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Fearless Rick's College Football Bowl Game Picks Games of 12/30 - 12/31 Rick Gagliano | 12/28/05
Games of 12/20-22 | 12/23-29 | 12/30-31 | 1/2/06 | BCS Bowls 1/2-4/06
Related: Top 25 Rankings | Results and Conference Scoreboard
Music City Bowl
Battle of two unranked teams pits the ACC vs. the Big 10. At 7-4, Minnesota has the look of a team just a notch below the elite, as they lost lopsided games to Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa, and a close one (where they blew a 34-24 lead) to Wisconsin. Somewhere in there, the Golden Gophers beat Michigan, which amounted to their biggest win of the season.
In their four losses, Minnesota allowed a whopping 179 points (nearly 45 per game), so defense is not their forte. Offensively, the Gophers like to run the football, and after that, run it some more. They have the 2nd ranked rushing offense in the country, behind only the Navy Midshipmen, amassing a stunning 279.9 yards per game. That's what the Virginia defense will have to stop.
The Cavaliers were looking good at 6-3, but lost their final two games of the season, to Virginia Tech and Miami, two ACC powerhouses, but they were less-than-impressive in their other wins, which included victories over Florida State and Georgia Tech. Other than that, their wins came against sub-par opponents Syracuse, Duke, Temple and Western Michigan. There really isn't much to get excited about in the Cavaliers. Their offense is pretty standard and their defense suffers long lapses and has come unglued a few times this season.
Minnesota should be able to smother Virginia with their big offensive line and tandem of backs, Laurance Maroney and Gary Russell (both of whom gained over 1000 yards on the ground) and win this one going away.
PREDICTION: Golden Gophers 38 Cavaliers 28
Sun Bowl
Strap on your seat belts for this match up between the PAC-10 and Big 10, because it should be a wild ride featuring two of the best offenses in the country head-to-head.
The headline and the O/U line suggests one of the highest-scoring game of the bowl season, and it may turn out exactly as planned, as there's little doubt that there will be plenty of highlight-reel footage to go around.
Both offenses are in the Top 10 in a variety of offensive categories and can light up the scoreboard in any venue. UCLA is ranked 7th nationally in scoring at 38.1 per game, while Northwestern is further down the list, at 31.8.
While those figures add up to just a shade under 70 points, one has to consider that both teams will be facing defenses that are among the worst in the country statistically. The Wildcats rank dead last in yards allowed at 482.9 per game and the Bruins check in at 7th-worst at 457.5 per game. This game could easily result in 1200 yards of total offense and both teams scoring more than 40 points.
In their 9 wins, UCLA notched more than 40, and also allowed 52 and 66 in their losses to Arizona and USC. Northwestern was not nearly as prolific, tallying 40+ only twice, though they did run up 38 on three different occasions. The average opponent's score in their 4 losses was 44.3 points. Clearly, the losing team is going to allow a boatload of points, probably in the range of 55-60.
The teams play in radically different conferences, but there's little doubt that the UCLA offense, led by QB Drew Olson and running back Maurice Drew will put up at least 7 TDs.
The teams share one common opponent, Arizona State. The Sun Devils beat the Wildcats 52-21 in Arizona, while the Bruins beat them 45-35 at home. Edge to the Bruins in a wild one.
PREDICTION: Bruins 55 Wildcats 41
Simply put, Steve Spurrier is one of the greatest college football coaches of all time. When his Gamecocks began the season 2-3 (those losses came at the hands of Georgia, Alabama and Auburn), Spurrier rallied his kids and won five straight, including a whopper of a win over his old team, the Florida Gators. Though they lost their season finale to in-state rival Clemson, 13-9, they finished with a 7-4 record and coach Spurrier was named SEC coach of the year.
The combined records of the teams South Carolina lost to is impressive: 37-10. Missouri (6-5) lost to teams with a combined record of 36-22, which included 11-0 Texas. Without the Longhorns in the mix, they lost 4 games to teams with a combined 25-22 record. Big difference.
Missouri's games against high-quality competition, Texas and Colorado, resulted in lopsided losses, 51-20 and 41-12, respectively. In their favor, they did beat Nebraska, 41-24 and Iowa State, 27-24. The Mizzou gets a statistical edge offensively, averaging 423 yards per game to South Carolina's 307.5, while the Gamecocks hold a defensive advantage, allowing 22 points per outing to Missouri's 29.
But this game really comes down to the level of competition. Match up Clemson, Auburn, Georgia and Alabama (teams that beat SC) against Kansas State, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico (teams that beat Missouri) and you'll have maybe one good game in the bunch. In fact, we may have already seen that one good one, when Clemson beat Colorado in the Champs Sports Bowl, 19-10. It's safe to say that South Carolina will be completely jacked for this game and win it by stopping the main weapon of the Tigers, quarterback Brad Smith (over 2000 yards passing and 1151 rushing), and scoring against a suspect defense.
Spurrier's secret is easy to discern: fundamentals, discipline and execution. The Gamecocks will put all of that on display here.
PREDICTION: Gamecocks 31 Tigers 17
Peach Bowl
This game really should live up to it's namesake and be a real peach. Both Miami and LSU were ranked at one time or another in the top five nationally, and despite losing big games late in the season, have solid programs capable of beating just about anybody.
The 9-2 Hurricanes did most of their damage in the ACC and elsewhere with their shut-down defense, which allowed 17 points or less in all of their games except a 33-30 overtime win at Clemson. Their two losses were to Florida State, a heartbreaking 10-7 road loss in the season opener, and a shocking 14-10 home loss to Georgia Tech. A mere seven points separated Miami from a serious shot at the national championship.
LSU followed a somewhat similar path. The Tigers lost their second game of the season to Tennessee, blowing a 21-0 half time lead, losing in OT, 30-27. After that, they ran off 9 straight wins before getting whacked by Georgia in the SEC Championship. That game uncovered some of the Tigers' weaknesses, including poor pass protection on deep routes and a spotty passing game when they get behind.
Of course, the Tigers were playing against one of the best defensive teams in the country, so losing to Georgia should not be considered a big negative. Plus, Miami isn't exactly the most efficient offense around, though they have improved as the season progressed.
LSU's defense isn't far behind Miami's. The Hurricanes allowed 252 ypg and 11.9 points per game, 2nd best in the nation. LSU checks in with 276 yards allowed and 15.2 points allowed per game. On offense, it's just about even, with a slight edge to the Hurricanes again. Miami averages 29.3 ppg and 371.3 ypg to LSU's 28.6 and 366.3.
Weighing all of the diverse factors, LSU should give Miami a real tussle and possibly upset them.
PREDICTION: Tigers 17 Hurricanes 16
Meineke Car Care Bowl
The last day of 2005 kicks off early with a somewhat questionable game. The South Florida Bulls main claim to fame was their upset win over Louisville (45-14) early in the season. Other than that, they didn't fare well, even against a somewhat weak Big East slate of teams. While the Bulls did beat the likes of Syracuse and Cincinnati, they lost important games to Pitt, Connecticut and West Virginia. Their 6-5 record belies the kind of team they are: OK on both sides of the ball, but nothing too exciting.
NC State began their season going 2-4, but turned it around in the second half of the year, winning 4 of their last 5, including wins over Florida State and Maryland. There wasn't much of a difference between the two halves of the season for the Wolfpack, except possibly the teams they were playing. Three of those first four losses were to the likes of Virginia Tech (20-16), North Carolina (31-24) and Clemson (31-10). Along the way, they managed an upset win at Georgia tech, 17-14.
They also got better play from their defense, which allowed an average of 15.8 points per game in their final five. The offense also got a boost from freshman running back Andre Brown, who gained 574 yards rushing after he became the feature back in those last five games.
Adding to the positives for the Wolfpack is that they will be playing in front of a very partisan crown in Charlotte and will be looking to put on a good show for their fans.
PREDICTION: Wolfpack 28 Bulls 14
Liberty Bowl
Fresno State had an eventful season which included a near-upset of the top-ranked USC Trojans, followed by consecutive losses to conference rivals Nevada and Louisiana Tech. Early in the season, they also lost a squeaker to Oregon, 37-34. The main problem for the 7-4 Bulldogs can be summed up in one word: defense. They simply don't have one. In those four losses, they allowed, 50, 40, 38 and 37 points. That simply will not get it done against quality teams.
The Golden Hurricane of Tulsa finished with a flourish, winning the Conference USA championship over UCF, 44-27 after finishing their conference play at 6-2. Their two conference losses were by 3 to UTEP and by 7 to Houston. They began the season at 0-2, losing to Minnesota and Oklahoma by wide margins.
Both of these squads lost games to quality teams, can really light up the scoreboard and don't offer much resistance on defense. This shapes up as a real shoot-out which can easily turn Tulsa's way. Fresno State had it's sights set on a BCS bowl, but wound up not even winning their conference title and may be a bit under prepared coming into this game.
Since the Bulldogs are currently on a three-game skid, losing a 4th in a row wouldn't be much of a surprise.
PREDICTION: Golden Hurricane 48 Bulldogs 34
Houston Bowl
Iowa State had an opportunity to win the Big 12 North, but failed against a determined Kansas squad in their season finale.
While the opportunity to get trampled by the Texas Longhorns may not have been the most appetizing, the Cyclones couldn't muster enough energy in their biggest game and one wonders how motivated they will be against the 10-1 Horned Frogs, winners of the Mountain West conference.
TCU had an outstanding season, beginning by knocking off Oklahoma in Norman, 17-10, and surviving close calls against Utah, BYU and San Diego State. Their only defeat was a completely unexpected loss at SMU, coming the week after the Oklahoma win, so it could have been a case of overconfidence or unpreparedness.
Whatever the case, with that lesson learned, TCU didn't lose again and can complete one of the most successful season in a rich school history. They led the nation in interceptions with 24 and will press the Iowa offense all day.
PREDICTION: Horned Frogs 27 Cyclones 17
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DISCLAIMER: Fearless Rick's College Football Picks offers pre-game analysis on select college football games during the regular and post season. While Las Vegas lines are presented in parentheses, they are for reference purposes only, indicating the relative strengths and weaknesses of teams and the predicted total score.
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