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2006 AFC West Preview
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AFC West Preview
Rick Gagliano | 8/28/06
AFC West predicted order of finish
Denver Broncos (10-6)
The most balanced division in football is mired in mediocrity. Denver may have the best balance of offense and defense, but they are probably not dominant on either side of the ball. San Diego has a fresh face behind center, while the Chiefs and Raiders break in new head coaches. The division is up for grabs.
Denver Broncos (10-6) - Jake Plummer had an outstanding season in 2005, throwing for 3366 yards, 18 TDs and only 7 interceptions. With production like that, Jake will keep his starting role and lead the Broncos to another title for coach Shanahan. The problem for Jake and the coach is that the cast has changed, and maybe not for the better.
Ashley Lelie, who bolted for Atlanta, was the 2nd most productive receiver on the team - behind ageless Rod Smith - and he led the Broncos with an eye-popping 18.3 yards per catch. Also departed is RB Mike Anderson, who led the team with 1014 yards rushing last year. His slack will supposedly be picked up by Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell, who will be the featured back. Anderson was also adept at catching the ball, something at which neither Bell nor Dayne are particularly adept. Bad for Jake.
Lelie will be replaced by Javon Walker, acquired in a draft day deal with Green Bay. Walker is coming off major knee surgery, but is ready to go and has looked fine in preseason. Still, the changes will pose a challenge for Plummer as he tries to repeat what was his best season in the league.
When the Broncos are on defense, they rely on a stuffing the run (ranked #2 in rushing yards allowed in 2005) and shut down corner Champ Bailey in the secondary. Due to their proficiency at stopping opponents' running games, Denver's stats against the pass last season were a little deceptive, ranking 29th in pass yards allowed.
Overall, however, the Broncos were #3 in scoring defense and ranked 15 in yards allowed. They are the most complete team in a division lacking any clear leader. It should be a dogfight, but the Broncos should find a way to the top.
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Bye-bye Drew Brees, hello, Philip Rivers.
While Brees was solid in his years with the Chargers, the front office felt it was time for the highly-touted Rivers, who sat on the bench most of the last two years.
Rivers will have the luxury of handing the ball off to LaDainian Tomlinson, one of the NFL's elite rushers. He'll get over 300 carries and 1400+ yards if healthy all season. When Rivers throws, he'll be going to TE Antonio Gates, along with wideouts Keenan McCardell, Eric Parker and Reche Caldwell. If Rivers comes as advertised, he's in for a bang-up season. If not, Marty Schottenheimer will get the blame and likely the axe.
The defense needs to step up, especially in the secondary, where they ranked 28th in total yards allowed through the air in 2005. Shawne Merriman is a standout at DE-LB and is expert at pressuring from the outside. He'll be in the pro bowl. The Chargers addressed the secondary situation with the addition of Safety Marlon McCree and DB Antonio Cromartie, chosen as the Chargers #1 pick out of Florida State.
The Chargers may actually be a better team than last year, but their schedule includes road games outside the division at Cincy, Seattle and Baltimore and only a few cupcakes. A playoff berth is possible, but it looks like 10-6 will be the number and the Chargers may not make that. It's too much to expect from a QB with almost no NFL experience to lead a team to the playoffs, but the Chargers may be willing to pay that price this season in exchange for future success.
Edwards has apparently chosen Larry Johnson as his primary running back, with Priest Holmes as backup. Trent Green, one of the most durable and dependable QBs in the league will take snaps and throw to TE Tony Gonzalez and wideouts Eddie Kennison, Samie Parker and Dante Hall.
KC will have no trouble moving the ball or scoring in the red zone, but, as usual, the defense will be deficient. The Chiefs were ranked 28th in the league in average yards allowed per play, mostly the fault of an anemic pass rush and so-so run stoppers. The Chiefs top two draft picks, DE Tamba Hali (Penn St.) and DB Bernard Pollard (Purdue), should start right away and may make an impact, though the overall defense is short a couple players from being a dominant unit.
The Chiefs may make the playoffs as a wild card, but it seems unlikely in a division in which San Diego and Denver have better balance. They'll be a solid, competitive team, but will head home to their TVs on December 31.
Aaron Brooks comes over from the Saints as the quarterback, and his #1 target will be Randy Moss, who had 1000 yards worth of receptions even though he didn't lead the team in catches in 2005. That honor went to Jerry Porter, who snagged 76 balls for 942 yards.
Lamont Jordan emerged as the Raiders' top back in 2005, as well as a capable receiver out of the backfield. He's back for what should be a productive season.
The defense will miss DT Ted Washington and DB Charles Woodson, though top draft choice Michael Huff (Texas) should start in the secondary.
Last season, the Raiders' defense was among the worst in the league and it doesn't look to get much better this year. Randy Moss made a bonehead move when he left Minnesota for Oakland a few years back. Whatever the Raiders promised him, they haven't delivered and their poor overall play has relegated his once-promising career to the back pages of the sports section.
Somebody has to finish last, and in a division marred by incomplete teams, the Raiders look weakest of all.
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