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Fearless Rick's College Football Bowl Game Picks Games of 1/2/06 Rick Gagliano | 12/26/05
Games of 12/20-22 | 12/23-29 | 12/30-31 | 1/2/06 | BCS Bowls 1/2-4/06
Related: Top 25 Rankings | Results and Conference Scoreboard
Cotton Bowl
If there are two teams further apart philosophically, you'd be hard pressed to find them. The Red Raiders have the top ranked passing offense in the nation at 403.6 yards per game; Alabama has the #1 scoring defense allowing only 10.7 points per game, is 2nd in total defense (248.4 ypg) and third in pass defense (154.8).
So, how does one pick a winner here? If Tech finds early success, the Crimson Tide offense, which depends largely on the running of Kenneth Darby and precision passing of Brodie Croyle, may not find the Texas Tech defense very accommodating. The Red Raiders are no slouches there, allowing 19 points per game and 328.2 yards on average. On the flip side, should Alabama dominate defensively their offense may not score much. They averaged only 22.7 points and 353.4 yards, though much of that was against some very tough SEC defenses.
The Red Raiders average over 42 points per contest, but in their two losses - to Oklahoma State (go figure!) and Texas - they tallied only 17 in each. They can be defended, however, as demonstrated in games against Big 12 opponents. Baylor held them to 28, but lost. Oklahoma held them to 23 and also lost, and they only scored 30 and 34 in wins over Kansas and Nebraska. In their three out of conference games, the Red Raiders outscored the opposition by a combined 199-31. That's impressive, but it does skew the numbers drastically.
Alabama's only two losses came in the final two games of their season. Following a 3-point defeat to LSU, the Tide traveled to Auburn and were demolished early on and never recovered, losing 28-18. Those 28 points were the most the defense allowed all season. In their 9 wins, Alabama allowed more than 14 points only once while holding three teams - Florida, Tennessee and Utah State to only 3. It's hard to imagine that the Red Raiders will score more than 21 against such an awesome defensive unit. The Gators have only allowed 13 TDs all season.
This game will hinge on turnovers, special teams and coaching. Look for the Crimson Tide defense to play their best game of the season, and get a few picks. Also, coach Shula may have a few tricks up his sleeve for the Techies. A few of them may involve freshman Jimmy Johns, who may just be the secret weapon Alabama needs.
PREDICTION: Crimson Tide 24 Red Raiders 17
Outback Bowl
It's hard to imagine a more lopsided game than this, and one has to wonder what the organizers were thinking when they chose Iowa to play an SEC team that's on the verge of exploding - in a good way. Though the line on this game indicates a close game, the Florida Gators demonstrated what kind of team they really are in their 34-7 romp over rival Florida State.
Sure, the Gators got hammered by Alabama back on October 1, and they lost to LSU and South Carolina, but those are all tough SEC foes and all of those games were on the road. It's arguable that any of those teams could beat the Hawkeyes at a neutral site.
Taking a look at the defensive stats - and that's how you beat Florida, with a solid defense - Alabama, the top rated defense in the country, allowed 248.4 yards per game. LSU gives up 276.3 and South Carolina 347.7. Iowa? 376.8.
And the Florida defense is among the best, as well. They rank #7, at 289.8 yards per game and they allow only 18.4 points per game. And mind you, that's against some of the best teams in the country.
Iowa comes close in points allowed at 19, but you have to consider the competition. Florida's out-of-conference foes were Louisiana Tech (who beat Fresno State), Florida State and Wyoming. Iowa matched up against Ball State, Northern Iowa and Iowa State. and they lost badly, 23-3, to Iowa State.
Statistically, Iowa seems to have a big edge on offense, gaining 434.5 yards per game and scoring at a 30.5 clip. Florida averaged 366.7 and 28.4. Again, consider the competition. Iowa put up 56 points and over 400 yards against Ball State, and let's not forget the Hawkeye's implosion against Northwestern - a team featuring the worst defense in the country. In that 28-27 loss, the Hawkeyes squandered a 27-14 4th quarter lead while running up 549 yards of offense.
Sure, Drew Tate is a good QB and he'll toss it around, but the Florida athletes are stronger, faster and just plain better. The Gators will just chew these guys up.
PREDICTION: Gators 38 Hawkeyes 17
Virginia Tech is like the poor stepchild who never seems to get invited to the big dance. Seemingly every year, the Hokies start off with a bang, win 7 or 8 straight, get ranked in the top 5 and then lose to either Miami, Florida State or Virginia. This year, those two teams from Florida did them in. Miami beat the Hokies badly on their own turf, 27-7. Then, in the ACC Championship game, Florida State dumped them again, 27-22, in a game that was tied 3-3 at the half, but broken open by Florida State in the third quarter. The final score doesn't really show how one-sided it was. The Seminoles were up 27-3 before Virginia Tech knew what hit them.
The 27 points allowed in those two games were by far the most the Hokies allowed all season. No other team scored more than 17 in their 10 wins, which included two shutouts. The Hokies have arguably the best defense in the country, allowing only 239 yards per game (#1) and an even 12 points per outing (#3). One has to go far down the list to find the Louisville Cardinals. They allow 318 yards per game and 22.7 points.
Offensively, Louisville is the third-highest scoring team in the land, averaging 45.2, behind only Texas and USC. The Hokies are not far behind, at 33.8, and that was against better competition than what Louisville faced in the depleted Big East. Louisville put up impressive numbers compiling a 9-2 record along the way. Other than their 45-14 loss to South Florida, they were solid, if not overwhelming. They lost a huge game at West Virginia, 46-44, which cost them the Big East title and an automatic BCS bid, but otherwise dominated, scoring 42 or more in 7 of their 9 wins.
What this game boils down to, unfortunately is one key injury. Cardinals' QB Brian Brohm suffered a season-ending injury in their 41-17 win over Syracuse November 26. Freshman Hunter Cantwell will make his second start after leading Louisville to a 30-20 win in their season finale at Connecticut.
On the other side of the ball, the Hokies starting QB is one Marcus Vick, who looks a lot like his older brother and also got some Heisman consideration this year. There's the difference in what should be a Hokie runaway.
PREDICTION: Hokies 38 Cardinals 20
Capital Bowl
Auburn (9-2) may be the best football team in the country right now. They were easily the top scoring team in the SEC, at 32.4 points per game, and they rank sixth in the country in scoring defense at 14.7.
Wisconsin scores at a 35 points per game clip, but allows 24.9 points and 432.5 yards per game. While the Badgers lost key games to Northwestern, Penn State and Iowa, they won 9 others, including a 23-20 win over Michigan. They did not face Ohio State in the Big 10, and finished third in the conference with a 5-3 record.
The Tigers lost their opener to Georgia Tech, 23-14, and a 20-17 overtime decision to LSU, when kicker John Vaughn missed a 39-yard filed goal attempt. Other than their 31-30 thriller over SEC champion Georgia, no other team got within 10 points of them, that being Alabama, in a 28-18 Auburn win in which the Tigers once led 21-0.
Their average margin of victory in their other 7 wins was a whopping 22 points.
Wisconsin is a good team, but Auburn is a great team that plays with poise and intensity. This won't be pretty for the Badger faithful.
PREDICTION: Tigers 38 Badgers 21
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DISCLAIMER: Fearless Rick's College Football Picks offers pre-game analysis on select college football games during the regular and post season. While Las Vegas lines are presented in parentheses, they are for reference purposes only, indicating the relative strengths and weaknesses of teams and the predicted total score.
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