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2006 AFC North Preview
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AFC North Preview
Rick Gagliano | 8/28/06
AFC North predicted order of finish
Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)
The Steelers will contend, but the Bengals end up on top of the surprising Ravens in this topsy-turvy division. The Bengals need QB Carson Palmer to come back quickly from last year's season ending knee injury, while the Ravens may be back in prominence with the addition of Steve McNair on a team that's needed a quality QB for almost a decade. Pittsburgh will miss not only the bus, but some other key players, plus their schedule is brutal. As for Cleveland... well, hope springs eternal.
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) - With Carson Palmer healing well (starting in the third pre-season game), the Bengals seek a repeat of their 2005 success (11-5 and the division title). All of the key players from last year's unit are returning and the addition of Sam Adams at defensive tackle and Dexter Jackson at safety will ensure that 2006 goes well.
Those additions and a productive draft should help the Bengals on defense, an area in which they were sub-par last season.
When Palmer and his offensive teammates have the ball, they can move at will against anyone (ranked 4th in scoring and 6th in total yards in 2005). The Johnson boys, running back Rudi (1458 yards) and receiver Chad (1432), should provide most of the offense and carry the Bengals to the playoffs and beyond.
Anything less than a division title and at least two playoff wins will be a failure in a town which has gone from the bottom to the top in a few short years. The Bengals have what it takes to win at least 10 or 12 games and compete for the conference championship.
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That one change should be a significant one, especially considering the wealth of talent in the receiving corps. Derreck Mason and Mark Clayton are fixtures at wide receiver, and along with All-Pro talent Todd Heap at tight end and possibly Demetrius Williams (2005 draft: 4th round, Oregon) as #3, McNair will have choices.
Jamal Lewis will need to improve his pedestrian numbers from last season because Billick also brought in Mike Anderson from Denver as a backup or potential replacement at running back.
Defensively, the Ravens may be better than ever with a healthy Ray Lewis at MLB, the addition of Trevor Pryce at DE and one of the best secondaries in the league. Baltimore ranked 3rd in yards allowed per play and 5 in total points allowed last season, no mean feat considering that the offense could not stay on the field consistently much of the season.
Considering that 4 of Baltimore's 10 losses were by 4 points or less in 2005, they were only a big play away from a wining season, if not a playoff berth. Those four close losses were all on the road and came against Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Denver, all of which, except the Browns, were playoff teams.
With so much going for them and a similar schedule, the Ravens should become the turn around story of 2006, challenging for the division title and advancing to the playoffs as a wild card.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-9) - The 2005 Steelers unlikely run of success culminated in the crowning achievement of coach Bill Cowher's career, winning the Super Bowl over the Seattle Seahawks. While the result of that final game will forever be marred by some questionable officiating, the Steelers did earn their way, winning the games they needed to get there by defeating some solid teams - Cincy, Indy and Denver - and doing it all on the road.
This season may be a bit different as the Steeler will be the hunted instead of the hunter and some key cogs will be missing. The Bus, Jerome Bettis, has been parked permanently, Antwaan Randle El went to Washington, outstanding DE Kimo von Oelhoffen went to the Jets and free safety Chris Hope signed on with Tennessee.
Under Cowher, Pittsburgh has always been a defense-first kind of team, so those losses may hurt a squad that ranked 4th in total yards allowed and 3rd in scoring defense last year. Likewise, the offense will miss the rampaging Bettis and the creativity and versatility of Randle El.
Additionally, QB Ben Roethlisberger suffered some injuries (mostly to his reputation) in an off-season motorcycle crash and this season is highly rumored to be Cowher's last. With all of the off-season activities which usually distract Super Bowl champions, there's just too much on the table to prevent some slippage in Pittsburgh this season.
The schedule also won't help the Steelers' chances. Last year, their NFC foes were from the depleted North, while this year they'll play the South - Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Carolina and New Orleans. In 2005, Pittsburgh was a perfect 4-0 against the NFC. This year 2-2 seems more likely.
Last season, they opened against Tennessee and Houston, two real flops, and beat them both. The 2006 season opens against Miami, then at Jacksonville, home vs. Cincinnati, a bye and at San Diego. It would be no stretch to see the Steelers lose three or even all four of those games to start the campaign on just the wrong note.
The Steelers will be hard pressed to make the playoffs and have almost no shot at repeating as NFL champions.
Cleveland Browns (5-11) - Cleveland finished at the bottom of this division last season and is likely to do so again. The three teams ahead of them are playoff contenders, while the Browns are just trying to get to 8-8 (they were 6-10 last year).
Cleveland added some veterans to their roster through free agency and trades, including LB Willie McGinest, DT Ted Washington, WR Joe Jurevicius and punter Dave Zastudil. In the first two rounds of the draft, they opted for impact linebackers Kamerion Wimbley (Florida St.) and D'Quell Jackson (Maryland) to shore up the run defense, which ranked 30th in the league.
While these changes may well be positives, the choice of Charlie Frye at starting QB is one which may cause head coach Romeo Crennel some pain. Frye was OK as a rookie, but he's got much to do his supporting cast - outside of stud RB Reuben Droughns - is a tad below NFL standards.
If the Brownies can finish 8-8, everyone, including even the most jaded Cleveland fans, will be impressed. That is not likely to happen, however, as the Browns struggle through another losing season.
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