NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 5 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 5 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 5 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | October 11-12

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Sunday, Oct. 11

(Byes: Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego)

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-8 1/2, 42), 1:00 pm - This is a divisional game, and these two usually play pretty close ones, though last season was something of an aberration, with Baltimore winning both meetings, 17-10 at home and 34-3 later in the season, at Cincy, as the Ravens were driving to the playoffs and the Bengals were just driving their fans nuts. With identical 3-1 records, this session appears to be a rough one on both sides of the ball. While the Ravens may boast one of the league's best defenses, the Bengals haven't backed away from any fights this season, and don't expect them to shy from their main rival in the division.

Cincinnati has already stunned Green bay and Pittsburgh this season, so a win here would not be out of the question. Here are some slightly strange stats: the Bengals are better defensively than the Ravens (19 ppg, vs. 20), but the Ravens are miles ahead on offense (31 ppg to 21).

PREDICTION: Bengals 24 Ravens 20

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6, 40 1/2), 1:00 pm - This may turn out to be the best proposition of the weekend. The Buffalo Bills were shattered last week at Miami, 38-10, and there's still no talk of firing head coach Dick Jauron (a "player's coach," meaning he's not tough enough). To make matters even worse, Terrell Ownes isn't even complaining. Very odd, indeed. Meanwhile, the Browns are losing and losing uglier every week, but they did do one good thing this week, they let go of wide receiver Braylon Edwards, trading him to the Jets for receiver Chanci Stuckey, linebacker Jason Trusnik and a couple of draft choices.

Edwards was a whiner and complainer, in addition to being a chronic pass-dropper. Good riddance. The moves should inspire team confidence. Playing against the Bills should inspire them even more, since the Bills are statistically close to Cleveland on both sides of the ball, and the Browns beat Buffalo last season, 29-27. There will also be almost as many Browns fans as Bills fans in the stands making the short ride from Cleveland.

PREDICTION: Browns 34 Bills 20

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Washington at Carolina (-3 1/2, 37 1/2), 1:00 pm - If there's a team the panthers are capable of beating, it's got to be the Redskins. How good can Washington be if they only beat the Rams by 2 points and then lost to the Lions the following week? The simple answer is "not very." Sure, they beat Tampa Bay last week, 16-13, but only after falling behind, 10-0 by half time. The best thing that happened to carolina last week is that they didn't play anyone, so they should be well rested for this "crucial" test. It's a crucial game because the Panthers are 0-3 and need to get a win soon. Their losses have been to Philadelphia, Atlanta and Dallas, so one could say they've been facing better. They're home against an inferior team. No excuses this time.

PREDICTION: Panthers 24 Redskins 14

Pittsburgh (-10 1/2, 44) at Detroit, 1:00 pm - There are six road favorites this week, similar to last week, and the key is to correctly identify which of those road favorites will not cover. Since the Steelers looked dominant against San Diego last Sunday night, they're likely to suffer something of an emotional letdown, so that opens the door for the Lions to sneak in a cover. The chance that Detroit may win this game is slim, but the Steelers have not closed out well all season, so there may be an opening late for the Lions to get one of those "meaningless" scores. We'll go out on a limb and take the Lions. Really, if all these road favorites of 10 or more could cover every week, we'd all be rich, right?

PREDICTION: Steelers 31 Lions 26

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Dallas (-8, 42 1/2) at Kansas City, 1:00 pm - If ever there was a vulnerable road favorite, it's Dallas. The Cowboys may have swagger and strut, but those elements don't win football games. Discipline and determination do, and after the Chiefs hung in and scored a pair of 4th quarter TDs against the Giants, one gets the feeling they're on the verge of turning things around. The Cowboys lost a game they could have won, had the defense played better and the offense been more efficient, but, since Dallas thrives on BS rather than reality, they'll head confidently into KC only to be met by a great deal of derision from angry fans who still support the home team and a bunch of players determined to knock them off their high pedestal.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 21 Cowboys 14

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Oakland at NY Giants (-16, 39), 1:00 pm - Eli Manning may not even play - listed as day-to-day - and the truth, as painful as this may be for Raiders' readers, is that the Giants may not need him. Backup David Carr has enough real-time experience to lead the G-Men to victory, especially since his job will mostly involve handing the ball off to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw and watching the defense defrock the impotent Oakland offense (if you can call it that).

The Giants hold such an enormous statistical edge, that it's hard to see Oakland coming close, and even though 16 or 17 points is tempting, it's still a hard numbr to cover when your team averages only 10 points per game. The Raiders face one of the best defenses in the league and the only way they win - or come close - is if the Giants turn the ball over repeatedly. That's possible, though not probable.

PREDICTION: Giants 41 Raiders 7

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-15 1/2, 43), 1:00 pm - OK, here's another enormous line that has to be covered. The Eagles have been soaring of late, even without Donovan McNabb, who returns this week, fully recovered. His record after injury is exceptional, since he's done it so many times in his career. The Bucs simply cannot match up to what Philly puts on the field, and, who knows, maybe that Vick guy might actually get some action and do some downfield damage. It would not be a surprise if the Eagles had this line covered by half time.

PREDICTION: Eagles 37 Buccaneers 17

Minnesota (-10, 41) at St. Louis, 1:00 pm - Maybe the Rams will run a more "conservative" offense amid rumors that Rush Limbaugh wants to be a part owner of the team. If that's the case, the Rams, who are dead last in the league in scoring at 6 points per game, would score none and actually hand the ball over to the Viking defenders so they could run up their own score. While conservatism has its place, it's certainly not on the field against one of the league's best teams. This is a mismatch of gigantic proportions, and even a letdown by Favre and his marauding Vikes won't prevent this from being an absolute blowout. Don't worry, the Vikings will only score in the millions, not billions, like bankers. In fact, if the Rams were to play Citigroup or AIG, the score could be even worse.

PREDICTION: Vikings 9,678,456 Rams 0

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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