Eagles have of clinching their division early.

PREDICTION: 49ers 34 Eagles 28

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Houston (-12, 43 1/2) at St. Louis, 1:00 pm - Houston should slaughter the Rams here, as St. Louis has shown absolutely no interest in anything besides the top pick in the draft. They currently are tied with Tampa Bay with identical 1-11 records, and one has to think that the players are focused more on the off-season and avoiding injury than playing hard. Houston still has an outside chance at a playoff spot, but they must win out and get help from other teams, so a win here is a must, since a road trip to Miami and a home game against the Patriots lie ahead. The Texans are easily playing well enough to win this one by a wide margin. Only turnovers can stop them here.

PREDICTION: Texans 31 Rams 10

Miami at Tennessee (-4, 43), 1:00 pm - The Dolphins are 7-6, the Titans, 6-7, so this is a critical game for both teams as they each have playoffs on their minds. The Titans, in particular, have had an interesting season, losing their first six games before going 6-1. The only team to beat them over the past 7 weeks was Indianapolis, so the Titans have pulled together well behind QB Vince Young, thought he's a question mark for the start this week. The Dolphins had to replace Chad Pennington as their starting QB weeks ago, but another Chad, Henne, has hung in well as his replacement, guiding the Dolphins to a 7-3 record as a starter.

This game may well be a preview of a future AFC Championship game, as both teams are on the rise, but for now, it appears to be an all-or-nothing proposition for 2009, the loser likely out of the playoff picture. Statistically, it doesn't get much tighter, as the two share 22.5 ppg offenses and Miami has a slight edge on defense, 23.5-24.8. With those numbers so close and the game so big, take the generosity of the oddsmakers for the win.

PREDICTION: Dolphins 23 Titans 21

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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