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NFL Pro Football 2012 Week 4 Picks

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Pro Football Week 4 Picks - late games


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Fearless Rick's NFL Week 4 Picks - Early Games

Rick Gagliano | September 27 - October 1, 2012

All times Eastern - Click here for late games.

Bye: Pittsburgh Indianapolis

Thursday, September 27

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13, 43 1/2) 8:20 pm - First game of the week produces one of the largest spreads, naturally, the hopeless, 0-3 Browns are involved.

However, it should be noted that the Browns have not lost a game this season by more than 10 points (lost 24-14 to Buffalo last week) and this line is beyond that.

The Ravens are coming off a tough, 31-30, win over the Patriots on Sunday night and have a short work week at home for which to prepare. Like racehorses which exert extra energy getting to the finish line a nose or a neck in front, the usual "bounce" applies in the next outing. The Ravens may cover, but it's unlikely to be by a huge margin.

Prediction: Ravens 23 Browns 17

Sunday, September 30

New England (-4 1/2, 52) at Buffalo 1:00 pm - The Bills have been playing pretty good football, but face an uphill battle when the Patriots come to town.

At 1-2, New England trails the 2-1 Jets and Bills by a game in the division, even though their net points scored/against is +18 compared to +6 for the Jets and +8 for the Bills.

Buffalo will be without C.J. Spiller, though they should have Fred Jackson back at running back.

Buffalo won the last meeting at home, topping the Pats, 34-31, last September 25, but lost the previus four meetings in Buffalo, all by seven points or more.

Prediction: Patriots 31 Bills 21

San Diego at Kansas City (even, 45) 1:00 pm - Line could move toward favoring the Chargers or just hang around even as game time approaches, and this looks to be one of the closer calls of the week.

San Diego comes off its worst effort of the season, a 27-3 home loss to the Falcons, though that is excusable, since the Falcons are loaded and 3-0.

KC has won the last two at home vs. the Chargers, but is just 2-4 in its last six home games ATS. Straight up (SU) the Chargers are 7-2 their last nine against the Chiefs, so, considering the importance of this game for both teams and the unwavering abiity of Charger QB Philip Rivers, San Diego should pull out the win, possibly in OT.

Prediction: Chargers 20 Chiefs 17

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Minnesota at Detroit 1:00 pm - No line at this time. Check back for update.

Prediction: Vikings ??? Lions ???

Seattle (-1, 38) at St. Louis 1:00 pm - After Monday night's fiasco, the Seahawks are 2-1, but trail the Cardinals by a game in the NFC West, quickly becoming a powerhouse division.

Seattle's defense is a clear deciding factor here, allowing an average of just 13 points per outing. Also, despite the controversy surrounding their Monday night home win, they played the Packers to a standstill and had a shot at the end, despite the obvious blown call that handed them victory.

The Rams will find it difficult to move the ball at all, given Seattle's ferocity on defense. If Russell Wilson continues to excel for the Seahawks, the offense could turn this into a runaway.

Prediction: Seahawks 28 Rams 14

San Francisco (-4, 40 1/2) at NY Jets 1:00 pm - San Francisco tasted defeat for the first time this season, ambushed by the home-standing Vikings, 24-13, while the Jets survived a trip to Miami in overtime, 23-20.

New York should be noticeably upset over being a hoe underdog after back-to-back road games. The 49ers do not have the most explosive offense in the league, and despite the absence of Darrelle Revis, the Jet defense is still solid.

The Jets have struggled on offense themselves the past two games, so this develops as a pure UNDER play, with defense dominating and the Jets coming out on top. Consider the four points a bonus in what should be a close game.

Prediction: Jets 16 49ers 13

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Carolina at Atlanta (-8, 48 1/2) 1:00 pm - Undefeated Falcons look to go 4-0 against a capable Carolina squad coming off a big disappointment against the Giants.

The 1-2 Panthers are in need of a win, but need to reverse the trend by which they've been owned by the Falcons in the Georgia Dome, losing the last four straight, with no loss by fewer than eight points, interestingly, the exact line here.

With two of the more capable offenses meeting, this could turn into a track meet, with defense wearing down in the second half. In that case, take the Panthers with the points and hope for a late scoring flurry.

Prediction: Falcons 34 Panthers 31

Tennessee at Houston (-13, 45) 1:00 pm - Biggest line on the board heavily favors the 3-0 Texans, and for good reason, despite the Titans upsetting the Lions last week. Houston has won and covered every time this season, a trend to stick with until it ends.

Houston is one of the best two or three teams in the league right now and this is a divisional match-up that should go Houston's way. The Titans are 1-6 ATS their last seven, a disturbing stat that sharpies will take into account.

Prediction: Texans 27 Titans 10

All times Eastern - Click here for late games

Copyright 2012, 2013, Rick Gagliano, Downtown Magazine. All rights reserved. Downtown Magazine is located in the Uinted States of America and is not affiliated with the National Football League or the NCAA. For more information, contact us here. Use of this site is for entertainment purposes only.


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