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NCAA College Football 2006 Week 10 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NCAA College Football Week 10 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 10/31/06
For games of 11/2-4/06
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
Thursday, November 2, 2006
7:30 pm West Virginia at Louisville (-1 1/2, 51) - The biggest game of the week is also the first. Both of these Big East rivals are 7-0 and seeking a shot at the season finale, the BCS National Championship on January 8 in Glendale, Arizona (incidentally, the same site as the Fiesta Bowl on January 1), so the bowl implications of this game are enormous.
One couldn't ask for a more even matchup. The Mountaineers are ranked #2 nationally in scoring offense at 40.9 ppg; Louisville is #5 (38.7); The Cardinals hold an edge in total yardage, ranked 2nd at 496.1 ypg, with WVa 4th at 459.3.
Defensively, it's virtually a tie, with Louisville 7th at 12.6 ppg and West Virginia 8th at 12.7.
Only Louisville has played a ranked team in 2006. On Sept. 16 the Cardinals put the bite on Miami in a 31-7 rout. The Mountaineers' best opponent to date was probably Maryland, whom they bested 45-24 on Sept. 14.
There's been one common opponent, Syracuse, whom the Mountaineers defeated at home, 41-17 on Oct. 14. A week later, the Cardinals played at Syracuse, registering a 28-13 win.
Against the Orangemen, WVa QB Pat White rushed 247 yards and four touchdowns, while RB Steve Slaton chipped in with 163 yards rushing and a TD. At Syracuse, Louisville QB Brian Brohm was 18 for 25 for 203 yards, though he was sacked twice and threw an interception and had no TD passes.
Brohm and the Cardinals struggled against Cincinnati a week earlier, squeezing out a 23-17 win in which the Bearcats had a scoring opportunity at the Louisville 22, in the game's closing seconds. Brohm was making his first start since a thumb injury caused him to miss two games. While he was 20-27 for 324 yards and a TD, he did throw a 4th quarter interception.
What stands out in this game is West Virginia's rushing offense, leading the nation at 319 yards per game. Nobody's come close to stopping it yet and though the Louisville defense is solid, the two-headed monster of White and Slaton gives the Mountaineers the winning edge.
Some commentators have wondered what the Mountaineers would look like offensively if White was forced into throwing situations, but the answer may already be clear. White has a 153.6 passer rating, completing 69% of his throws (64-93). He has however, thrown only 6 TDs to 5 INTs, but overall, he is a capable QB and has two dangerous receivers in Darius Reynaud and Brandon Myles.
The Mountaineers are going to leave the partisan home crowd disappointed as they roll towards January 8. Their offense is relentless and the defense underrated.
Prediction: Mountaineers 38 Cardinals 21
12:00 pm Maryland at Clemson (-16, 47) - Clemson suffered its second loss of the season, unexpectedly dropping a big game last Thursday night at Virginia Tech, 24-7. Prior to that, the Tigers' only other loss was at BC, 34-33, so they remain perfect at home.
The 5-2 Terps have had a very successful campaign thus far and are well-coached by Ralph Friedgen. Their only losses have been on the road, to West Virginia (42-24) and Georgia Tech (27-23), two of the best teams in the nation, so they don't figure to be a pushover here.
Maryland's stats won't surprise anyone and they've been overlooked in the ACC, but a win here would put them on the map. They've won their last three games - at Virginia, NC State and Florida St. - by a total of 11 points, and this one figures to be tight as well. Nothing surprises us in the ACC this season, so an upset here may be in the offing.
Prediction: Terrapins 24 Tigers 21
Credit Joe Paterno for the improvement on defense, as most great Penn State teams have been defense-first types. This week they will have to slow down the Wisconsin juggernaut, a balanced attack that churns out nearly 400 yards per game.
The Badgers have lost just once, a 27-13 decision at Michigan on Sept. 23. That game was closer than the score indicates, and even though they're at home, Wisconsin will not find many easy yards on Saturday. Look for Penn State to ruin the Badgers' BCS aspirations right here.
Prediction: Nittany Lions 19 Badgers 17
However, with both teams at 3-2 in the conference, this game is for the outright lead in the Big 12 North and a shot at the title game.
Mizzou, after a fast 6-0 start, has lost 2 of their last 3 and seems to have lost their way. And while Nebraska has lost 2 straight, one of those was a devastating loss to Texas which they should have won and the Ok St. loss probably was due somewhat to an emotional hangover from that game.
Look for the Cornhuskers to get back on track. Missouri won last year's meeting 41-24, but that was a home game for them and Nebraska has historically owned them in this series.
Prediction: Cornhuskers 30 Tigers 21
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
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