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Fearless Rick's College Football Bowl Game Picks Games of 12/23 - 12/29 Rick Gagliano | 12/20/05
Games of 12/20-22 | 12/23-29 | 12/30-31 | 1/2/06 | BCS Bowls 1/2-4/06
Fort Worth Bowl
The Jayhawks played well down the stretch and that should transfer into a bowl game victory. Kansas won three of their final four games of the regular season, including wins over Nebraska (the first in 36 years) and Iowa State, denying the Hawkeyes a trip to the Big 12 championship game. Sandwiched in between those wins was a thumping by Texas - which is not a knock, since the Longhorns are playing for the national title - and prior to that a shutdown 13-3 win over neighboring Missouri and their potent offense.
Kansas has the ingredients on defense needed to win and just enough offense to be competitive.
Houston finished the season at 6-5, same as Kansas, though they did it against lower quality opposition. Playing in Conference USA, where they compiled a 4-4 record, doesn't exactly inspire confidence. The Cougars are an unpredictable bunch. Their longest winning streak of the season was 2 games, and they didn't lose two in a row. They are currently on the wrong end of a seven game W-L-W-L-W-L-W string, so another L would fit nicely.
Other than a 41-40 loss to UTEP, the Cougars scored between 20 and 35 points in their other 10 games, and allowed between a low of 10 and a high of 38 (at home vs. Oregon, 1st game of season). Generally, their game scores are in the 20s to low 30s.
This could be pretty close, so watch the line movement.
PREDICTION: Jayhawks 27 Cougars 21
Hawaii Bowl
The coaches of these teams - George O'Leary of UCF and Chris Ault of Nevada - each were named coach of the year in their respective conferences, Conference USA and the WAC, because neither team was expected to finish as well as they did.
The UCF Golden Knights captured the Eastern Division title in their conference and went on to lose the championship game to Tulsa, 44-27. The Nevada Wolf Pack earned a share of the WAC title by beating Fresno State in their final game of the season, tying them with Boise State at 71 in the conference.
Nevada was 8-3 overall, UCF, 8-4, and both teams are known more for offense than defense, especially Nevada. The Wolf Pack tallied 30 or more points in all seven of their wins down the stretch - in which their only loss was at WAC co-champion Boise State - rolling up 62 against Idaho, 38 against Hawaii and Fresno St. and 48 at New Mexico State. The Nevada offense is good for 433 yards per game, which should be enough to roll to victory over the relatively youthful Golden Knights, who, despite their positive record, were actually outgained on the season by opponents by 15 yards per game. Seven of their eight wins have come by 10 or less.
The only proper thing to do is sit back and watch the fireworks with an OVER play as both teams can light it up pretty well. Since I have to pick somebody, I'll tentatively take Nevada, only because I like Las Vegas better than Disneyworld.
PREDICTION: Wolf Pack 41 Golden Knights 35
Motor City Bowl
Memphis running back DeAngelo Williams is a three-time Conference USA player of the year and the NCAA's career leader in all-purpose yards at 7,337. Williams ranked 2nd in the country with 1,726 rushing yards this season, inside an offense that averaged 260.8 yards per game on the ground.
Memphis (6-5), under coach Tommy West, joins five other C-USA teams in bowl action, and looks to make up for last year's 52-35 GMAC Bowl loss to another MAC team, Bowling Green.
The Akron Zips (7-5) will be making their first ever appearance in a bowl game. They earned their way in with a 31-30 win over Northern Illinois in the MAC champiship on Dec. 1, a solid offensive team whom they beat twice. Coach J.D. Brookhart's squad has won three straight and 4 of its last 5, and boasts the 23rd-ranked defense in the nation, allowing 325.2 yards per game, which should be enough to slow down Williams and the Memphis offense.
Akron also has its fair share of offensive weapons, especially wide receiver Domenik Hixon, who was 3rd nationally with 2,037 all-purpose yards. Additionally, power back Brett Biggs rushed for 1,184 yards and 10 TDs, and QB Luke Getsy threw for 3,000 yards and 19 TDs.
Look for Akron to confuse the Memphis defense, which allowed 37 points or more in three of their losses, with a myriad of confusing sets and formations and cruise to an upset win.
PREDICTION: Zips 34 Tigers 24
Champs Sports Bowl
Clemson had an impressive season in one of college football's toughest conferences, the ACC, where they finished 4-4 with an 7-4 record overall. Those four losses came by a total of just 11 points. The Tigers lost to Miami by a field goal in overtime, Boston College by three, at Wake Forest by 4 and by a 10-9 score at Georgia Tech. After that narrow loss to Georgia Tech, the Tigers won their last three, over Duke, Florida State and at South Carolina, a rough-and-tumble rivalry game. A break here or there and Clemson could easily have been in a BCS game.
Clemson's success is difficult to pinpoint, but at the least, they have a balanced attack offensively and play defense with determination and smarts. Everything seemed to come together for them down the stretch as they won 5 of their last six.
The Colorado Buffaloes were cruising toward the Big 12 North Division title with a 7-2 record (5-1 in conference) until the wheels fell off in their final two games, losing to Iowa State and Nebraska, the latter of which was an embarrassing 30-3 thumping at home. While the Buffaloes still did make the Big 12 Championship game after Kansas bumped off Iowa State in the last week of the regular season, they backed in and got whacked by Texas, 70-3.
Contrary to what Clemson has been doing, Colorado is playing their worst football of the year and if they play anything like that, this game won't be close. Clemson should put another shellacking on the Buffaloes, notching a first win in the post-season for the ACC.
PREDICTION: Tigers 31 Buffaloes 13
Insight Bowl
This game is a coastal match up, pitting the PAC-10 against the Big East. The Rutgers Scarlet Knights were one of the early "designer" picks to win the Big East once Louisville lost early on to South Florida, but Rutgers failed to capitalize, losing to the three teams that dominated the conference, West Virginia, South Florida and Louisville in games that were fairly lopsided.
Rutgers has the look of a program that is improving, but just not quite ready for serious competition.
Arizona State was ranked early in the season, but lost each game against ranked opposition and finished the season with a ho-hum 6-5 record, which included losses to ranked teams, LSU, USC, Oregon, UCLA and unranked Stanford. The Sun Devils bring a predominant passing attack to the game, and a defense which allowed the most yards in the PAC-10 (over 5000) at a shocking rate of 463 per contest. For Arizona State to win this game, their defense is going to have to make more plays than usual because Rutgers finished behind only Louisville in the Big East offensively and are equally adept at both passing and rushing, especially with the dual backs Raymell Rice and Brian Leonard who combined for over 1700 rushing yards this season.
This one ought to be close and high-scoring. If Rutgers gets a lead, they may be able to hold off the Sun Devils and pull off the upset.
PREDICTION: Sun Devils 38 Scarlet Knights 35
MPC Computers Bowl
Boise State managed a tie for the WAC title with Nevada when the Wolf pack knocked off Fresno State in the regular season finale. The Broncos could reasonably be declared the conference champion, having knocked off Nevada by a 49-14 score. Their only conference loss was to Fresno State and their other two losses were the first two games of the season, when they were pounded in their opener, 48-13, at Georgia, and then lost a close one, 30-27, to Oregon State. Since then, they went 9-1, winning most of their games - and especially those played at home - handily.
The Broncos can light it up offensively; their 37.3 ppg is good for 8th in the nation, and they do it with balance, having amassed over 2500 yards on the ground and through the air.
Statistically, Boston College doesn't quite match up, although they played their first season in the much tougher ACC. The Eagles had an eventful season, finishing a very respectable 8-3, and losing only to Florida State, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Boston College is playing in a bowl game for the 7th straight season, but they will be at a distinct disadvantage, as this game will be played on the Blue Turf of Bronco Stadium, Boise State's home field, where they have won 31 straight, the longest current home winning streak in the nation.
What may play in Boston College's favor is their 9th-ranked defense, which allowed only 15.5 points per game. If Boise is going to score much, they'll have to do most of it through the air as the Eagles allow less than 100 yards per contest and they've played some teams with quality running games.
As much as home field will play into the hands of the Boise State faithful, BC is probably the best team they've seen at home in a while and the Eagles have just enough offense and defensive ability to keep the score down to a reasonable level and hold on for a win.
PREDICTION: Eagles 28 Broncos 26
Alamo Bowl
This could be one of the more exciting games of the bowl season, as either or both of these teams could be challenging for a national championship within the next two years if recruiting continues well and neither suffer coaching problems or off-field distractions.
Both the Cornhuskers and Wolverines finished with identical 7-4 records, though Michigan's losses were against ostensibly better teams - Notre Dame, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Minnesota - all playing in bowl games. The Wolverines were also the only team to beat Big 10 champ Penn State - on a last second touchdown. Michigan's largest margin of defeat was by 7 to Notre Dame and two of their losses were by 3 points, so they are capable of playing with anybody. On the other hand, Michigan is a team which seems to play to the level of the competition, as their only big wins came against Northwestern (33-17) and Indiana (41-14).
The best weapons for Michigan are their defense and balanced offense, which, when running back Mike Hart is healthy, can grind out first downs with precision efficiency. QB Chad Henne has gained needed experience this season and has a trio of talented receivers in Jason Avant, Steve Breaston and the emerging Mario Manningham, who combined for over 1600 yards in receptions this season.
Nebraska is finishing their second season under coach Bill Callahan with a flourish, winning their final two games, including a dominating 30-3 win over Big 12 North division champion Colorado in their final game. The 'Husker's West Coast offense is engineered by JUCO transfer QB Zak Taylor, who threw for nearly 2500 yards but was sacked 33 times this season.
Both teams are suspect against the pass, but especially Michigan, which allowed a completion percentage of 58 in its 2005 games, giving up an average of 211 yards per contest. Nebraska also holds an edge over the Wolverines in rushing defense, but the Cornhuskers don't run the ball that well, averaging only 2.6 yards per rushing attempt.
This game will likely come down to preparation, turnovers and which team can establish defensive superiority. That said, Michigan will have trouble shutting down the Nebraska offense for the duration, but may end up the victor in another squeaker.
PREDICTION: Wolverines 34 Cornhuskers 31
Unranked Utah finished in a tie for 4th place in the Mountain West Conference with a 4-4 record, but defeated BYU in their final game of the season to improve their overall record to 6-5 and qualify for a bowl game. Unfortunately for them, they will be facing one of the better teams from the ACC, Georgia Tech, which comes in to the game with a 7-4 record and a penchant for defense.
The Yellow Jackets were competitive in all of their games except the 51-7 blowout loss at Virginia Tech. The teams they lost to are all playing in bowl games this winter, and they scored impressive wins over Miami, Auburn and Clemson.
Tech also can score points, and may put up their highest point total of the season against the Utes. QB Reggie Ball teams in the backfield with effective runners P. J. Daniels and Tashard Choice. Ball also can throw to Damarius Bilbo or Calvin Johnson, his talented pair of receivers who combined for over 1300 yards this season.
The Utes like to spread it out on offense, but primarily are a passing team. QB Brian Johnson threw for 2892 yards and running back Quinton Gather, who averaged an even 100 rushing yards per game, provides balance.
This game looks like a classic mismatch, as Georgia Tech allows only 51% completions, which spells trouble for Utah's pass-happy offense.
PREDICTION: Yellow Jackets 34 Utes 17
Holiday Bowl
The Sooners got their season together after a shaky 2-3 start, winning five of their last six and losing that one game by 2 points to Texas Tech, so don't count them out here. The other three Sooner losses were to TCU, UCLA and Texas, and while Oregon lost only one time, it was to USC.
The Ducks won three games against previously ranked teams - Fresno State, Arizona State and Cal and operate one of the most potent offenses in the country, clicking for more than 36 points per game. Even though their defense is seldom considered a strength, Oregon allowed fewer points per game than the Sooners, though they gave up more yardage.
Oklahoma can win this game only if it controls the clock with superstar running back Adrian Peterson and plays above their heads on pass defense. The more likely outcome is that the Ducks come out throwing and establish a lead, keeping the Sooners off balance and playing catch up, which is not their game.
Scoring shouldn't be much of a problem for either team, especially in Oregon's case. One caveat is that the Sooners have never lost to Oregon, beating them five times in Norman, OK.
PREDICTION: Ducks 34 Sooners 28
DISCLAIMER: Fearless Rick's College Football Picks offers pre-game analysis on select college football games during the regular and post season. While Las Vegas lines are presented in parentheses, they are for reference purposes only, indicating the relative strengths and weaknesses of teams and the predicted total score.
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