NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 6 Picks early games

NFL Pro Football 2009 Week 6 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 6 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | October 18-19

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Sunday, Oct. 18

(Byes: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco)

Houston at Cincinnati (-4 1/2, 45), 1:00 pm - One has to appreciate just how improved the Bengals are this season. With Carson Palmer back full time at QB and the defense responding to the challenge of head coach Marvin Lewis, there's none of the bad behavior that plagued the team over the past few seasons. No player has been arrested or indicted and Chad Ochocinco has yet to be fined by the league. Instead of mouthing off and being disruptive, Ochocinco is once again proving to be one of the top tier receivers in the league.

Last season the defense was ranked 19th, allowing 22.75 ppg. This year, they're up to #9, giving up just 18 ppg. The offensive turnaround has been impressive as well, from 12.75 ppg in 2009, to 20.2 this season. Overall, there's been a swing of roughly 14 points, meaning losses are becoming wins, so, instead of losing their first 8 games - as they did in 2008 - the Bengals are 4-1, including important wins over division opponents, Pittsburgh and Baltimore. They are in first place in the AFC North.

Houston's stats have been static as compared to last season. They thro the ball around a lot, give up as many points as they score and are generally mediocre. Steve Slaton (231 yards on 72 carries) is a liability at running back. He's not powerful enough, fast enough and misses assignments repeatedly. All indications are for the Bengals to pound the Texans by 10 points or more.

PREDICTION: Bengals 31 Texans 16

Detroit (-14, 48) at Green Bay, 1:00 pm - The Packers have had an extra week to lick their wounds after the Monday night loss at Minnesota. They weren't beaten too badly (30-23), but still find themselves behind the 5-0 Vikings and the 3-1 Bears, so winning against Detroit suddenly becomes a big deal. Green Bay is certainly playing well enough to win the game. Winning by two TDs against 1-4 Detroit (2-3 ATS) is another matter.

Matthew Stafford, the rookie QB for the Lions, is still questionable for the game, though Daunte Culpepper put in a solid performance last week against the Steelers and can be counted on once again, should Stafford not be able to go.

Despite Green Bay's struggling defense (23.3 ppg), it's nothing compared to the Lions, who are allowing a league-worst 32.4 ppg. That's the key stat and ensures that the Packers will crush these guys.

PREDICTION: Packers 38 Lions 17

St. Louis at Jacksonville (-10, 42 1/2), 1:00 pm - Want to know what happened to Jacksonville last week in the their 41-0 pasting by Seattle? Try 10 first downs, 38 yards rushing and two lost fumbles. It's not that the Jags aren't good at running the football - they are - but that Seattle totally got into their playbook and stuffed them. The Rams, happy that Rush Limbaugh will not be their new owner, should be able to get a read from that game and actually put up a fair defensive effort. Even though the Rams are the worst offensive team in the league (6.8 ppg), the only game in which they covered the spread came on the road, against Washington in week 2.

The Jags are similar to the Redskins in a number of ways. Struggling offensively and defensively, they probably think they can just push the Rams around. The truth is that the Jags aren't very good and may be thinking more about their upcoming bye week (next week) than winning this game. Marc Bulger is back at QB and Steven Jackson has been running with authority. He could have a big game. The Rams have lost 14 straight games. Saying they're due for a win is an understatement.

PREDICTION: Rams 20 Jaguars 16

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Baltimore at Minnesota (-3, 43 1/2), 1:00 pm - The Ravens are reeeling after consecutive losses to New England and Cincy and now have to go on the road against a high-quality Minnesota squad. Besides the Giants-Saints tilt, this may be the best game of the weekend. If statistics mean anything, the Vikes are slightly better on both offense and defense, but not enough to convince anyone that they'll win by more than 3 points. The Ravens will try to pressure Favre, but he's proven still nimble enough to avoid most blitzes and deliver, but he hasn't faced a defense as good as Baltimore's. In fact, the best defense he's faced was San Francisco, and that game was won, 27-24, on a desperation heave with time running out.

Since the Vikings haven't shown the ability to completely shut any offense down, the Ravens stand a pretty good chance of puling off the minor upset. The road won't bother the Ravens, as they are 6-2 in road games since week 7 of last year. Losing three straight just doesn't seem to be in the cards and they are the perfect type of team to bring the Vikings back to earth.

PREDICTION: Ravens 23 Vikings 20

N.Y. Giants at New Orleans (-3, 47 1/2), 1:00 pm - Let's keep this simple. The Giants are a better football team - maybe the best in the league - than the Saints because they have such an impressive defense. It all starts with pressure on Drew Brees from the Giants' front four and linebackers and ends with Eli Manning throwing three TD passes and Brandon Jacobs dispelling the myth that the Saints are good against the run.

Besides, who have the Saints beaten? 1-4 Detroit, Philadelphia without Donovan McNabb (or Michael Vick), 1-4 Buffalo, and the now 3-2 Jets. Last we looked, the Giants were slaughtering the Raiders, 44-7 and manning didn't even play the whole first half. Say what you like about Drew Brees, but if Eli Manning isn't the best QB in the NFL, he's a close second to his older brother.

PREDICTION: Giants 27 Saints 17

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Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-14, 38), 1:00 pm - Cleveland won at Buffalo last week, 6-3, in what had to be the poorest excuse for a professional football game this season. Both the Bills and Browns are horrible, will continue to be horrible and will end the season horribly. The horror story that is Cleveland's 2009 season continues this week as the Steelers should come close to or exceed their season-high for scoring (38 points). They may even get a defensive score or two, especially with Troy Polamalu back after missing 4 games.

The Browns should match their points output from last week.

PREDICTION: Steelers 34 Browns 6

Carolina (-3, 40) at Tampa Bay, 1:00 pm - Sure enough, the Panthers had just the right amount of offense - 20 points - to beat the Redskins last week, and Jake Delhomme only tossed one ball to the wrong guys. Jake kept his streak alive, throwing at least one INT in each game this season. Against Tampa Bay, he should have no problem getting picked at least once, probably two or three times. The Bucs may not be the worst team in the league. We'll find out if Carolina really is as bad as we think when they go on the road.

PREDICTION: Buccaneers 20 Panthers 14

Kansas City at Washington (-6, 37 1/2), 1:00 pm - Excuse my ignorance, but, how, after winning 2 of their first 5 games, by 2 points over the Rams and 3 points over the Bucs, are the Redskins supposed to beat the Chiefs by 6?

Kansas City is coming off their best effort of the season, nearly knocking off the Cowboys, losing 26-20 at home. Now the Chiefs are 0-5, but 4 of those losses were to NFC East teams - Dallas, YN and Philly - and the other loss was their season opener against the Ravens, where they almost pulled off an upset before self-destructing late. It's doubtful that the Chiefs will go 0-4 against the NFC East, but very possible that the 'Skins could lose this game, and lose at home to Denver and on the road against the Raiders and Denver.

Improbable that Washington will score more than one TD here. Chiefs get off the schneid. The Redskins currently rank 5th in scoring defense, but that number was achieved against some of the worst teams in the league. Besides the Giants in their opener, they've played Carolina, Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Detroit. Your kid's high school team could put up good numbers against those squads.

PREDICTION: Chiefs 27 Redskins 13

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2009, 2010, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.

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