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2006 AFC South Preview
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AFC South Preview
Rick Gagliano | 8/28/06
AFC South predicted order of finish
Indianapolis Colts (13-3)
Indy should be as good as last year and the Jags will be a little better. After that, it's pretty much downhill in this split division.
Indianapolis Colts (13-3) - After delivering through the regular season, the Colts' Super Bowl aspirations came crashing down in their opening playoff game, a 21-18 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. With a break here or there, the Colts could have won that game and moved on, but fate was with the Steelers that day, and besides, Indy should never have been in such a precarious position to begin with.
Chalk that loss up to a culmination of events which included the untimely, tragic death of head coach Tony Dungy's son, starting the season 13-0, clinching the division title early and resting their starters in the final three games, a touch of overconfidence and Pittsburgh's surprisingly effective 3-4 blitzing defense.
Peyton Manning and the rest of the Colts have likely put last season behind them and are focused on securing home field advantage for the playoffs and making an appearance in the Super Bowl.
They have the tools on both sides of the ball despite the departure of RB Edgerrin James, who ground out 1506 yards on 360 carries last season. The Colts believe that Dominic Rhodes and top draft choice Joseph Addai (LSU) can fill James' sizable shoes in the backfield. There's reason to believe they're right. James averaged 4.1 yards per carry and Addai has the size and speed to do the same, while Rhodes knows the offense and can pick up blitzers well.
Obviously, most of the success or failure of the Colts rests on the capable shoulders of QB Peyton Manning, who threw for 3747 yards and 28 TDs (only 10 INTS) last season. His wideouts remain Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison, plus Dallas Clark and Brandon Stokley and either of his backs. Indy will move the ball and score plenty of points.
Defensively, they're just about the same unit which ranked 11th in yards allowed and 2nd in points allowed in 2005, which should be enough to translate into another 12-14 win season.
Make no doubt. The Colts are a top choice to appear in the Super Bowl and almost certainly - unless there are serious injuries to key players - will make it to the AFC championship game.
--- Story continues below ---
Byron Leftwich, the Jaguars starting QB, only played in 11 games last season, and he limped home in the playoff loss to New England. He's fully repaired and should have another solid season with even more of an offensive arsenal at his disposal than last year.
The Jaguars' leading receiver from 2005, Jimmy Smith, retired, but won't be missed for long as Jacksonville drafted TE Marcedez Lewis and RB Maurice Drew, both from UCLA, in the first two rounds. These newcomers will fit in with Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones (who could have a breakout season), Randy Hymes, Troy Edwards and Reggie Williams. The Jags are absolutely loaded with pass catchers.
Rookie Drew will likely spell veteran Fred Taylor at running back, but the Jaguars also have depth there too, with Greg Jones as an ample substitute. Taylor has been one of the more injury-prone backs in the league over the past decade, but he's the complete package when fully healthy.
An above-average defense will likely get better this season with DB Brian Williams and LB Nick Greisen joining the likes of Mike Peterson, John Henderson and a solid, if not spectacular, secondary.
If it seems like the Jaguars are built to beat the Colts - with a solid pass rush, contain defense and great cover guys - it's not by coincidence. If the Jaguars are to have any post-season success, the front office understands that they'll run into the Colts at some point; besides, beating them straight up during the regular season is the surest path to winning the division.
The Jaguars will nip at Indy's heels all season and if they overtake them at some point and even capture the division title, it won't be a surprise.
Enter Vince Young, fresh off upsetting USC and winning the NCAA championship. Young has size, speed, smarts, cool under pressure, but no experience. That lack of play in the NFL is a real detriment which will make Young appear foolish at more times this season than he'll appear to be the real deal.
In the long scheme of things, Vince Young may turn out to be a spectacular quarterback, but that will likely take years of patient learning and playing time. Young will get a world of experience on this team, as the Titans' porous defense will give up plenty of points, offering Young ample opportunities to throw the ball and play hero.
It's more than likely that Young will not have great success in his first season - few rookie QBs do - especially considering that he'll have few options downfield. His primary targets will be Drew Bennett, Erron Kinney and Ben Troupe - not exactly world-beaters.
A 4-12 season might be a little too much to ask from one of the weaker teams in the league, but that's still pretty bad, isn't it?
To make matters worse for the bumbling Texans, their on-field antics were superseded by the front office in the NFL draft. Instead of grabbing Reggie Bush, Matt Leinart or Vince Young, they surprised everyone - including many of their fans - by picking Mario Williams number one.
Williams, a talented DE from NC State, may become a franchise defensive player, but the move made little sense to anybody. The Texans have spent years being mediocre, but their draft day antics seemed to confirm the belief that it's purposeful futility.
There's little to say on the upside for these guys. David Carr will lead the league in being sacked (again) and the big story in Houston will be whether Domanick Davis can run for 1000 yards in 2006. Ho-hum. While the Texans twiddle away their franchise, there's a real league playing football out there.
The Texans will challenge Detroit for the #1 pick in next year's draft.
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