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COLLEGE BASKETBALL DAILY Current | Previous Rick Gagliano Sunday, March 20, 2005 Second Round Results and Game Recaps 7:40 pm EST Louisville 76 Georgia Tech 54 Paced by Francisco Garcia's 18 points, the Louisville Cardinals shot 63% and raced to a 45-30 halftime lead. After the frantic pace of the first half, Tech turned up the defense and briefly cut the lead to 8, but Louisville re-established the double-digit lead quickly and had the game under control with 8 minutes left. Garcia finished with 22 to lead all scorers. Taquan Dean hit four of six 3-pointers and had 14, while Larry O'Bannon played his usual steady game, finishing with 16 points Wisconsin 71 Bucknell 62 Bucknell hung in and hung around, never letting the Badgers build a big lead, but eventually Wisconsin pulled away late after hammering the ball inside to Mike Wilkinson, who finished with 23, and Alando Tucker, who hit only one shot, but was 15-18 from the foul line. The Badgers will face North Carolina State in the next round. Duke 63 Mississippi State 55 In a game that more often resembled a rugby scrum, Duke edged clear late and gave coach Mike Krzyzewski the all-time record for wins in the national tournament. The Bulldog's strongman, Lawrence Roberts, couldn't get anything to drop in the first half, going 2-10 from the floor and missing both of his free throw attempts. His teammates didn't fare much better, shooting at a 28% clip in the first half. Roberts got it going in the 2nd half, and finished with 17. Duke's big man, Sheldon Williams, sat out most of the 1st half with 2 fouls and picked up his 3rd early in the 2nd half, but stayed in the game. Mississippi State was within 2 points late, but Duke made key plays down the stretch. Daniel Ewing sparkled for the Blue Devils, scoring 20 points, including 4-7 from 3-point range. 5:00 pm EST Villanova 76 Florida 65 Jason Fraser scored 23 and Randy Foye added 18, as Villanova swamped the Gators, 76-65. Florida's David Lee was high man for the losers with 20. Villanova shut out the Gators' Matt Walsh in the first half, building a 7-point lead, and Walsh could only muster 12 points on 4-13 shooting. The Gators cut the lead to one early in the second half, but the Wildcats went on a run and put the game out of reach. Oklahoma State 85 Southern Illinois 77 The Salukis led 46-39 at the half, as Darren Brooks and Jamaal Tatum each scored 13, but the Cowboys went on a 12-0 run to open the 2nd half and take the lead. Southern Illinois countered with a 5-0 run of their own to tie at 51, but Oklahoma State spurted ahead to a lead that fluctuated between 5 and 10 points the rest of the way. Ivan McFarlin led the Cowboy charges with 31 points, who face Arizona in the next round. North Carolina 92 Iowa State 65 Sean May scored 24 points and Marvin Williams had 20, propelling the Tar Heels to a second round win. Opening the second half by outscoring the Cyclones 12-4, Carolina had a 20-point lead and cruised from there, never allowing Iowa State closer than 14. The Tar Heels 92 points follows a 96 point effort on Friday in their win over Oakland. Carolina could have had more, as they were only 22 of 37 (60%) from the charity stripe. Michigan State 72 Vermont 61 The glass slipper came off the Catamounts two days after knocking off Syracuse in the opening round. Vermont could not handle Michigan State's superior size, speed and athleticism as the Spartans held a comfortable lead - as much for much of the game. Paul Davis controlled the interior, scoring 11 and hauling in 13 rebounds. Maurice Ager, with 19 points and Kelvin Torbert, with 14, spearheaded the Spartan attack. 3:00 pm EST North Carolina St. 65 Connecticut 62 Julius Hodge scored 17 points, including a critical 3-point play with 4.3 seconds left to play, as NC State determined that there would be a new champion this year, knocking out last year's champ, Connecticut, 65-62. The Wildcats, a #10 seed, trailed by 4 at the half to the 2nd seeded Huskies, but established a lead early in the 2nd half and battled down the stretch. Charlie Villanueva tied the game at 62 with 12 seconds left, but Hodge drove to the hoop, scored, was fouled and converted. Hodge also added 3 rebounds and 6 assists. Saturday, March 19, 2005 Second Round Results and Game Recaps West Virginia 111 Wake Forest 105 2OT It took two extra sessions, but the West Virginia Mountaineers took out 2nd seeded Wake Forest, 111-105. Mike Gansey scored 29 and Tyrone Sally threw in 21, as the Mountaineers advance to play Texas Tech next, in the 3rd round. Wake Forest is the first ACC team to exit, as well as being the highest seed eliminated thus far. Kentucky 69 Cincinnati 60 In what was the most physical game of the tourney, #2 seed Kentucky turned back Cincinnati's Bearcats and advanced. Kelenna Azubuike scored 19 points and Randolph Morris contributed 11 with 12 rebounds, as the Wildcats pulled away in the final minutes. The win was the Wildcats' 15th straight over Cincy - a streak that dates back to 1939. Kentucky will face upset-minded #6 seed Utah, who knocked off #3 seed Oklahoma earlier in the day. Arizona 85 UAB 63 Salim Stoudamire lit it up for 28 points and the Arizona Wildcats swarmed over UAB en route to an easy win. Arizona dominated on offense, hitting at a 53% clip, and outrebounded their opponents, 39-32, while holding the Blazers to 32% shooting, including 6-30 (20%) from beyond the arc. Coach Lute Olsen has now brought his Wildcats into the Sweet 16 for the 4th time in five years. 6:10 pm EST Wisconsin-Milwaukee 83 Boston College 75 The Panthers continue to prove giant-killers, today knocking off Boston College and advancing to the Sweet 16 after beating Alabama in their first game. Wisconsin-Milwaukee outhustled the Eagles and eventually wore the them out, hiting 20 of 22 (90%) of their free throws in the process. Josh Tucker led the way with 23 points and Ed McCants added 18. Craig Smith scored 25 in a losing effort. The Panthers will have their work cut out for them in their next game, as they face #1 Illinois. Illinois 71 Nevada 59 James Augustine scored 17 first half points and finished with a career-high 23 along with 10 board and 4 blocks to lead the Illini to the next level. Jack Ingram also recorded a career high with 12 points. Darren Williams clicked for 15 points and dished 10 assists, routinely finding open men near the goal. The final score was not indicative of the sope of Illinois' win, as they opened a huge lead in the second half and coasted. The Illini shot 53% overall, but only 2-12 from 3-point range. Still, the Big Ten champions proved very adaptable and in control. 6:10 pm EST Washington 97 Pacific 79 Washington's speed and quickness was too much for Pacific to handle as the Huskies kept the Bulldogs at bay throughout. The Huskies forced turnovers and scored repeatedly on the fast break, putting up the highest point total thus far in the tourney. The Huskies shot 56% from the floor and 16 of 19 (84%) from the foul line. Nate Robinson was 10-14, including 2 3-pointers, for 23 points. Utah 67 Oklahoma 58 The Utah Utes raced out to an early 16-4 lead, and led the Sooners by 9 at the half. Utah kept working their inside-outside game to perfection, building a 15-point lead early in the 2nd half with a combination of 3s from Marc Jackson, who hit four of five, and the inside work of Andrew Bogut who led all scorers with 20. Utah controlled the interior, topping the Sooners in rebounds by a good margin. The Sooners were 0-11 from 3-point range until Lawrence McKenzie hit a trey with 12 1/2 minutes remaining. They finished 2-19 from long range and shot only 32% for the game, 21-66. 3:20 pm EST Gonzaga 71 Texas Tech 69 Texas Tech rallied back from a 13-point second half deficit to defeat the #3 seed, Gonzaga. Tech, the #6 seed in the region, forced turnovers and ran a patient offense to grind down the favored Zags and send them packing. Ronald Ross sealed the deal with 2 free throws as the clock wound down to single digits and the Zags were left with only a desperation heave at the buzzer. Ross, a walk on team captain, sparked the Red Raiders with 24 points and 9 rebounds. Adam Morrison led the Zags with 25 and 9 boards. Texas Tech becomes the first team to reach the Sweet 16 in this year's tournament. It's the first appearance in the round of 16 for coach Bobby Knight since 1996. Friday, March 18, 2005 First Round Results and Game Recaps 12:20 am EST Michigan State 89 Old Dominion 81 Tom Izzo's Spartans survived a scare from Old Dominion, but put five players in double figures to advance. Georgia Tech 80 George Washington 68 The Yellowjackets cruised to an opening round win for the right to play Louisville on Sunday. Jarret Jack scored 20 and dished six assists. Bucknell 64 Kansas 63 The Bucknell Bisons were not intimidated by #3 seed Kansas as they led almost the entire game. As time worse down to 2.4 seconds, Kansas, down one, had a chance to win the game at the buzzer, but Wayne Simien missed a turnaround in the lane and the Bisons sent the Jayhawks home early. Simien led all scorers with 25, but Kevin Bettencourt was tops for the winners with 19, including 5 3-pointers. The Jayhawks couldn't hit the moon from beyond the arc, going 1-11. Mississippi State 93 Stanford 70 Lawrence Roberts tallied 23 for 9 seed Mississippi State, leading them to a first-round rout of 8 seed Stanford. The Bulldogs shot 57% from the field while the Cardinal connected on only 38%. The Bulldgs next opponent is Duke, on Sunday. 9:40 pm EST Vermont 60 Syracuse 57 13 seed Vermont pushed the Syracuse Oragemen the limit, taking the game into overtime before coming away with the first big upset of the tournament. Gerry McNamara was held to 2 points and Syracuse committed 13 turnovers in the first half, as the spunky Vermont Catamounts scrapped until the end. McNamara found his range and scored 7 in the final 7 minutes. Hakim Warrick scored the last eight points for the Orange in regulation and the first two in OT. In the overtime, Mopa Njila hit a key 3-pointer in OT to give the Catamonts a one-point lead, and on the next possession, Sorrentine hit a 30-foot bomb to put Vermont up by four. Josh Pace cut it to 2 with a short hook at 1:07, but when McNamara dribbled the ball off his foot and committed an over and back violation with 15 seconds left, the Catamounts were on their way to upset city. Taylor Coppenrath scored 16, Germain Mopa Njila, 20, and T.J. Sorrentine had 17 for the victors. Vermont's coach, Tom Brennan, has already announced his retirement at the end of the season, but his players apparently don't want to say good-bye just yet. Louisville 68 Louisiana-Lafayette 62 The Louisville Cardinals struggled with the Runnin' Rebels, but were steady down the stretch. Frnacisco Garcia led all scorers with 27. Wisconsin 57 Northern Iowa 52 Kammron Taylor had 16, and Sharif Chambliss, 15, pacing the Badgers to an opening round win. wisconsin hit 11 3-pointers, including 5 by Chambliss. Duke 57 Delaware State 46 The Duke Blue Devils started slowly but held off Delaware St. The two teams combined for a only 39 2nd half points, by Duke expanded the advantage they had built by halftime. Only Daniel Ewing, with 12 and Sheldon Williams, who had 14, finished in double figures for Duke. J. J. Redick scored 7 points on 1 for 7 shooting. The 57 points was the lowest point total of the season for the Blue Devils. 5:45 pm EST Connecticut 77 UCF 71 Pesky Central Florida would not go away even after the Huskies built a big lead. Charlie Villanueva led the way with 22 points and seven rebounds as the reigning champions continued. Villanova 55 New Mexico 47 Villanova moved on, despite a 2nd half rally from New Mexico. The Lobos were held to 11 points in the first half. Southern Illinois 65 St. Mary's 56 The Saluki's 9-point halftime lead held up through the second half as Southern Illinois advanced. North Carolina 96 Oakland 68 The Tar Heels opened tournament play with the highest score yet posted. Four Carolina players finished in double figures in a game that was essentially settled in the opening 12 minutes. The Tar Heels scored 59 points in the first half and shot 64% for the game. 2:45 pm EST North Carolina State 75 Charlotte 63 The Charlotte 49ers came out firing and built an 18-4 lead in the first 5 1/2 minutes, but Julius Hodge brought NC State back for statement win for the ACC. Hodge, the ACC Player of the Year, topped all scorers with 19 points and added 9 assists and 7 rebounds. Florida 67 Ohio 62 Surprising Ohio stormed back from a 20-point deficit to tie #4 Florida at 60 with 2 minutes left. The Gators, playing tentatively down the stretch, got a few late breaks and escaped, however unimpressive. Matt Walsh had 18 points and 7 assists for Florida. Mychal Green threw down 24 for Ohio. Iowa State 64 Minnesota 53 Iowa State took took an early lead and held on comfortably over Minnesota, leaving only Michigan State, Wisconsin and Illinois from the Big 10. Curtis Stinson led the way with 18. Oklahoma State 63 Southeastern Louisiana 50 The Cowboys were in a tough fight most of the way, but made big shots down the stretch and held off a determined SE Louisiana. Ivan McFarlin had 18 for the winners. Thursday, March 17, 2005 First Round Results and Game Recaps 12:15 am EST Illinois 67 Fairleigh Dickinson 55 Top-ranked Illinois used a 2nd half spurt to put away pesky Fairleigh Dickinson and advance to the second round. Dee Brown paced the Illini with 19 points. Illinois shot only 42% for the game and were 6-21 on 3-pointers. Next up for Illinois is Nevada. West Virginia 63 Creighton 61 The Mountaineers of West Virginia scored on a breakaway dunk by Tyronne Sally with 2.4 seconds remaining and survived the closest game of the day. Kevin Pittsnogle led the way with 17 points. ACC powerhouse Wake Forest awaits the Mountaineers this weekend. UAB 82 LSU 68 LSU joined Alabama as the second higher-seeded SEC team to lose on opening day, as Alabama-Birmingham turned in a dominant performance, holding the Tigers to 6-32 3-point shooting while hitting 7 of 16 themselves. The Blazers led by more than 20 much of the 2nd half before LSU woke up late in the game. UAB will play Arizona on Saturday. Texas Tech 78 UCLA 66 Bobby Kinight's Red Raiders were in control nearly from the start and handed UCLA an early exit. Ronald Ross was 2 points short of his career high with 29 points as he led the scoring for both teams. Jarrius Jackson had 19 and Devonne Giles added 16. Gonzaga will be Tech's opponent on Saturday. 9:40 pm EST Nevada 61 Texas 57 First Big 12 team out is #8 seed Texas, dropping to #9 Nevada in the minor upset. The Longhorns couldn't stop Jason Klotz, who led all scorers with 20 in a sloppily-played game. Wake Forest 70 Chattanooga 54 Wake Forest was down three at the half, but put it all together in the 2nd half and ran away from the 15 seed. Chris Paul had a game high 18 points. Arizona 66 Utah State 55 Arizona got 17 from Channing Frye and Salim Stoudamire in a solid effort over the 14th-seeded Aggies, in a solid all-around effort. Big 12 now 0-2. Gonzaga 74 Winthrop 64 The Zags trailed most of the game, but rallied late and survived a scare. Adam Morrison paced the Zags (3) with 27 points. Ronny Turiaf had only one field goal but chipped in with 11 free throws. 5:30 pm EST Cincinnati 76 Iowa 64 Beware the Bearcats! More to the point, don't disregard teams from Conference USA. Cincinnati used power inside and accurate outside shooting (9-19 on 3's) to overwhelm the Iowa Hawkeyes. Jason Maxiell paced the winners with 22 points and domination on the boards. The result could have been worse, as the Bearcats hit only 51% from the line and after establishing an early lead, were never threatened. Boston College 85 Pennsylvania 65 4th seeded Boston College made easy work of undersized Penn, knocking the Quakers out in the first half, building a 20 point lead by intermission. BC placed five players in double figures with Jarod Dudley tops with 18. The Eagles shot 59% for the game, including 8 of 12 from 3-point range. Washington 88 Montana 77 The Washington Huskies, seeded #1 in the Albuquerque region, proved themselves worthy with an easy win over Montana. The kids from Big Sky country didn't help themselves any by going a miserable 1 of 7 from the charity stripe. The Huskies balanced scoring attack - 7 players contributed at least 8 points each - was too much for Montana. Brandon Roy paced the Huskies, who face upset winner Pacific next, with 17 points. Utah 60 UTEP 54 In the tournament's first nail biter, The Runnin' Utes got a key turnover with 15 seconds to go and a two-point lead, and finished strong at the foul line to win a hotly contested game. Andrew Bogut had his way inside and outside, scoring 24 points, including 2 of 3 from outside the arc. More scores and recaps at 9:00 pm EST. Kentucky 72 Eastern Kentucky 64 The first final score of the tournament belongs to Kentucky. The Wildcats took an early lead and used their strength inside to overwhelm Eastern Kentucky and move on. Kelenna Azubuike and Chuck Hayes led the #2 seeded Wildcats with 16 points each. Wisconsin-Milwaukee 83 Alabama 73 In the first of the day's bracket busters, #12 seed Wisconsin-Milwaukee led from the start and held on for the upset of 5th seeded Alabama. Josh Tucker and Ed McCants each tallied 21 for the Panthers. McCants had five 3s. Both squads shot over 50% from the floor, but Wisconsin-Milwaukee threw down 12 3 -pointers and were 19-26 from the foul line. Pacific 79 Pittsburgh 71 Not as shocking, the Pacific Tigers took out #9 seed Pittsburgh. Christian Maraker and David Doubley each had 17 and were deadly from 3-point range. Mike Webb scored 15, all from beyond the arc, on 5 of 8 shooting. The Tigers will likely face #1 seed Washington in the next round Oklahoma 84 Niagara 64 The Sooners got a little bit of a tussle from Niagara, but the second half was all Oklahoma, as they turned a 3-point halftime lead into a dominating performance. The Sooners got balanced scoring, as 6 players finished in double figures. Niagara's Juan Mendez sparkled for the Purple Eagle with 22 points, but could not overcome Oklahoma's inside power game. Wednesday, March 16, 2005 Bracketology Phase III - The Final Four By the time we reach the Final Four, if you can still make selections, or you want to refine your final selections, here are some keys: Lately, the Championship has been won by first-time coaches. The players know how important the games are, and quality coaches who have been close but never won, may have an edge. Mismatches, especially at the guard position, create wins. With only four teams remaining, you can look at common opponents and sometimes even head-to-head meetings. Hot players. Any player who has put up huge numbers is in a zone and will be hard to stop. The eventual champion usually has a star guard, complemented by a powerful inside scoring and rebounding presence. Records don't matter at this point. Whichever team has more desire is going to win it all. Desire has trumped talent many times. However, having both, nearly ensures a win. This season, one team has all of the above, and that is North Carolina. The Tar Heels will win it all. Here's a peek at the Chicago and Albuquerque Regions. In the Chicago region, it's all Illinois. They won't have a meaningful game until the Elite Eight, Arizona or Oklahoma State. The Wildcats should handle LSU in the second round, while Oklahoma State only has SE Louisiana and then the winner of Southern Illinois or St. Mary's, which is a real toss up. Either of those teams will give the Cowboys a tussle, but the kids from Oklahoma State are fairly talented. I'd give them a slight edge over Arizona, and if not them, then it's a cakewalk to face Illinois for the right to advance to the Final Four. The Illini will win that game. They are deep and solid, though the matchup with either Arizona or Oklahoma State could be trouble. In the Albuquerque Region, #1 seed Washington may not make it through the first weekend as they will likely face Pitt in their 2nd game. If they survive, it will be either Louisville or Georgia Tech, though I like the Cardinals to come through and beat whomever they face to that point. In the bottom part of the bracket, Wake Forest will cruise through their first three games. The only possible upset will be either Gonzaga or Texas Tech, who should meet on the first weekend. Wake Forest is capable of beating either of those and will, though they will lose to Louisville and coach Rick Pitino. In the Final Four, Louisville will be beaten by Illinois and North Carolina will defeat Oklahoma. The final will be a coronation for the Tar Heels in continuance of a rich tradition and a first-time win for coach Roy Williams. The only caveat I have here is that if Louisville makes the Final Four and somehow does not have to face the Tar Heels, they will win it all. Tuesday, March 15, 2005 Bracketology Phase II, the round of Sixteen If you're still alive in your brackets heading into the second weekend, or if you need some pointers for a contest that has to be complete before the tournament kicks off, here's some things to know. First, if there are going to be any big upsets they will occur in the Thursday-Friday round of games, not on Saturday or Sunday. In other words, the sleeper teams seeded 8th or higher who have made it this far - there will likely be 2 or 3 of them - may win another game, but the chances of winning a truly meaningful game and getting to the Final Four are slim to none. With that info in hand, which of the upset teams are likely to even survive into the weekend? Is it the higher seeded team? The one with the most momentum? More than likely it depends on the opposition. Any team can have a bad game, so now is the time to get the season records out and look at the higher-ranked teams that have discernible vulnerabilities. If they sometimes get whacked when they should win, there's a pretty good shot that they will fall short. Take a close look at free throw shooting. It's the key stat that separates the men from the boys in the Sweet Sixteen round. If guys aren't making the freebies, they're likely to get beat up. A word on injuries. If a starter or key bench guy is injured and out for one of these games, that's actually a positive for a high-seed team, unless it's their leading scorer or top rebounder. The reason for this is that other guys on the squad will usually pick their game up and deliver when one of their fellow warriors is down. Don't get suckered into thinking that injuries mean losses. Over the course of history, the opposite is usually the case. Tomorrow: Picking the winner, the Final Four Here's a breakdown of two regions, the Syracuse and Austin Regions (usually known as the East and Southeast). In the Syracuse region, the top seed is the North Carolina Tar Heels and they look to have a tough schedule, but they should get to the final four. After they knock off the winner of the play-in game (come on, has anyone ever even heard of Oakland or Alabama A & M?) they take on the winner of Minnesota - Iowa State. The Tar Heels have more talent than any team in the field so they're a lock to win their opener and they'll blow past either of these teams in the second round. Since everybody's really high on Iowa State and I haven't been impressed, I'll go with the Badgers in round one and watch them get killed by the Tar Heels in round two. The bottom of the sub-bracket includes Villanova, New Mexico and Florida. I like Florida to emerge from this group and get to the Sweet Sixteen. In the other game, I think the Lobos will shock the world and knock off the Wildcats in the opening game. In the bottom of the bracket, I like UConn, Kansas, Charlotte and Wisconsin to win their openers, and then the bracket could explode. Charlotte could upset UConn and Wisconsin may be a better team than Kansas, a team that struggled down the stretch. Since I'm looking for a bracket buster, I'll call for both of them to be upset winners, Charlotte and Wisconsin. I simply cannot see Kansas in the Sweet Sixteen. In the second weekend, North Carolina will take out a feisty Florida squad and Charlotte, a 7 seed, will continue it's dream run. They will, however, be soundly routed by the Tar Heels and be denied entry to the Final Four. Over in the Austin Bracket, once again the tournament committee bent over and paid homage to Duke and gave them easy access to the Final Four. And once again, the Blue Devils will blow it. After Duke, the team most people think can upset the Blue Devils is either Syracuse or Kentucky. After watching the debacle that was the SEC championship game, I don't like Kentucky at all. But Syracuse has a shot at Duke. The real sleeper is Oklahoma, who got in as the #3 seed. After beating up on Niagara, they'll take on Utah most likely, and then have a hell of a time with Cincinnati. I like Cincy to knock off Iowa and then Kentucky to get to the Sweet Sixteen. But when they face off with the Sooners, it's going to look more like a sumo match than a basketball game. Both of these teams have big presence inside, but nobody in the country can handle Taj Gray and Kevin Bookout of the Sooners. If they get some play from their guards and their bench, they will be trouble. In the Duke half of the bracket, the 5-12 game pits Michigan State against Old Dominion and this is the most obvious upset available. OD will take out the overrated Spartans in the opener, just so they can get blasted on the weekend by Syracuse. Duke will swamp Delaware State and then Stanford (they could pull of the upset, but I'm not going to stretch that far, though any gambling men may want to take note as the spread will be rich and the game will be close) before pulling out a close one against the Orange. But by the end of the second weekend, there will be only one team standing from this region, the Oklahoma Sooners. Tomorrow: The Chicago and Albuquerque regions Monday, March 14, 2005 Bracketology Phase One Here's a quick guide to success in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. On the first weekend, there are a total of 48 games (16 each on Thursday and Friday, and 8 each on Saturday and Sunday). At the end of this marathon weekend, the field will have been reduced to 16. Correctly picking 48 games is a near statistical impossibility, though there are a lucky few every year who accomplish the feat. Don't expect it to be you. What you want out of the first two rounds are as many survivors as possible. If you have 12-14 teams remaining after the first weekend, you have done well, unless your top pick to win it all is one of the losers. The #1 seeds are going to win their first round games. That's a given, as no #1 has ever been upset by a 16 seed. And it won't happen this year. Even if it does, nearly everybody else who picked their brackets will be losers too, so you'll have plenty of company. Ditto the 15 vs. 2 games. The #2 seed has been upset in the past, but it is rare. 3's and 4's are relatively safe in the first round, but at least one, and likely 2 out of the top 16 seeds overall (1-4) will not pass the test. The big upsets usually happen in the 5 vs. 12 games, but that's more perception than reality. Look at it like a horse race. If a 16-1 shot beats an even money favorite, that's an upset. If a 12-1 beats a 5-1 or a 10-1 beats a 7-1, it's not such a big deal. After that, the first round becomes pretty testy. 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 games are difficult because the teams are supposedly evenly matched, though most of us - except for the occasional hoops junkie - knows little to nothing about these teams. There's really no formula for success in these games but there are some keys. Location of the game is one. If a team is playing virtually in their own back yard or on a court in their conference with which they're familiar, that can be a big plus. It's also helpful to check stats. If you can find a definitive edge (overall team height, speed vs. power, a key injury), take it. One other note is that good play from guards is a key to advancing in the tourney. Big guys tend to cancel each other out, but if you have a hot shooting guard, or better yet, a hot #2 with a solid point man who can penetrate, you've likely got a winner, or at least a shot at an upset. Don't make the mistake of taking all the higher seeds. A 5 seed is not far removed from a 12. Upsets will happen and you'll need to have a few of them. The keys to success in picking the winners in the first rounds are knowing the teams, knowing which of the lower seeds have a chance, and which of the top seeds are playing well or have walkover games. After the Thursday and Friday games, you're in good shape if you have 25-30 winners out of 32. By Sunday night, consider yourself that much closer to basketball nirvana if you have 13 or more live teams. Tomorrow: getting to the Final Four and picking the winner. Sunday, March 13, 2005 Conference Tournament Updates 5:25 pm: Oklahoma St. may have secured a #1 seed by winning the Big 12 title game today, 72-68 over Texas Tech. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini likely locked up the #1 seed overall (they will be in the MidWest) by winning the Big 10 title game, 54-43 over Wisconsin. The top four seeds, my picks: Illinois, Duke, Louisville, Oklahoma State. We'll know shortly. 3:30 pm: DUKE SURVIVES, WINS ACC FINAL, EYES #1 SEED The Duke Blue Devils led all the way and won the ACC tournament, topping Georgia Tech, 69-64. Duke had to hold off a furious Tech rally, which cut Duke's double-digit margin to one with under a minute to play. JJ Reddick hit two crucial free throws and Sheldon Williams scored on a tip-in as coach K's kids proved themselves once again. The Blue Devils did it largely with defense, holding the Yellowjackets to 30% shooting - 21 for 70. With the win, Duke has put itself in position for a #1 seeding in the NCAA tourney. 3:15 pm: In the SEC final, Florida led until midway through the second half, briefly relinquishing the lead to Kentucky at that point, but Matt Walsh hit three straight 3-pointers in a 2:10 span to rebuild Florida's lead. When Anthony Roberson made a three-pointer with 7:50 remaining, the Gators led by 8 and cruised to the 70-53 victory, the first SEC tournament championship in the school's history. The Gators outscored Kentucky 33-9 in the last 11:30 of the game. Florida has played themselves right into a 4 or 5 seeding by running the table in the toruney and winning 9 of their last 10, including two straight over the Wildcats. With the number of top teams falling in conference tournaments this weekend - Kansas, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Arizona, Connecticut, Boston College and now Kentucky - finding deserving #1 seeds will test the skill of the tournament committee, who will release the seedings at 6:00 pm today. At this writing, only one #1 is assured, that being Illinois, regardless of the outcome of their Big Ten final today, though the Louisville Cardinals, winners of Conference USA regular season and tournament, deserve a long look. After the Illini, the teams deserving of #1 seed status now come down to Louisville, Duke, North Carolina, and Oklahoma State, if they win the Big 12 final today (in progress). 12:45 pm: Updating yesterday's late results... Continuing the trend of top 10 teams losing in conference tournaments, a couple of lower-eschelon Top 25 teams got bounced in their respective finals. #18 Pacific flopped against Utah State, 65-52, in the Big West. The Aggies get the automatic bid. Pacific will be in as well. #15 Utah lost to New Mexico, 60-56 in the Mountain West finals. The Lobos are IN and always dangerous. Four finals today, and I will be updating as results come in. At 1:00, the ACC finals (Duke vs. Georgia Tech) and SEC finals (Kentucky vs. Florida). These two games alone should whet our collective appetities for more college hoops to come. At 3:00 the Big 12 finals pit Texas Tech against the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The game showcases not only two hot teams, but two legendary coaches, OK State's Eddie Sutton and Boby Knight of the Red Raiders. The last major conference final will be in the Big 10, as Illinois takes on Wisconsin, tipping at 3:30. The Illini are favored by 7, but don't be surprised if this one is a lot closer. Check back here around 9:00 am EST Monday for bracket analysis. Saturday, March 12, 2005 Conference Tournament Updates 11:00: Syracuse takes Big East tourney title, 68-59 over West Virginia. 8:30 pm: Oklahoma State will face Texas Tech in the Big 12 finals, as they knocked off Kansas, 78-75. The Jayhawks have lost 5 of their last 8 (and the CBS analysts insist they're a #1 seed along with Wake Forest. My choices for the #1 seeds are Illinois, Louisville, North Carolina and now, Washington, having just knocked off Arizona in the PAC-10 finals, 81-72. The Big East final is underway, with Syracuse and West Virginia vying for the title. The winner gets an automatic nod, though Syracuse is certainly in already. The Mountaineers have played themselves in already it seems. 6:10 pm: WISCONSIN ADVANCES to Big 10 final, play Illinois tomorrow, with last second win over Iowa. In the SEC, Kentucky held on in OT, 79-78 over LSU (in). The Wildcats will play Florida in the SEC finals. The Gators lost by three to Kentucky in Lexington, but won 53-52 just a week ago Sunday in Gainesville. Tomorrow's contest ought to be a good one. Duke moves on to the ACC finals vs. Georgia Tech, winning 76-69 over NC State. 4:20 pm: Texas Tech advances to Big 12 finals after beating Oklahoma, 69-63. Both teams are likely in the NCAA field. The Red Raiders will take on the winner of the Kansas-Oklahoma St. semi-final. 4:10 pm: North Carolina upset by Georgia Tech in Acc Tourney, 78-75. Tech will play winner of Duke - NC State tilt (in progress). Florida KO'd Alabama, 68-62. Gators are in and can secure an outright bid in the SEC finals tomorrow, likely vs. Kentucky. Illinois advanced to the Big 10 finals with a 64-56 win over Minnesota. (The Gophers are on the bubble, but likely in as the fifth team from the conference. Down to Louisville by 2 points Memphis' freshman Darius Washington Jr. was fouled on a three-point attempt at the game clock expired. Making all three would have put Memphis in the NCAA tournament by winning the Conference USA tourament. Washington cooly canned the first, but sadly missed the next two, giving Louisville a hard-earned win, 76-75. Call it serendipity, or luck or fate, but Louisville adds the C-USA tourney to their regular season championship and deserve at least a #2, if not a #1 seed in the NCAA Tourney. Check back often for updates on conference tournament games... Friday, March 11, 2005 GETTING READY FOR SELECTION SUNDAY Who will be the top four seeds in the upcoming NCAA Tournament came into closer focus on Friday, as conference tournaments commenced. With Illinois practically assured the #1 overall seed and North Carolina, out winner of the ACC title, looking like a cold lock, the other two positions are dependent upon the outcomes of this weekend's games. Already a scratch from the top four is Big East champ Boston College, who was shocked by West Virginia in the post-season tourney on Thursday. The Mountaineers proved it wasn't a fluke, following up with another inspired 78-76 win over Villanova. Also knocked off was Connecticut, handed a XX loss in the semis by Syracuse. The Big East will likely send six teams to the NCAAs - BC, Pitt, UConn, Villanova, Syracuse and West Virginia - the most of any conference. Louisville is 18-1 since January 8 and 8 straight with today's 74-67 win over UAB. The Cardinals take on Memphis in the Conference USA tournament finals on Saturday. Having split the regular season games with the Tigers, Louisville is not taking the game lightly, as a win secures no less than a #2 seeding in the Big Dance, and possibly a #1 spot, should Illinois, Kentucky or Kansas stumble. North Carolina has to be considered the favorite for the tournament. At 26-3, they are the most focused and experienced and arguably the most talented team in the tournament. And let's not forget the rich Tar Heel history. In the tournament, the little things count. Having Roy Williams, one of the winningest coaches in NCAA history running the show, doesn't hurt. What's best about the Tar Heels chances is that they may not have to play Duke or Wake Forest, who accounted for two of those three losses, in the NCAA. The other blemish on their record was the first game of the season, an unexpected upset at the hands of Santa Clara. Carolina will play Georgia Tech in the ACC Tourney Semifinals on Saturday, while Duke will play NC State, the upset winner over Wake Forest on Friday. So, nearly regardless upon the outcomes of the conference tournament finals this weekend, the top four seeds are looking like Illinois, North Carolina, Louisville and Kentucky. The #2 seeds now look like Arizona, Duke, Wake Forest and any one of Oklahoma State, Kansas, Syracuse or Connecticut. If any team other than the ones mentioned in this paragraph get s a 1 or 2 seed, take the points against them in the early rounds. In other conference tournament action, #1 Illinois easily handled Northwestern 68-51, advancing to the semi-finals in the Big 10. They take on Minnesota, a team they bounced 89-66 in the regular season. The Golden Gophers have won five straight, the last three on the road, but an Illini loss is nearly out of the question. They are prohibitive favorites to win this game and the finals, especially after Iowa dumped Michigan State. Iowa will take on Wisconsin in the other semi. In the Big 12, Kansas and Oklahoma State play Saturday in the tournament finals, while Arizona and Washington fight for top honors in the PAC-10 tourney. While Clark Kellogg is Searching for Cinderella over on Yahoo!, I'm going to give you some teams who look to make early exits. Tops on the list is Michigan State, who cruised through a very thin Big Ten schedule. The Spartans are ranked much higher (13) than they deserve to be. They may not even be Top 25 material. Sine the Big Ten will still get four or five teams into the tourney, I have to issue a warning against the entire conference. With the exception of Illinois, no Big 10 team will likely make the Sweet 16. Also on the possible MIA list is the Big 12. Depending on the matchups, after Oklahoma State and Kansas, the teams going to the Dance are suspect. Likely to make the field of 65 are Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech. The SEC is also thin, right after Kentucky, who probably won't be in the Final Four, by the way. If there's two conferences I don't like, well, they have to lose to somebody, and the Big East, ACC and PAC-10 will provide. Watch those West Coast teams - especially Arizona and Washington. For sleepers, Pitt, who will get a 5, 6 or 7 seed, could come up with a nice draw and run off four straight wins easily.