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Fearless Rick's College Football Bowl Game Picks BCS Bowl Games of 1/2/06 - 1/4/06 Rick Gagliano | 12/26/05
Games of 12/20-22 | 12/23-29 | 12/30-31 | 1/2/06 | BCS Bowls 1/2-4/06
Related: Top 25 Rankings | Results and Conference Scoreboard
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Notre Dame surprised most experts (they were not even ranked in most pre-season polls) by winning early and often in their first year under head coach Charlie Weis. Their October 15 loss to USC (34-31) was arguably the best game of the college football season and was Notre Dame's 2nd loss (the other was in overtime to Michigan State) against 9 wins.
Since that USC game, the Irish reeled off five straight wins and heads into the Fiesta Bowl with one of the best offensive teams in the nation, scoring at a 38.2 points per game pace.
They will be up against one of the nation's top defensive teams in Ohio State.
The Buckeyes also finished 9-2, shared the Big Ten title with Penn State at 7-1 and fell short against only Texas and Penn State, teams that between them have lost only one game - and that one was a last-second loss by the Nittany Lions at Michigan. The Buckeyes lost to Texas, 25-22, way back in September, in another game that ranks as one of the best of the year. Their other loss was at Penn State, a 17-10 loss in which the Buckeyes could not garner any offensive momentum.
Between the two teams, a total of 16 points kept them both from undefeated seasons, so this is - besides the Rose Bowl - the best of the BCS games.
Since their October 8 loss to Penn State, Ohio State ran the table, overpowering opponents in six straight wins, including victories over Wisconsin, Minnesota and arch-rival Michigan.
On average, Ohio State allowed 275.3 yards and gained 404.6 per game, while the Irish rang up 489.1 yards offensively and allowed 376.9 to opponents. Obviously, something's got to give - either the Notre Dame offense or the Buckeye defense, but considering how efficient both teams are in those disciplines, it's tough to give either an edge.
Though the Irish have not faced a defense this solid, the Buckeyes have seen their share of good offensive teams - Texas, Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern and Michigan State, all of which averaged over 30 points per game. They won four of those games handily and should be able to hold the Irish to one of their lowest point totals of the season by stuffing the run (Ohio State only gives up 74.5 yards rushing per game) and forcing the Irish into obvious passing situations.
Ohio State will have to grind out yards and create opportunities for their offense. That and special teams play will keep this game relatively close.
PREDICTION: Buckeyes 31 Irish 24
Nokia Sugar Bowl
Nobody expected the Mountaineers to be in a BCS bowl game, but they won every big game they had, and despite being dismissed by the polls (currently 11th), they are the Big East champions and received an automatic bid.
What West Virginia brings to this game is a versatile defense and an offense that continued to improve over the season. They averaged 31.5 points and 378.6 yards (most of that on the ground) per game.
Georgia has similar offensive numbers - 29.1 and 482 - and may be just the tiniest bit better defensively. The Bulldogs allowed only 14.6 points and 297.8 yards per game in the tough SEC, while the Mountaineers averaged 16.3 and 293.5. By any standard, both of these programs are Top 10 defensive units and this should be a low-scoring game.
If there's any advantage here, it's likely to be Georgia's inability to stop the run consistently. West Virginia has confused opponents all year by alternating quarterbacks Pat White and Adam Bednarik. White runs the option effectively, while Bednarik is more a drop-back passer, though either one can do just about anything in the wide open offense. The one constant is running back Steve Slaton, who averaged 115 yards rushing per game. White finished the season with three straight 100+ yards rushing efforts.
When Georgia has the ball, senior D. J. Shockley can beat you with a variety of weapons. He threw for over 2300 yards and backs Thomas Brown and Danny Ware combined for more than 1100 yards on the ground. The Georgia offense is most dangerous when throwing the ball, however, as they have four quality receivers who can burn any defense. That poses a problem for West Virginia, as their secondary allowed 96 first downs via the air.
Georgia is a deep, experienced team playing a very youthful squad from West Virginia (both White and Slaton are freshmen). Where Georgia is big, the Mountaineers are fast. West Virginia is one of only three teams - along with Penn State and TCU - with just one loss (to Virginia Tech, 34-17), while Georgia lost just twice - to Florida (14-10) and Auburn (31-30) in consecutive weeks. They won the SEC championship with a huge 34-14 effort over LSU.
On the surface, Georgia has an edge with their experience and the toughness of the SEC schedule, but West Virginia has answered every challenge and should be given respect. I'll go out on a limb and take the Mountaineers to pull off the upset.
PREDICTION: Mountaineers 23 Bulldogs 20
The Seminoles played a very rugged schedule and lost some games they shouldn't have - notably, to Virginia, North Carolina State and Clemson - but pulled themselves together after a hard loss to Florida (34-7) and beat up on Virginia Tech to win the ACC Championship game, 27-22, and get the automatic BCS bowl bid.
Despite their 4 losses, Florida State is a high quality team and everything starts with their defense, which, when at the top of their game, can stop anything that moves through the air or on the ground. What is a problem for the Seminoles is too much dependence on athletic ability rather than discipline, especially in the secondary. While their corners and safeties can cover and run with anyone, they have been burned by being out of position at numerous times this season.
Probably the biggest problem for Florida State's defense, however, is their inconsistent offense, which regularly couldn't move effectively and also turned the ball over too often (quarterback Drew Weatherford threw 17 TDs and 17 INTs). The typical effort won't get it done against Penn State, so the defense must step up.
The Nittany Lions literally came within one second of a perfect season, losing on a last-second touchdown on 4th and goal at Michigan on October 15. Other than that loss, only Northwestern (34-29) and Ohio State (14-7) came anywhere close to beating them, as Joe Paterno's bunch rang up a 10-1 record and shared the Big 10 title with Ohio State.
While both of these teams are equally adept on the defensive side of the ball, the Penn State offense is relentless, balancing the run and pass better than any team in the country. The Nittany Lions ran for 2415 yards and passed for 2252, averaging 424.3 yards and 35.2 points per game. By contrast, Florida State was dependent primarily on the pass, gaining nearly three times the yardage via the air as opposed to rushing. They average 100 yards per game on the ground, whereas Penn State runners click for more than 210.
There's a huge advantage in this game and it's Penn State's balanced offense and a defense that will be able to concentrate on stopping the Seminole air attack. That may add up to a real scalping by Penn State and another highlight in Joe Paterno's storied coaching career.
PREDICTION: Nittany Lions 38 Seminoles 20
Citi Rose Bowl
Back around November 15, the line in Las Vegas, before this game was a sure thing, was USC -6 1/2. I believe that was more representative of how the national championship game would be bet. The line, once the BCS made the Rose Bowl the official venue for the matchup between #1 USC and #2 Texas (here at Downtown Magazine Texas has been #1 since early November) went out at USC -7 and quickly moved to -7 1/2 and hasn't budged in three weeks. My gut feeling is that if the line had been USC -4, it would have only moved to -4 1/2.
Bottom line is that Texas has at least as good a chance of winning this game as USC, therefore, the +7 1/2 points they are giving the Longhorns are either a really late Christmas present or an absurdly early one.
There are plenty of ways to measure this game, but here's the best way. Texas went into Ohio State in September and won the game by three points. Granted, the Buckeyes might be a better team now than they were then, but on January 2, Ohio State busted up the same team, Notre Dame, that the Trojans beat by three at South Bend. Ohio State beat the Irish pretty badly in the Fiesta Bowl, 34-20.
In that Ohio State game, Vince Young and his Texas teammates showed the kind of grit and determination to make it all the way to the Rose Bowl. Ohio State had one of the best defenses in the country and the Longhorns got out of Columbus with a win. And maybe the Longhorns are now even better than they were then.
What this comparison does is point out one very important fact. Teams without adequate defenses do not win big games. Offense is vital, to be sure, but those big stops are what makes champions. Look at what happened in the Fiesta Bowl. Notre Dame scored on their first possession and then didn't score again until the beginning of the third quarter. By then, the game was firmly in control of the Buckeyes, both offensively and defensively.
Notre Dame's defense was suspect coming into the Fiesta Bowl and it proved to be their undoing as much as Ohio State's dominance on defense. The Buckeyes scored and stopped the Irish repeatedly. Expect the same from USC. The Longhorns will stop Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart enough times to shorten the game, win field position and give the ball to their offense. And when Texas has the ball, they will be very difficult for USC to contain.
In that September game in Columbus, the Longhorns scored 25 against the Buckeyes' solid defense, while allowing only 22. I'd say it's a safe bet that they'll score at least 40 (only Ohio State held them to less than 40) and allow no more than 35 (high scores against Texas were Texas A & M - 29; Oklahoma St. - 28; Ohio State - 22). USC can't stop them, and the Longhorns can only stop the Trojans occasionally. That's why there will be plenty of scoring to go around, but the Longhorns will wrest the national championship from USC's grasp.
PREDICTION: Longhorns 45 Trojans 35
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DISCLAIMER: Fearless Rick's College Football Picks offers pre-game analysis on select college football games during the regular and post season. While Las Vegas lines are presented in parentheses, they are for reference purposes only, indicating the relative strengths and weaknesses of teams and the predicted total score.
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