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NFL Pro Football 2011 Week 11 Picks

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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 11 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | November 17-20

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Thursday, Nov. 17

NY Jets (-6, 40) at Denver Broncos 8:20 pm - After being beaten badly by the Patriots at home, 37-16, the Jets have to turn around quickly and play a Thursday night game in rarified air. Plus, they face a Denver team that's turned things around with Tim Tebow at QB and have won two straight.

Here are the key stats: the Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road; Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.

So, can Tebow solve the Jets' defense, or will Jets' QB Mark Sanchez continue playing like a 5th rund rookie? Either way, it adds up to a Denver win or at least a cover.

Prediction: Broncos 17 Jets 14

Sunday, Nov. 20

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40 1/2) 1:00 pm - Due to Pittsburgh beating the Bengals last week, 24-17, the Steelers hold a 1/2 game edge in the NFC North and the winner here will be in the driver's seat for at least a wild card.

The Baltimore defense is third in both yards and points allowed, but Cincy is close behind. The Ravens have won their last five home games but are 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati.

The Bengals won both meetings in 2009, but split in 2010, with each team winning at home. The Bengals are a better team than they were last season, but beating the Ravens at home is a tough job and the Bengals aren't just there yet.

Prediction: Ravens 27 Bengals 16

Dallas Cowboys (-8 41 1/2) at Washington Redskins 1:00 pm - Hmmm, Rex Grossman is back at QB for the 'Skins, which means that head coach Mike Shanahan has just about given up on the season, along with many of the players, for sure.

Dallas is just 1-3 on the road, but 3-6 Washington appears to be folding up their tents rather early, having lost five in a row, including last week's 20-9 beating at Miami.

The Cowboys won the first meeting this season, 18-16, but that was back in September, before DeMarco Murray arrived on the scene and helped Dallas establish a strong running presence. Plus, Felix Jones returns this week for Dallas in a backup role, but he will be looking to make a positive impact.

Prediction: Cowboys 28 Redskins 10

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-1 1/2, 43) 1:00 pm - Here are two teams going in seemingly opposite directions. The Dolphins have won two straight, while the Bills have lost two straight and three of their last four, though their losses were to both New York teams and Dallas.

Miami's defense has picked it up recently, allowing just 12 points in their wins over KC and Washington.

If momentum and home field mean anything at all, the Dolphins should handle the fading Bills, who will be just 5-5 after a 4-1 start.

Prediction: Dolphins 27 Bills 24

Oakland Raiders (-1, 45) at Minnesota Vikings 1:00 pm - Over their past four games, the Vikings have had to play Chicago, plus Green Bay twice, losing all three of those games, with a 24-21 win at Carolina sandwiched in between, so their 2-7 record comes with a caveat, in addition to Christian Ponder still getting his feet wet as Minnesota's starting QB.

The 5-4 Raiders actually have carved out a one-game lead in the AFC West, and they are actually better on the road, with a 3-1 record. By comparison, the Vikings are 1-4 at home, though this should be a hard-fought, close game. Minnesota, with nothing to lose, might just slip in a home win here, but it's pretty iffy.

Prediction: Vikings 20 Raiders 16

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (even, 34 1/2) 1:00 pm - This is the unofficial toilet bowl game of the week, with both squads coming in with unimpressive 3-6 records, though the Jags have won two of their last three, while Cleveland has found creative ways to lost their last three.

Jacksonville has amped up the defense of late, but the offense has scored just 0.2 points, on average, more then the 32nd-ranked Rams, at 12.8 ppg.

With the Browns at home in what looks to be a defensive struggle, about all they need here is a little snow off Lake Erie to make this the UNDER bet of the weekend.

Cleveland is overdue for a quality effort from Colt McCoy. This could be his time.

Prediction: Browns 22 Jaguars 10

Looking for the best NFL Handicapper? Good luck. Most of them suck.

Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-7, 47) 1:00 pm - The Lions started out the season like a house afire, going 5-0 before coming down to earth and losing three of their last four.

For Carolina, just getting rookie QB Cam Newton through the season without injury will be considered a major achievement, though he's played exceptionally well.

Detroit has distinct advantages in their passing game and overall defense, and are still very much alive for the playoffs. They and the Bears and Packers could come out of this division and a convincing win should be just what the Lions need for the stretch run.

Prediction: Lions 31 Panthers 20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-14, 49) 1:00 pm - The Bucs are another team which started well but has seemingly hit the wall here in midseason. After beating the Saints to go to 4-1, they've lost three straight, including the embarrassing 37-9 loss to Houston last week, and this does not appear to be the best time to be traveling North to take on the best team in the league.

Most of Green Bay's wins have been laughers, and with a 9-0 record, surely some of the players and coaches are thinking about an undefeated season. Losing this game after their 45-7 win over Minnesota last week seems unfathomable and this could be the play of the week.

Prediction: Packers 38 Buccaneers 17

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2011, 2012, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.


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