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NCAA College Football 2006 Week 13 Picks
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Fearless Rick's NCAA College Football Week 13 Picks - Early Games
Rick Gagliano | 11/21/06
For games of 11/23-25/06
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
Thursday, November 23, 2006
7:30 pm Boston College (-4, 37.5) at Miami (FL) - The Eagles are soaring, but they need help to capture their first ACC division title and a chance to play for the championship against Georgia Tech.
There's little doubt that they'll win this game against the 5-6 Hurricanes who have now lost 4 straight, so BC needs Maryland to stick it to Wake Forest on Saturday night. The Eagles should be able to get the job done and then wait out a few days to see what their fate will be.
Prediction: Eagles 24 Hurricanes 13
12:00 pm Texas A&M at Texas (-13, 57.5) - The Longhorns need to win here to keep their slim lead over Oklahoma in the Big 12 South. Both the Sooners and Longhorns are 6-1 in the conference, but Texas beat Oklahoma earlier in the season, so holds the tie-break.
While the Aggies are out of conference contention, this is their biggest game of the season against their most hated foe and they will be ready to rock. At 8-3, A&M is still one of the best teams in the country with an offense that rivals the Longhorns. The Aggies amass 410.5 yards per game to Texas' 407.4.
Texas hold a narrow advantage - one point and 25 yards per game - on defense, and in such a huge rivalry game, that isn't much. The Aggies will keep it close or spring the big upset.
Prediction: Aggies 31 Longhorns 28
The Razorbacks, have, however, a very good shot at playing #1 Ohio State for the national championship, so they must win here and then beat Florida.
Arkansas has a Heisman candidate in RB Darren McFadden and a defense that can play lights out, allowing 297.3 yards per game. LSU, though, is #1 in overall defense, giving opponents only 227.7 ypg, and they are brutal at home. The Tigers also have a capable offense, led by QB JaMarcus Russell and a phalanx of receivers and backs.
It will be strength against strength, as the Razorbacks try to limit the passing game of LSU and the Tigers seek to halt McFadden on the ground. Sophomore Casey Dick will start at QB for Arkansas, but if he struggles, capable frosh Mitch Mustain is will be ready to fill in. The margin of victory will be razor-thin here, as these are two of the nation's best.
Prediction: Razorbacks 24 Tigers 21
12:00 pm Florida (-9.5, 42) at Florida State - The Seminoles haven't scared a ranked team in nearly two years and after last year's 34-7 pasting by the Gators, the only advantage is home field.
That's not going to be enough to slow down Florida who sees a clear path to the national championship: Win here, beat Arkansas next week and get ready for Ohio State on January 9.
If Florida wins their last two games with some level of authority (especially this one), they deserve a shot at the Buckeyes.
Prediction: Gators 31 Seminoles 17
The winner gets bragging rights in the state at least for one year and that's big in the overall picture.
On the field, both teams are solid on both offense and defense, and both have had trouble winning close games. Clemson has two one-point losses (to Maryland and BC); the Gamecocks have close defeats to Auburn (24-17), Tennessee (31-24), Arkansas (26-20) and Florida (17-16). South Carolina is on the verge, so is Clemson.
Clemson won last year at South Carolina, 13-9. Expect a similarly-close final score. The Gamecocks have a little bit of an edge, having played through the bitter SEC schedule.
Prediction: Gamecocks 23 Tigers 21
The Cowboys get this game on their home surface, but that's probably not enough of an edge as the Sooners have a huge edge on defense (10 points and 100 yards better). State has the advantage when they have the ball, though by a negligible difference.
Emotion and rivalry aside, talent is clearly on the Sooners' side and they should score a resounding win here.
Prediction: Sooners 41 Cowboys 24
All times Eastern - Click here for late Saturday games
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Fearless Rick has been picking pro and college football for 25 years and you can help keep these picks FREE with a small donation (yes I'm talking to you, you cheap loser).
