NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 3 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 3 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 3 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | September 27-28

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Sunday, Sept. 27

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13, 38 1/2), 1:00 pm - Somebody needs to tell the Browns that this is not their bye week, because, if they continue to play the way they have been, neither the offense nor the defense will get a break here. The 2-0 Ravens are clearly the early class of the AFC, though Indianapolis must be part of that conversation.

The Ravens are on top of their game offensively, and virtually an unstoppable force, though the defense still looks a little ragged around the edges, especially in the secondary. The good news is that the Ravens are the #1 rushing defense in the league, allowing a ridiculous 41 yards per game.

If Brady Quinn thinks he's had it rough the first two weeks, just wait until he has to throw on third and long repeatedly here. So far, he's tossed two INTs. That number is likely to double this week. Welcome to the NFL, Brady!

PREDICTION: Ravens 34 Browns 10

Washington (-6, 38 1/2) at Detroit, 1:00 pm - We all are aware that Detroit is a very bad team, but just how good is Washington. Certainly, they're better than their 9-7 win over St. Louis would indicate, but are they capable of being upset indoors? It's a real possibility here, as the Lions are going to win a game sooner or later.

The Redskins look like just the team to provide the surprise. They have a relatively lackluster offense, actually scoring a TD less than the Lions after two games (13 vs. 20 ppg). Now, the 'Skins have played the Giants on the road and the Rams at home, and won one of those games, while the Lions have gone 0-2 against New Orleans and Minnesota. The argument is that almost any team in the league would have lost both of those games, so Detroit, even though they are last in the league in points allowed, can be given some credit, losing by 18 to New Orleans and 14 to the Vikes.

The Lions are home for the second straight week and it's also Matthew Stafford's third NFL start. Ever try something 3 times? That third time, it begins to get easier. That should be the case for Stafford. The desire for a win grows stronger evey week in Detroit and the players are probably thinking that Washington is a team they can beat. They are probably right.

One more note: Despite adding Albert Haynesworth to the d-line, Washington has recorded only 2 sacks thus far. Hey, even the Lions have three.

Detroit will win this game outright. Just remember, you saw it here first.

PREDICTION: Lions 24 Redskins 21

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Jacksonville at Houston (-4, 47), 1:00 pm - Houston's offense has done a fair Jeykl and Hyde impression over the first two weeks. In week 1 against the Jets, they were absolutely inept, but in week 2, they steamrolled past the Titans. This week, the real Houston offense - which is somewhere in between - is more than likely to show up. What has remained a constant for the Texans is their defense, which has proven, thus far, to be the most porous in the NFL, allowing an incredible 455 yards per game.

The Jags have had a rough, 2-0, start, but losing by 2 points at Indy and 2 TDs against Arizona is not really a shameful thing. Last season, the Jags lost here by 13 after beating Houston 30-27 at home. The Jaguars are a better football team than their record indicates and they really need a win, which adds up to the minor upset in Texas.

PREDICTION: Jaguars 23 Texans 17

Tennessee at NY Jets (-3, 37), 1:00 pm - Are the Jets really that good? After beating Texas in week 1, there weren't too many people who gave them a chance against the Patriots. However, I was one of the few who saw through the thin veneer of the New England mystique and called for a Jets win. And they delivered.

Now, can they do it again, against the Titans? There is a very good chance that they can. Tennessee is now 0-2, and the teams that have beaten them - Pittsburgh and Houston - are a combined 2-2, meaning that they each lost their other game. The Steelers lost to the Bears and the Texans lost to these very same Jets.

Conversely, the teams the Jets beat - New England and Houston - are also 1-1, as the Pats sucked out a win over the Bills in week 1.

While most of the headlines have focused on Jets' QB Mark Sanchez, the little-known fact is that the Jets lead the league in total defense, at 241 yards per game. (OK, Denver is second, so that stat may not mean much, though the Broncos did play the Bungles and Brownies.) The Jets go to 3-0, while the Titans fall to 0-3.

PREDICTION: Jets 20 Titans 14

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6 1/2, 39 1/2), 1:00 pm - Oh, Baby, if you like your football hard and fast, this one's for you. San Francisco has emerged, under coach Singletary, as one of the meanest, nastiest teams in the league. They are playing hard and very well at the present, so there's no reason to believe that they can't hang with the Vikings here. They snuffed Arizona in their opener and bottled up Seattle last week. With Minnesota's incomparable Adrian Peterson dinged up and a less-than-spry Brett Favre in the pocket, you can bet that Singletary will have his defense fired up for this one.

The Vikings have dusted two very ordinary foes - Cleveland and Detroit - with ease, but this one looks a lot different. It's the first big test for Favre, and he's looked just fine thus far, but the 49ers are playing excellent defense and should get to Brett a number of times as he's forced into 3rd and long situations.

On the offensive side, San Fran will take shots downfield for Isaac Bruce and TE Vernon Davis. Frank Gore will grind out 60-80 yards and keep this close until the end.

PREDICTION: 49ers 17 Vikings 16

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Atlanta at New England (-4, 47), 1:00 pm - Just from what we've seen this season, how can the Patriots be 4-point favorties? From just an observational point of view, the offense sucks, and the defense has kept them in games. Also, without the fortuitous fumble by the Bills in week 1, these Patsies would be 0-2. Now, everybody is saying that the Pats haven't lost 2 straight at home since 2003, so they should win this game. What a bunch of baloney!

Atlanta is clearly playing much better, they're 2-0 and should expose the holes in New England's reorganized defense. The Falcons simply have too many weapons with which to whip the Patriots who will be looking up at the Jets in the AFC East after this one. It won't be easy, but it will be fun... and close.

PREDICTION: Falcons 30 Patroits 27

Kansas City at Philadelphia (-8 1/2, 40 1/2), 1:00 pm - If this is really the line here, one would have to take Kansas City, only because they haven't covered the spread yet and because the Eagles are without McNabb, and will also be missing Quintin Demps on defense. Can the Chiefs actually win the game? Very possibly, because their defense is pretty good, the Eagles offense may not be clicking with Brian Kolb at QB, or Jeff Garcia, or even Michael Vick, so if the KC offense can stick it in the end zone a few times, sure, why not?

PREDICTION: Chiefs 20 Eagles 17

Green Bay (-6 1/2, 41) at St. Louis, 1:00 pm - Both teams are coming off losses, though the Packers got beat at home, by Cincinnati, which was actually expected. Well, not by the Packers, but certainly by me. The Bengals are going to be one of the most interesting stories in the league this season, but more on them vs. the Steelers later. The Packers haven't been exactly solid on either side of the ball, but they are worlds better than the Rams, who can't run or throw consistently for 4 quarters (who can?). Besides being favored on the road, and for good reason, the Packers have a bevy of fleet receivers who will run through the St. Louis secondary all afternoon.

This looks like a rout waiting to happen. It's on carpet! Do you think Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are going to catch a few passes? They both may go over 100 yards here. The Rams don't put pressure on QBs, and their secondary doesn't cover well. They have allowed 258 yards passing and 146 yards rushing per game thus far, so the Packers can choose which way they'd like to crush them.

PREDICTION: Packers 40 Rams 10

NY Giants (-6 1/2, 44 1/2) at Tampa Bay, 1:00 pm - There are quite a few road favorites this week (7 to be exact), and we know, by studying statistics, that at least four of them will not cover. The trick is to figure out which four. This isn't one of them.

The Giants are probably the best road team in the league, and this is the second of three straight away games for them. They've already beaten Dallas and they are at Kansas City next week, so it looks like they'll win them all. Are they a TD better than the Buccaneers? Try three TDs better. Tampa Bay couldn't beat Dallas at home and they didn't even come close to challenging the Bills on the road last week. They are a very bad football team which will be lucky to still be on the field in the second half against one of the best in the league. And how good is Eli Manning, anyhow?

Damn good.

PREDICTION: Giants 31 Buccaneers 10

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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