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NCAA College Football 2006 Week 11 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NCAA College Football Week 11 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 11/7/06
For games of 11/9-11/06
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
Thursday, November 9, 2006
7:30 pm Louisville (-6 1/2, 51 1/2) at Rutgers - I don't know if Louisville can get themselves up in such a short time for another big game, but I do know that the Cardinals won't put up 44 points on the Scarlet Knights like they did against West Virginia last Thursday.
Louisville may have won the game, but they lost on total yardage and won primarily due to Mountaineer mistakes (3 fumbles) and an overall absence of defense. Rutgers has quietly gone about the business of being 8-0, and they may be the most underrated program in the nation. They've defied the odds and confounded the pickers, especially in their last three, over Navy, Pitt and UConn, all easy wins.
Last season, Louisville won at home 56-5, but this year is different; it's at Rutgers and the Knights are ranked 2nd nationally in both scoring and yardage defense (9.1 and 227.4). Look out, this one's going to be wild!
Prediction: Scarlet Knights 33 Louisville 31
7:00 pm Western Michigan at Central Michigan (-5 1/2, 47) - Here come the Chippewas again, seeking to solidify their lead (5-0) in the Mid American West division. The Western Michigan Broncos are just a half game back at 5-1 and could overtake with a win here.
The Chippewas have the advantage of being at home, plus they boast a powerful offense behind QB Dan LeFevour and Ontario Sneed, who is averaging nearly 6 yards per carry and has caught 32 passes from his backfield position.
This game will be decided by how well Central can defense Western. The Broncos have struggled offensively at times, especially in their close calls against Northern Illinois (won 16-14) and Eastern Michigan (won 18-15). Should LeFevour get hot, Central could build a commanding lead and never look back.
Prediction: Chippewas 31 Broncos 17
12:30 pm Georgia at Auburn (-13, 41) - The Georgia story just keeps getting uglier by the week. Last Saturday they managed to lose to Kentucky and drop to 6-4 overall and 3-4 in conference. Auburn should be able to limit the Bulldogs to a very low point total, having done so against good offenses already this season. The Tigers need to get their offense - especially Kenny Irons - in gear, and while that may not be easy against Georgia, the Tigers have owned most teams in the second half.
Auburn will physically wear down the Bulldogs and run away with this game late.
Prediction: Tigers 27 Bulldogs 6
They catch Boston College next week and Wake Forest to close the season, so this looms as a must win. Will Miami actually fall to 5-5? Believe it.
Prediction: Terrapins 20 Hurricanes 13
Florida is one of those teams which qualifies as a top 5 or 6 team, though they've hardly shown it lately, sneaking by Georgia 21-14 and Vanderbilt 25-19 in their last two games. They have significant problems in both their running game, overall offensive scheme and especially, kicking. Their defense, which has been overlooked all season, is their real strength, having allowed only 10 TDs and 117 points overall.
One caveat: The Gators have already secured a spot in the SEC championship, so they may not play to their ability. Since they have only one loss, however, they're still eying a shot at the national championship game, so the starters will all play. They just need to win here and hope for Louisville to lose in the next couple of weeks for a shot at the big time.
2nd caveat: The Gamecocks would fall to 5-5 with a loss here, but they get Middle Tennessee on Nov. 18, setting up a dramatic showdown with in-state rival Clemson for bowl positioning on the 25th.
Prediction: Gators 24 Gamecocks 16
The Cornhuskers really would like to finish the Big 12 season with a couple of wins. At 4-2 in conference, they only need 1 win in their last two games to get to the conference title game and they play Colorado next week.
The Aggies are coming off a 17-16 loss to Oklahoma last week and are smarting and looking for somebody to take it out on. Nebraska is not a good choice. The 'Huskers rebounded from consecutive losses to Texas and Oklahoma State to knock off Missouri last week and seem ready to take their game to the next level. That spells trouble for the Aggies who may be looking ahead to a showdown with the Longhorns on Nov. 24.
Prediction: Cornhuskers 28 Aggies 23
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
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