NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 4 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 4 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 4 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | October 4-5

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Sunday, Oct. 4

(Byes: Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, Philadelphia)

Detroit at Chicago (-10, 39), 1:00 pm - Can the Lions win for the second straight week? After beating the Redskins last week, anything seems possible in Detroit, even getting over on their ancient nemesis in Chicago. The Lions can draw some motivation from the fact that they almost won here last year, losing a 27-23 squeaker, and, if they believe in themselves enough, they could play well enough to win.

With Brian Urlacher and Kevin Jones on IR, the running game grounded and the Bears relying more and more on the arm of Jay Cutler, the Bears seem vulnerable to a Lion ambush. Detroit held the Redskins to just 65 yards rushing for their first win after 19 straight losses and if that kind of rush defense holds up, they may be able to make the Bears one-dimensional on offense and keep this one close.

Last week I predicted an outright Lions win and hit the nail right on the head. I'm not going to be as audacious this week, but believe that the Lions have turned the corner and will keep this one close. They may just stun the Bears, but that's asking a lot.

PREDICTION: Bears 20 Lions 16

Cincinnati (-5 1/2, 38) at Cleveland, 1:00 pm - The Browns can't actually get any worse offensively. After three games, they've managed only 29 points, better than the Rams (24), but well below average. Coach eric Mangini responded by benching Brady Quinn, who has flopped this season as the Cleveland QB, and instead will go with Derek Anderson, who at least found the end zone a few times last year.

The trouble with bringing in Anderson is that he probably won't fare much better against an improved Bengal defense, which is allowing 18.7 points per outing, but can be suspect against the pass. It's intriguing that the Bengals are such heavy favorites here in Cleveland as the two teams swapped wins on each other's turf last year. The Brownies are back at home following two road games after all, and the Bengals are coming off an emotional road win over Pittsburgh. Only because the Browns are actually going to try to save their coach's job and haven't covered the line yet this season, I'll go out on a limb and take them to pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Browns 24 Bengals 21

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Oakland at Houston (-9, 42), 1:00 pm - I just take the Raiders every week no matter who they're playing, so get used to it. Houston isn't that good, especially on defense, so the wide open attack by Oakland has a chance to do some damage here. Houston is actually allowing almost 9 more points per game than Oakland (28.7 vs. 19.0), though the Houston offense is scoring 9 more (21.7 vs. 12.0). A tie maybe?

Darren McFadden fumbled once deep in Denver territory and JaMarcus Russell was picked twice, so maybe the Raiders just have to hold onto the ball a little better. The defense is solid and will keep them in this one.

PREDICTION: Raiders 23 Texans 17

Seattle at Indianapolis (-10 1/2, 44), 1:00 pm - With Matt Hasselbeck out again this week and left tackle Walter Jones also sidelined, don't expect the Seahawks to upset the high-flying Colts, who are 3-0 this season and riding a 12-game regular-season win streak dating back to November of last season.

Coming off a convincing, 31-10, win at Arizona, the Colts are clearly the class of the AFC and there's little the Seattle defense can do to slow them down, especially since they're back home under the roof for this one.

Besides missing their QB and best blocking lineman, the Seahawks a nursing a plethora of injuries, while the Colts remain relatively healthy. Dwight Freeney and Gary Brackett are both listed as questionable for this Sunday, but even their losses won't even up the score here.

PREDICTION: Colts 34 Seahawks 20

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Tennessee (-3, 41 1/2) at Jacksonville, 1:00 pm - Well, "Remember the Titans" may be the operative term here. Last year, the Titans were undefeated through their first ten games. This year, they can't buy a win. This game also marks the 3rd road endeavor for Tennessee in just 4 weeks, and next week they host the Colts, so if the Titans are going to avoid an 0-5 start, they better win here.

Jacksonville got their first win, 31-24, at Houston last week, and their offense has scored more points in each successive game, so you could say they're clicking. Maurice Jones-Drew rang up 119 yards against the Texans, and Tennessee will have to halt the Jags' rushing game. That, the Titans can do. Teams are rushing for only 60.7 yards per game against Tennessee, second best in the league.

A tough call, and with both teams needing a win, getting points at home is a bonus in what should be a close call.

PREDICTION: Jacksonville 22 Tennessee 21

NY Giants (-9, 42) at Kansas City, 1:00 pm - Hard no to love the perfect, 3-0, Giants, especially with KC in the midst of a very tough stretch. Being at Philly last week resulted in a 34-14 loss, now the Giants, next week they host Dallas. Ouch. Since the Chiefs are 2-17 since the start of last season, guess who the pick is here. I you get this game under 13, take the G-Men.

PREDICTION: Giants 28 Chiefs 10

Baltimore at New England (-2, 44 1/2), 1:00 pm - OK, this is what it's all about. Two teams vying for their divisional titles and seeking playoff positioning in what's likely the most important game of the season to this point for each of them. The Ravens haven't lost yet and have the secondary to handle Brady and his boys, but New england is a very tough place to play and the Pats seem to be ready for any challenge.

Baltimore will get on the scoreboard, and probably get a turnover or two, but the Pats should get the win at home. New England's win last week over Atlanta, 26-10, was a portrait in domination on both sides of the ball. The Pats rolled up 445 yards of offense, most importantly, 168 of it rushing. Tough call, because the Ravens are the the real deal, but must side with the Pats here.

PREDICTION: Patriots 26 Ravens 21

Tampa Bay at Washington (-7, 37), 1:00 pm - Hey, if the Redskins can't beat the Lions and only topped the rams by 2 points at home, they probably will have trouble with just about any team, and that's Tampa Bay. They're OK on defense and getting it done somewhat on offense. This is a game the Bucs believe they can win, and that's what it's all about. The 1-2 Redskins aren't exactly panicked just yet, but they may be if they find themselves down late here. The Bucs have suffered losses to Dallas, Buffalo and the Giants, so they should find the 'Skins a little easier.

While the Bucs may not win this game, it shouldn't be lost by much.

PREDICTION: Redskins 24 Buccaneers 19

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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